Prediction re: Iran

[LuckyTheDog]

I hope I am wrong. But I am going to go out on a limb here. I think Bush will attack Iran before March. And my guess is that he won't "waste time" getting Congressional approval. He certainly won't go to the UN.

Again, I hope I am wrong. But the signs are there. :nuke:

[acmavm]

1. Well he's gonna have to do it strictly with air strikes because our

ground troops are busy right now.

[LuckyTheDog]

2. Probably

But he'll have to use ground forces if Iran crosses the border into Iraq afterward.

[acmavm]

3. Well, that's when everything goes straight to hell in a handcart. The

troops have their hands full with the 'insurgency'. I don't see how the could control or contain another army.

[dutchdemocrat]

5. It's won't be a pushover...

Iran possesses a plethora of missiles with variants of many Russian, Unkrainian and Chinese models. Including the Russian Moskit(Sunburn) missiles which has members of congress very concerned.

http://www.fas.org/news/taiwan/2000/e-03-28-00-11.htm

Russia sells Iran “Antiaircraft Missiles”
12/3/2005 12:30:00 PM GMT

Russia approved the sale of anti-aircraft missiles, known by the NATO designation SA-15 Gauntlet, to Iran, part of arms $1 billion worth deal expected to increase Moscow's military cooperation with the Islamic Republic, according to Russian news reports.

News of missiles sale coincided with the U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, Nicholas Burns’s visit to Moscow.

In a radio interview, Mr. Burns said that the U.S. had asked the Russian government to explain the deal, uncovered by Interfax and Vedomosti news agencies.

"We believe Russia is a country that has influence over Iran, and we want Iran to return to negotiations," he said.

SNIP

http://www.islamonline.com/cgi-bin/news_service/middle_east_full_story.asp?service_id=10057

28 January 2005
Two anti-ship missiles identified as the JJ/TL-6B, JJ/TL-10A and KJ/TL-10B, and designed by China for Iran, were displayed at the China Air Show in November 2004. Knowledgeable sources affirm that the missiles are identical to Iran’s Nasr and Kosar, also known as the TL-6 and TL-10. Jane’s Defense Weekly states that the FL-8 and FL-9 also represent previous designations for these missiles.
––“China Reported to Start Marketing of Missiles Designed for Iran,” Middle East Newsline, 28 January 2005.

8 March 2005
Peter Pry, a senior Congressional Commission member, has testified that Shehab-3 test flights deemed successful by Iran, despite the occurrence of in-flight explosions, may indicate that Tehran is developing an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) warhead.
--"Shahab Break-Ups Suggest Possible EMP Trial," Jane's, 1 May 2005.

17 March 2005
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office states that 18 Kh-55 missiles were smuggled to Iran and China during the Kuchma administration. The probe into the illegal sales has resulted in the indictment or arrest of at least six arms dealers. Member of Parliament Omelchenko asserts that a Russian, Oleg Orlov, and a Ukrainian known as E.V. Shilenko arranged the deal in 2000 by using a "fake contract and end-user certificate" and exported the missiles through Russia's national arms dealer and an arm of Ukraine's weapons exporting agency, UkrSpetsEksport. President Yushchenko has called for an investigation into the matter.
--"U.S. Catches China Transferring WMD Tech to Iran," World Tribune.com, 18 March 2005.

April 2005
A Washington Times report reveals that Iran paid $49.5 million for the six Kh-55 missiles it received in an air shipment from Ukraine between May and June 2001. The shipments had been misleadingly identified as oil-pipeline material.
--Bill Gertz, "Missiles Sold to China and Iran," Washington Times, 6 April 2005.

5 May 2005
Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani has stated that Iran's Shahab-3 missiles are comprised entirely of local parts and are of Iranian design, and that production is ongoing.
--"Iran Says Shahab-3 Missile Entirely Iranian," Agence France-Presse, 5 May 2005.

21 May 2005
Ambassador to Russia, Gholamreza Shafe'i says Iran may buy S-300 surface to air missile systems from Russia.
--"Program Summary: Moscow NTV News Russian 1500 21 May 05," Moscow NTV, 23 May 2005, in FBIS Document IAP2005052301002.

27 June 2005
The United States claims China has provided Iran with weapons of mass destruction components and technical expertise. Items include dual-use missile components, raw materials, and chemical weapons related equipment.
--"China Supplies Arms to Iran, Sudan," Middle East Newsline, 27 June 2005.

4 July 2005
Russian daily Kommersant reports that Rosoboronexport, a Russian state-owned arms selling agency, is negotiating a contract to upgrade three Iranian submarines with Club-S missile systems.
--"Paper: Iran in Talks to Refurbish Subs," Moscow Times, 5 July 2005.

1 August 2005
According to Kanwa Defense Review, the China Shipping and Trading Company (CSTC) plans to sell Iran 10 “China-Cat” missile boats, which could be modified with the Iranian indigenous TL-10 or NOOR (C802) serial anti-ship missile system. Kanwa also reports that China has transferred the army version HQ7 air defense missile and that Iran has started production of the C802 land-to-sip missile, also known as Nur (NOOR).
─ “Kanwa: China Exports OPVs to Thailand, Iran; Iran’s Plan Described,” Kanwa Defense Review, 1 August 2005, in FBIS Document CPP20050803000124.

9 August 2005
Iran’s Defense Minister, Ali Shamkhani, says Iran’s Shahab-3 missiles “are now accurate to within one meter of their target.” Iranian General Ahmad Vahid adds that the missiles’ range has also been boosted from 1,300 kilometers to 2,000 kilometers.
─ “Military Attacks Cannot Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Expertise: Defense Minister,” Tehran Times, 10 August 2005; “Iran Would Rather be Hit by Sanctions than Back Down Over Nuclear Program,” Associated Press, 9 August 2005.

30 August 2005
Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najar says Iran's main military objectives are the development of its air defenses and ballistic missiles, therefore Iran will continue expanding its missile industry to meet the needs of the military. "One of the major projects pursued by this ministry concerns the manufacturing of deterrent weapons, and the manufacturing of Shahab-3 Missile is in this connection, and this will not be halted." Najar adds.
"Iran Defense Minister: Non-Peaceful use of Nuke Technology Religiously Forbidden," Mehr, 30 August 2005, in FBIS Document IAP20050830011035; "Iran's new Defense Minister Reiterates Right to Nuclear, Missile Technology," Iranian Student News Agency, 30 August 2005, in FBIS Document IAP20050830011034.

http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/Missile/1788_4967.html

[SpiralHawk]

15. Our pilots will face the Hawk anti-aircraft missiles that Ollie North

-- the NeoCon Republican Has Been, Pretend Patriot, felon, and alleged "Radio Commentator" -- secured for them.

Oliver North made sure Iran had our sophisticated missiles as part of the traitorous Republican Iran-Contra, drugs-for-arms, deals. Another example of the Republican culture of corruption -- and its propensity for teason against the United States of America.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_North

[tx_dem41]

4. Define "attack" n/t

[LuckyTheDog]

14. Probably air strikes

Possibly using nukes.

[...of J.Temperance]

16. My prediction is that NOBODY is going to attack Iran, because

If they did, then I think that Russia and China would say something about it.

For example, Russia has extensive oil contracts with Iran, they've also just signed a deal to sell $1 billion worth of military hardware to Iran.

Nobody is going to attack Syria either...last year Iran stated that they would consider any attack on Syria as being also an attack on Iran.

So Russia and China would have a say in this too.

Bush Inc. would LOVE to bomb the crap out of both Iran and Syria, however Bush Inc. is in no position to be able to carry out the insanity that they wish...any attack on Iran and Syria simply would NOT be tolerated by the world community in the way that the attack on Iraq was...and yes the world community did tolerate it, they could have joined together as a unit and stopped it, but they talked the talk but they didn't walk the walk.

The problem for Bush Inc. is that there are bigger dogs in the pack, Russia and China, and even more difficult for Bush Inc. is that Russia and China would be one unit and that's a huge dog...and Bush Inc. simply cannot compete against that.

If you can't run with the big dogs, then you better get off the porch...and Bush Inc. pretty much would be pushed off the porch.

Just my opinion.

[LuckyTheDog]

17. Maybe

That sound plausible. But I don't think Bush is rational enough to see his limitations.

:crazy:

[...of J.Temperance]

19. Yes well, you do

Have a good point there...Junior is insane.

[Punkingal]

6. We know he wants to...

That's for sure.

[notadmblnd]

7. I don't think Iran will bend over and take it like Iraq did

unlike Iraq their military wasn't decimated during the first gulf war.

[WLKjr]

8. I saw in the paper the other day that Iran

wanted us to be involved with thier nuclear powerplants. Was I reading the article wrong?, it was in my local paper.

[Loonman]

9. He can't go after Iran

Russia will be rightfully pissed and won't stand for it.

[mr blur]

10. Well the President of Iran isn't helping:

<snip>
Iranian leader denies Holocaust

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has courted further controversy by explicitly calling the Nazi Holocaust of European Jewry a "myth".

"They have created a myth today that they call the massacre of Jews and they consider it a principle above God, religions and the prophets," he said.
<snip>

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4527142.stm

[Strelnikov_]

11. Gonna Take A Draft

Here's the way I think it will play out.

Step 1) ‘Israel’ strikes Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

Step 2) Iran lash's out at US forces in gulf region. Look for the Kitty Hawk and John F. Kennedy steaming up and down the coast of Iran supporting operations, in harm's way.

Step 3) Our Leader goes in front of Congress, says that we are victims of an unprovoked attack, like Pearl Harbor, calls for a draft to raise sufficient military strength to deal with the rogue nation of Iran.

Step 4) Occupy SW corner of Iran, flatlands (tank country) where oil is. Brutally suppress any remaining opposition in Iraq with our new draftee legions to liberate them from the oppressive burden of oil wealth.

Step 5) Give massive contracts to Halliburton and other buddies to sell off the Iranian oil as 'reparations' for their dastardly attack.

Step 6a) The Oligarchs get rich.

Step 6b) The rest of us go broke or die trying to hold off the hordes at the Cheney Line at the foot of the Zagros mountains. Of course, this part of the substep is not that important to the 'leadership'.

Ever wonder what Israel needs long range F-15's and 500 recently delivered bunker buster bombs for? Bombing Gaza?

http://globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-strikes.htm

On 21 September 2004 Israel acknowledged that it was buying 500 BLU-109 bunker-buster bombs, which could be used to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. The bombs, which can penetrate more than 7 feet of reinforced concrete, are part of a $319 million package of air-launched bombs being sold to Israel under America's military aid program.

I figured the above time line was to be executed a year or more ago. The Iraq resistance has delayed things, but Our Great Leader is rapidly approaching the point where he will have to act. Iran will be starting an oil trading floor using Euros in March, after all.

[Windy]

12. If a draft is started, I predict civil war

The war will hit close to home then and peoople will revolt, and not just dems.

[Just Me]

13. That euro switch REALLY pisses off the corporacrats.

May have to start bombing before that happens. x(

[enigma000]

18. Unless Israel does it

Logistically speaking I think they could do it. They have the planes and bunker buster bombs. I'm unsure what the IAF's mid air refueling capabilities are. Without any they are looking at one way suicide missions. They would also need overflight permission from Jordan and Iraq. Or Saudi Arabia. I can imagine the thought of a Nuclear-armed Iran is not a happy one for the Saudis.
The pilots either land on American air bases in Iraq or use the cyanide pill option.

Of course Iran has placed it's most sensitive sites in residential areas - next to schools etc. So be prepared to see dead kids on the news 24/7 for a month. Unfortunately there is no way around this other than not attacking.

Mind you, the US is already in the region and has the firepower in place. And what, its not like its possible for the world to hate Americans even more at this point.