Trade Deficit Soars: Surprises Economists

[Nordmadr]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in October to a record $68.9 billion despite a drop in the cost of imported oil, as the deficits with China, Canada, the European Union, Mexico and OPEC all hit records, government data showed Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected the trade gap to shrink in October to $62.8 billion, and the surprising growth in the imbalance suggests fourth-quarter economic growth will likely be even weaker than first thought.

The Commerce Department said the deficit widened 4.4 percent from September after growing 11.9 percent the previous month.

Imports of goods and services rose 2.7 percent to a record $176.4 billion while exports increased a smaller 1.7 percent to $107.5 billion.


http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/14/news/economy/trade.reut/index.htm?cnn=yes


But gee, aren't they supposed to be the great predictors on how our lives are going to be? Isn't the economy just doing grand for the vast majority of us? How long have we now operated undera trade deficit? How long can that continue before the house of cards comes down?

Half a trillion in Iraq being predicted now? Not quite what we thought it would cost at the beginning now is it?

How does that utility bill look to you these days? Thinking about those solar panels yet; perhaps a wind generator, wood stove, south facing windows, etc?

How is that ocean current doing? Funky weather eh? Must be a fluke.

Why do I feel like nobody cares? Oh, I know, they don't. Most of them are in that upper 1% I reckon. While I sit here looking at taking loans out of my retirement savings to pay down debt and help me survive. Fuck this system. Time for a new one.

Óláfr

[Beetwasher]

1. These Fucking Economists Are Always Surprised

Idiots.

[ProfessorGAC]

5. Not All Of Us, Beet

The Professor

[Beetwasher]

9. True

Sorry for the blanket slur...If only more were like you, my friend! What I meant was "these economists" as in the one's the newspapers quote and report on, as opposed to one's like you who actually know what they're talking about.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. I Am About To Lead A Campaign. . .

. . .to get universities to rescind their advanced degrees in economics to anyone currently working in the field for government, or lose the accredidation of the school. Drastic action is necessary. Really! This is ridiculous. Complete pinheads getting interviewed who were surprised that the last 4 months of the year would show an increase in trade deficit? Like i said above, that happens EVERY YEAR!

This shouldn't surprise anybody. It's a "Well Duh!"
The Professor

[benburch]

2. The reason?

Christmas.

100% (or close to it) of all Christmas gifts are made elsewhere.

[ProfessorGAC]

3. Which Economists Were Surprised?

I don't know one who was surprised by an uptick in the trade deficit as the middle of the 3rd quarter gives into the holiday 4th quarter. This happens every single year! Anybody fooled by this needs to return their diploma. They obviously learned nothing about analysis and fact finding in college.

The reporter, apparently, needs a better pool of experts to interview. Those they did interview are dumber than dirt.
The Professor

[JHB]

4. Why would it go down? What do we sell anymore?

To balance a trade deficit, other countries have to buy goods from you. But the Great Gurus of Economics have declared that manufacturing is undesireable "Old Economy", haven't they? Saving it is eeeeeeeevil "protectionism".

So what were we supposed to sell overseas to reduce the imbalance?

[RaleighNCDUer]

14. Weapons. nt

[Norquist Nemesis]

6. If they got their numbers from Bush, they shouldn't be surprised

they should expect it.

[SoCalDem]

7. I think we need better economists...STAT

I am always amazed at how stupid some of these people are.. and how brazen.. They seem to think that if they keep pretending that things are getting better, they actually will get better

[RaleighNCDUer]

16. It's the Power of Positive Thinking!

Between Positive Thinking and Prayer, they've got it all locked up. How can they go wrong?!

[applegrove]

8. Just where the hell do they think stuff bought in the lead up to Christmas

& back to school is made? The discount stores are doing great. The stores aimed at the middle class - perhaps with more expensive sourcing on the whole - are tanking.

Why is this a surprize?

[dkofos]

10. I'm not suprised they are suprised.

They never seem to get it right.

I bet P. Krugman wasn't suprised

[mmonk]

12. They forgot we don't make anything to export

[RaleighNCDUer]

13. When I took Econ 101, so many moons ago, my professor surprised

me by saying (approximately) "Economics is an art - and any economist who claims to be able to predict the economy is a liar. Nobody really knows what they're doing."

He went on to explain that economics is much like chaos theory, or meteorology, where the systems are so vast that only the most general predictions can hold true, and no one knows how any single factor is going to affect the overall picture. The 'butterfly effect' may create a thunderstorm, or a balmy day, and the butterfly has no concept that it is responsible for either.

I think he was a bit cynical about his profession.

[ProfessorGAC]

15. Then He's An Idiot

Economics is not an art. The interpretation of the data is an art. Economics itself is not.

Good thing he was only teaching Econ 101, because it doesn't sound like he was qualified for much else.

You can go to any college library in this country and boolean search for academic journals in economics written by those of us from the analytical school. You will see TONS of accurate predictions, such as mine that predicted a recession (in 1985) due to ballooning deficits and the mathematical models that led me to that conclusion. Or the one i had published in 2001 that predicted stagnation if taxes were cut. Did i get those right?

Your ex-prof is either a buffoon or a liar.
The Professor

[RaleighNCDUer]

17. I suspect that he was a Republican, at the time that Reaganomics

was first being put out to the public. That might explain his cynicism. After all, top economists for the government were touting a theory that ran against everything he was taught, but he couldn't bring himself to question his hero's "voodoo economics".

Just a theory - don't really know how he stood. Could just as easily have been a Dem, but not allowed by the department to venture into "politics" and flat out expose Reaganomics for the nonsense it is.

Whatever the case, it kind of soured me on the subject, and I never went past 101. Always been interested, but too damaged by some really bad math teachers in HS, and then this in college, so it all looks like voodoo to me.

[ProfessorGAC]

18. Voodoo! LOL!

Yeah, i've heard that lots of times. Thanks for the chuckle.
The Professor