Happy Peak Oil Day!

[Dogmudgeon]

Today is the day that Kenneth Deffeyes predicted would be the day when oil production turned from positive to negative, ushering in the end of civilization, maybe.

Happy Motoring™!

--p!

[AlienGirl]

1. Interesting!

What did he base his prediction on? Why this specific day?

Tucker

[Dogmudgeon]

2. I think it was close to the mathematical prediction

He recently gave an interview where he said that after he did the math, it showed that the Peak Oil point came at the end of 2005; he chose Thanksgiving for its symbolic value, as well as being so close to the actual calculated date.

Like most calculations, it was based on a series of Best Guesses and Wild-Assed Assumptions. In reality, the date could have come as early as 2001 or could be delayed until 2010 or 2012. (Hopefully not right on Dec. 23, 2012!) The actual "point" will only be calculable well after it has been reached because of the usual fluctuations in production and the market. For instance, right now, we are seeing some strenuous effort being spent on keeping the price of oil low, to prevent a scandal over post-Katrina price gouging. But this winter will be something else.

(As I write this, it's snowing in the northern 'burbs of Philly, our earliest first snow in years.)

We have an on-going discussion about energy issues in the Energy / Environment forum. It's just a little apocalyptic. :)

--p!