Patrick Cockburn on Iraq's Election Result: A Nation disintegrating

[Karmadillo]

We are so screwed. We spend billions of dollars, lose thousands of lives, and we get nothing like what we hoped for. If a Democrat had led us into this mess, the corporate media would be hounding him out of office as you read this. As it stands, they'll simply attempt to spin the disaster as an excuse to install McCain as President in 2008.

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=15&ItemID=9382

Iraq is disintegrating. The first results from the parliamentary election last week show the country is dividing between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions.

Religious fundamentalists now have the upper hand. The secular and nationalist candidate backed by the US and Britain was humiliatingly defeated.

The Shia religious coalition has won a total victory in Baghdad and the south of Iraq. The Sunni Arab parties who openly or covertly support armed resistance to the US are likely to win large majorities in Sunni provinces.
The Kurds have already achieved quasi-independence and their voting reflected that.

The election marks the final shipwreck of American and British hopes of establishing a pro-Western secular democracy in a united Iraq.

Islamic fundamentalist movements are ever more powerful in both the Sunni and Shia communities. Ghassan Attiyah, an Iraqi commentator, said: "In two and a half years Bush has succeeded in creating two new Talibans in Iraq."

The success of the United Iraqi Alliance, the coalition of Shia religious parties, has been far greater than expected according to preliminary results. It won 58 per cent of the vote in Baghdad, while Iyad Allawi, the former prime minister strongly supported by Tony Blair, got only 14 per cent of the vote. In Basra, Iraq's second city, 77 per cent of voters supported the Alliance and only 11 per cent Mr Allawi.

The election was portrayed by President George Bush as a sign of success for US policies in Iraq but, in fact, means the triumph of America's enemies inside and outside the country.

more...

[MrModerate]

1. Here's the problem: if you think the bottom's out of the tub now . . .

Wait until Kurdistan, the Iraqi Republic, and the Caliphate of Basra start fighting over the oil! The best case is the Kurds extend their influence south to sweep up Mosul and Tikrit, the Shiites in the south are satisfied with the fields in their territory, and the Sunnis and whatnot in Baghdad and Anbar get jack shit and learn to like it.

Is that how it'll play out? I don't think so.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

2. Solution, Halliburton can pump unmetered oil, give it to the Sunnis

to put a cork in it sort of..... everybody's happy. Ain't gonna happen.

[MrModerate]

3. Through a pipeline that's blown up every day?

Maybe tankers, if there are any drivers left on the planet stupid or desperate enough to work for KBR.

[Karmadillo]

4. I wish your analysis made no sense,

but I'm afraid you've pretty much outlined the likely outcome.

[The2ndWheel]

6. Then we'll arm them

Then financially support whichever faction seems to be winning, then declare war on that faction after they win about 10 or 15 years from now for the human rights abuses they created in the mid 2000's.

[G_j]

5. a must read. nominated

an excellent overview

so much for a secular, pro-western democracy.