Question for people who understand statistics (and polls)

[Onlooker]

Does this make sense?

"President George W. Bush ranks as the least popular and most bellicose of the last ten U.S. presidents, according to a new survey.

"Only nine percent of the 662 people polled picked Bush as their favorite among the last 10 presidents. John F. Kennedy topped that part of the survey, with 26 percent, closely followed by Bill Clinton (25 percent) and Ronald Reagan (23 percent)."

http://go.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=10617012&src=rss/ElectionCoverage

Don't those percentages add up to 83%, leaving only 17% to divide among the other 7 presidents (which would mean Bush wasn't the least popular)?

I suspect the correct answers concerns the way the poll was conducted and tabulated, but can someone shed any light?

Thanks.

[linazelle]

1. You seem to be on the right track, there's a lie there somewhere nt

[bananas]

2. it says the survey was done by "National Qualitative Centers" in Chicago

I googled that and here is their website,
maybe you should call them and ask.

http://marketsdirectory.com/tmdlisth/1097h.htm

1097h


The Markets Directory
National Qualitative Centers, Inc.

Focus facility
Test kitchen
Field service
Contact: Ilyse Levy
625 North Michigan Avenue
Chicago, IL 60611
Tel: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]
Web site:
September 14, 2005
IL -- Chicago Metro - Center City

[Telly Savalas]

5. Just to be pedantic...

I don't think that's their website. It's their listing at a website that's a directory of market research firms. I don't think National Qualitative Centers has a website, which kind of speaks ill towards their reputation.

[bananas]

9. Thanks for pointing that out. nt

[drm604]

17. Here's their actual website.

http://www.nqcchicago.com/

[Telly Savalas]

18. I have dishonored my family with my inept googling skills.

:cry:

[drm604]

19. You and your family are forgiven.

:D

[Joy Anne]

3. other 6

but still you're right.

[Telly Savalas]

4. My guess is this:

The questions was something like this:

"Which of these among the last 10 presidents is your favorite: JFK, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George Bush, or Jimmy Carter?"

That is, they leave some of the 10 presidents off the list. It's the only explanation I can think of.

Their numbers aside, I'm pretty sure any reputable poll would have Gerald Ford in last place. He may have been better than Dubya, but is there anybody in the U.S. who could honestly say that Ford is their favorite of the last 10 presidents? It's not like he inspired a lot of passion.

By the way, I don't think the market research firm that did the poll has a website, so you can't go there. Strange. :shrug:

[brmdp3123]

11. I'd say you're almost right.

I do understand statistics, and my guess is this-

Bush got the fewest votes of all the presidents that got any votes at all. Some didn't get any votes, so the remaining 17% may have been split between only 2 or 3 others, not 6. I doubt Ford or George H. W. Bush got any votes at all. Carter may not have either.

I realize that this will be an unpopular thing to say in this forum, but it seems that the story is written in such a way as to make it appear that Bush is even more unpopular than he really is-and that's quite a trick.

Real good catch, though. I had read the article, but didn't do the math. As the saying goes-statistics don't lie, but statisticians do!

[Telly Savalas]

12. That's another possiblity I considered after I posted...

but how likely is it that in a sample of 662 only one of Jimmy Carter, GHW Bush, Nixon, LBJ, and Ike make it on the list of presidents chosen? And which of the 5 of them got the 17%? (Let's just assume it wasn't Ford.) If 2 of them were picked, then at least one of the 2 got less than 9%.

[brmdp3123]

14. You're right.

I think there's a simpler explanation-it was a shitty poll.

[Telly Savalas]

16. Nah, I think the guy in post #8 nailed it.

The poll was OK. The article was written in a deceptive manner.

[brmdp3123]

15. You're right.

I think there's a simpler explanation-it was a shitty poll.

[TheBaldyMan]

6. a lot could depend on how/where the questions were asked

If you stood around a really poor area and started polling opinion you'd gget a very different set of answers than you'd get at an affluent country club (don't poll the staff). You can also frontload questions by phrasing them in such a way that people would be inclined to dis/agree with a point.

If you add Bush Jr's 9% and Reagan's 23 % then add Nixon and Bush Sr's percentages you'll probably come up with Chimpy's current approval rating.

[BuyingThyme]

7. I suspect there was more than one question.

[MannyGoldstein]

8. Two Separate Questions

Speaking as a guy who loves statistics (but is sometimes wrong!)... I believe that favorite and least-liked were two different questions.

One question was "Who is your most favorite president of these 10?". 9% picked Bush as their favorite, 26% picked Kennedy, etc. So a few nutty Rethugs like him a lot.

The second question was "Which of these 10 presidents do you like least?". Bush apparently topped the charts on that one - many people think he's the worst.

[bananas]

10. Hey, nice website! nt

[Telly Savalas]

13. That's gotta be it.

I feel dumb for not seeing it.