Please Don't Shoot, But I'm Taking The Bird Flu Seriously

[Mike03]

I've been riveted to the various threads here regarding the avian flu over these past several weeks. I'm a little bit surprised by the sheer number of folks who are dismissing it completely as nothing more than blatant fearmongering or a scheme. I don't blame people one bit for being cynical about these conveniently timed avian flu warnings, or questioning the cozy financial connections between the administration and Big Pharma companies Gilead and Roche. This angers me too. In spite of that, I'm taking it seriously nonetheless--which is not to say I live in a frenzied state of fear but rather that I am simply prepared--and here are some thoughts:

Compared to the rest of the industrialized world, the United States was relatively late to demonstrate concern about a possible flu pandemic. Many other nations whose leaders I'm not cynical about have been concerned about this for some time. Other nations also have in place plans to restrict travel, close schools and borders, etc... That would seem to exclude the possibility that the bird flu is some conspiracy cooked up in a White House backroom. I don't doubt for a second that Rummy and Company are exploiting this for personal self-interest, but the concern about a flu pandemic was pre-existing.

Is the Bush administration exploiting the avian flu to cultivate fear and distract us? Most certainly, but that does not necessarily mean a threat does not exist. Some experts say there is no threat, but a lot of experts--domestic and abroad--say there is.

Will some people profit from a flu pandemic? Yes, I suppose one ugly truth about human nature is that there are people who look upon disasters as opportunities, to wit, Brit Hume getting almost sexually aroused by the prospect of day trading the morning of the terrorist explosions in Britain. It is sick, but I regard immoral greed as a separate issue from that of being individually prepared, not just for a pandemic, but for any type of unexpected disaster, or any disruption of supplies caused by panic or some other cause that could make it hard to get food, water or utilities for a period of time.

It's possible to be prepared without enriching the coffers of the companies that produce Tamiflu and purported vaccines. For one thing, I have not seen a shred of evidence that Tamiflu does, or should be expected to, prevent Avian Flu. On the contrary, I have heard that it does not. Secondly, it's my understanding that from the moment of the first confirmed human-to-human transmission to the time a vaccine is produced can take approximately eight months to a year. That is unlikely to be of much help, as pandemics advance rapidly. There's no guarantee that a vaccine would work if the flu strain is rapidly mutating. Besides, the LAST place in the world I'd want to be in the middle of a flu outbreak is a doctor's office or clinic. (I'm not an infectious disease specialist, so please feel free to correct me if my suppositions are wrong.)

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't the most surefire way to avoid being infected during a flu pandemic to avoid contact with other human beings while the flu is sweeping through our cities? I have heard that pandemics are fast moving, so this period of time would be weeks rather than months. So I would prepare for this as I would for any other sort of disaster or prolonged disruption--have several weeks or months worth of food, water and supplies, so that there is no need to go out and expose myself to contagion.

I guess my point is that in this instance I'm not going to allow my disgust with the ulterior motives of politicians with respect to the flu deter me from being prepared for it in the event it may occur. There is no downside that I can think of to being prepared for a disaster.

Another thought: Even if a full-scale "pandemic" does not evolve from the Avian Flu, or it mutates into something fairly innocuous and non-deadly, I can almost guarantee that the instant a human-to-human case is diagnosed (particularly in North America) there will be a panicked run on grocery stores. If an actual pandemic occurs, there will be shortages and businesses (including utilities) will probably shut down altogether. So it is probably a good idea, for those who wish to stock away some supplies, to err on the side of caution and do it sooner rather than later. Human to human transmission may never occur, or it may occur in two years, or it may occur next week.

I am NOT trying to spread fear. I am just trying to offer a rational, logical alternative to completely dismissing the possibility of this happening. My philosophy is that preparation is the antidote to fear.

[soothsayer]

1. It has to go thru 5 mutations to become a human prob. So far, in 9

years, it's gone thru NONE.

Wake me when there are a millions of people dead from it in China and I'll see if I can work up some fear about it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

122 are dead

and right now there are two cases that MIGHT be patient zero

Once it breaks into a patient zero kind of a scenario with multiple clusters, it is exponential. By the time there are thousands dead, and admit there is a problem to yourself, this means hundred of thousands infected... and by the time we wake you up because there are millions dead in china, there will be millions dead in the US

(I am using here the worst case scenario)

But if you understood anything about epidemic disease and how it develops, and moves, you would understand that you should worry at the point that the WHO is worried right now (and they have been warning about this far longer than Bush Co found it)

What they are trying very hard with close monitoring of regions of the world where it is pretty much endemic among bird populations... is precisely to avoid the worst case scenario.

It is your cavalier attitude though that allows for those worst case scenarios to develop.

People should go to college and take a course in epidemiology and if you can one in virology

By the way, knowledge is power, and understanding this does not mean I am in a panic, not at all... I just pay attention to the WHO.

Oh and to add... you do realize this is the same bird flu that ahem... created that problem called the 1918 epidemic and it has gone trough mutations already. READ the Wolrd Health Organization site

[northzax]

18. 122 out of what, exactly?

how many people have been exposed to the bird flu? 1 million? 5 million? ten million? we have no idea. but it makes a difference, right?

it's only the 'same bird flu' as 1918 in the sense that the Nazis were the same Germans as teh Hessians fighting in the US Revolution.

yes, it is inevitable that an outbreak will occur, but the way to deal with it is to have a decent public health system. how much preventative care could the 10 billion being spent on an emergency basis provide? how many more lives would be saved by that than preparing for an epidemic that is actually unlikely to happen in any given year?

Any virus could mutate into a human-infection form, the way to prepare is infrastructure and basic medical care. not by worring about a pandemic.

very few conditions are in place for a pandemic in this country, so I'm not as concerned as I might otherwise be.

in the meantime, I wash my hands, the single best way to avoid the flu.

[Inland]

21. You put your finger on it.

Any virus can mutate.

Therefore the best way to protect oneself and the country is having a non-specific set of responses, like, handwashing and a public health system all the time.

It isn't about bird flu. It's about the fact nobody has called off evolution and with people moving across the planet, spread of new infectious diseases from one corner of the globe to another is easier. Our efforts at disease prevention must keep pace.

[northzax]

22. evolution, smevolution

didn't you get the memo?

[mainer]

29. 122 out of approximately 240 known cases of infection

The mortality rate is around 50 - 75 percent.

[northzax]

30. there has never been a study

looking at other cases in the region. We have no real idea if the other 5 million people who come into close contact with the infected birds were infected, had a runny nose for a couple of days and got over it. No one has ever looked at it. We simply don't know.

[mainer]

32. We DO know that the mortality rate of those diagnosed is 50 - 75 %.

And that is documented. Anything else is a wild guess.

[northzax]

38. true, but what we don't know

is how many people have been undiagnosed because they don't have symptoms. Maybe this only affects .5 percent of the population? who knows? we don't and that's a problem. Maybe there are ten million people walking around Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and China with antibodies and only 200+ people ever got sick. You develop antibodies to things all the time, without even knowing it. Maybe they don't have it, and the disease is really that bad. we need to know. because frankly, a disease that kills .25% of the population exposed to it, or fewer, is muc hless of a problem than one that kills 60%.

this is research that must be done, and it isn't, for political reasons inside the countries in question.

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. Ok here is a clue for you

this is the same family that ran across the world in 1918-1919

It COULD have been stoped at Ft Riley KS if the army had listened to the Medical Corp. As they say, they did not... they firmly implanted head in... sand...

Read what you wish, but I beg of you, get informed

[northzax]

59. and it's the same family

that crosses the globe every decade or so. Every epidemiologist is calling for the exact same study I just asked for. as of today, you have a disease that is non-communicable between humans, has infected an unknown number of people and has killed only 122 of them. I know that sounds callous, but there are a billion and a half people in Asia, 122 isn't that many. that many people die of Malaria every few hours. That many people die of TB every 12 hours. That many people die of HIV every day or so. That many people die of diarrhea every few days. That many people die of renal failure, in the US alone, every week.

So, rather than spending tens of billions of dollars on a one-off panic defense against a disease that, frankly, is mythical (no, the virus exists, but the human-human transmission does not, maybe it will evolve and burst into the human population, maybe it won't, but even if it does, the conditions would have to be perfect to create a pandemic, it would be an odd chance of fate. given history, it has a 1 in 20 or so chance of developing into a human-human strain, and only a 1-100 or so chance that it will remain as virulent at the time it does so) that will be worthless against any other disease, let's instead spend that money on developing a decent public health system and immunology capacity that will adapt to other diseases as they come along. And while we're at it, lets' spend 5 billion of that to combat malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 1 in 4 children dies of malaria. 5 billion dollars a year would cut that rate to 1 in 20, saving 4-5 million lives a year.

So yes, it turns out that I am rather informed. Sorry to disappoint you. Yes, build a decent viral response system, better labs, better research and a faster turnaround, not just for this virus, but for all non-retroviruses. Spend that money to vaccinate every person against HPV, the link to cervical cancer alone will save 10,000 lives in the US every year, in perpetuity. spend that money, not building a wall against the mongols, but in a flexible, realistic defense system, then we'll be more ready, if the 1-200,000 or so odds come up this year, or next year, and we deal with widespread, highly contagious, strongly virulent bird flu. I would much rather spend my money dealing with the 1:5 odds of Malaria in Africa than the 1:200,000 odds of bird flu. Spend ten million to do a decent study of the exposed population in asian countries before we start panicking, huh?

[nadinbrzezinski]

66. Here is the big difference between

the ever so popular warnings and the bush regime... they are trying to create a panic. How do you sleep at night? I do very well thank you.

Now HSN1 is believed to be the same one as 1918, just has not made the jump yet...

It is like preparing for a hurricane... boring... real boring... and from the POV of the media a non story... until... the hurricane that everybody has been predicting hits.

Now should Bush go on national tv and say we have a plan? No... especially when his so called plan is not in agreement to anything recommended by eperts... troops does not a plan make.

And sorry to disappoint you but the last of these pandemics occurred in 1963 iirc, why the WHO started sounding the alarm back in 1995

Does this mean that everything else has come to a screeching halt at the WHO? Hell no, the Malaria abatement campaign continues, for example with the issuing of mosquito nets...

They are not the ones going crazy, but they don't have their heads in the sand going won't happen. They have issued strategic plans on how governments should react to this once if and when it hits. Those are rational plans, which incidentally Bush's plan does not comply with.

But the disinformation posted by many, and the tin foil theories are disingenuous at best, or denial at worst.

[northzax]

70. just out of curiosity

do you have a proposal about what should be done? I made one, you are the federal government, you are about to spend 15 billion dollars. what are you going to spend it on?

now. a list. or stop playing chicken little.

if you need more money, tell us what you need and how you'd spend it. I made my list, now its your turn. And please justify why this is a higher priority than spending the equivalent sum of money on any other disease preparation.

Carte blanche. go.

[nadinbrzezinski]

74. Yes

download the WHO Strategic Plan, and send it to your congress critters, that is the model CDC shoudl be following right now

[progressivebydesign]

92. And people in 1918 died from childbirth and dental infections.

We don't exactly have the same level of health care delivery and care.

[progressivebydesign]

91. Yes, but in areas without good health care access.

So I haven't really jumped into thinking that the flu, if it mutates to human to human contact, will have that type of mortality in developed areas with good health care. You are referring to a mortality rate for people in villages that raise chickens for a living and eat the ones that die of illness.. drinking their raw blood.

[gkhouston]

96. during a pandemic, how many of us will be able to

be hospitalized? There are only so many beds, so many doctors and nurses, so many respirators. People have died of this flu while receiving antibiotics, etc. in hospitals.

[nadinbrzezinski]

98. Worst and this is the absolute worst case scenario for the US

Medical system is wide system collapse... the best case, we have slow moving clusters and isolation procedures work... the truth I fear will be in between with regional collapses.

;-)

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. READ the WHO site

that is all I can ask you to do

[pitohui]

36. oh come on

they used to say the 1918 pandemic was a swine flu, now they've changed their story to line rumsfeld's pockets, alfred hitchcock would be proud

if you have money to throw away on the avian flu hoax, fine, i have a city to rebuild

money wasted on avian flu hysteria is money taken out of the pockets of real people living in disaster zones on our gulf coast right now

[nadinbrzezinski]

42. No they actually managed to get some good samples

out of tissue samples five years ago, and they did a genetic map... guess what, they were wrong

Also swine flu, since the little piggies are susceptible to both human and bird flues are believed to be one of the petri dishes where the mutations occur.

This only increases in industrial farming.

[Name removed]

45. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[progressivebydesign]

89. 122 are dead from BIRD to human contact...

in fact, if you want to get really disgusted, many of those are dead because they indulged in a lovely little delicacy that involves raw fowl blood pudding. (barf!).

The two people you are referring to, if I'm correct, were found not to be ill with that after all. They were concerned, because the two became ill without being near or eating the diseased birds. But were found to have another illness.

If it mutates, and it won't necessarily mutate, to human to human, then I will be freaked out. But really, what is the point of freaking out now?

[nadinbrzezinski]

95. Nobody is freaking out

at this point this is purely education... so people realize the POTENCIAL of what this could do... key word potencial.

It is like preparing for a hurricane, most of the time you go DUH why did I board that house... and the more that happens, the less people beleive the authorities. Last year SARS was the key word (the chinese hit it for a while) and the only reason it did not go the way it could was the effective action of health officials (and I am quietly praying we have the same result once it makes the jump, it would make me very happy if they manage this one)

So nobody is getting freakced, at least I am not... just check on the WHO every so often...notice not CDC, and for that I thank George.

[MercutioATC]

33. By the time "millions are dead in China", it'll be too late.

No hype, just common sense.

If the WHO and CDC are concerned, I think it's something to look at. We're certainly due for a flu pandemic and with modern travel, it'll spread quickly.

[Avalux]

47. Please provide scientific data to back up your premise

Making a statement like this with no data is :thumbsdown:

[nadinbrzezinski]

50. Goggle this

World Health Organization and Avian Influenza, happy readying

[Avalux]

73. Thanks. I think you misunderstood me.

I was replying to misinformation without a link. :hi:

[Tiggeroshii]

52. If you can't get the regular flu so easily i'm guessing it'll be just as

difficult to get this one. If you protect yourself well fro the regular flu, you should be okay with this. it's retracted the same way, according to a health expert on NPR the other day...

[nadinbrzezinski]

57. Regular flu you have SOME resistance

they change from year to year (hence the vaccine change) but you have some resistance.... Nobody has seen this since 1918, or actually very few people are still around that were around then. You have NO, zero, ZILCH immunity to this... why it has a far better chance of becoming world wide pandemic... for the record we have them every so often, 20-30 year time frame... or once a generation.. pandemics that is. The last one was in the 1960s... we are overdue

[Tiggeroshii]

78. Just be extra careful

..if everybody's extra careful at pretecting themselves from germs, they should be okay. Of course that wouldnt happen in a global pandemic, but it's important to consider for one'sself.

[nadinbrzezinski]

80. Basic hygiene is basic

whether there is a bird flu out there or not

;-)

that goes without saying

[progressivebydesign]

94. Never had the flu in 46 years. Even tho my Mom had the Hong Kong flu

That pandemic in the 60's was nasty, but for everyone who lived around my Mom, not one of us caught it from her. So, you're right, the flu is not easily spread.

[ixion]

2. what one person wants to do is their own business... however

I don't want the government to use this as yet another stepping stone to a fully locked-down police state, which is exactly what they're doing now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. that is why their plan flies in the face of any plan

that the WHO has proposed, go to the WHO and download the strategic plan and send it to your reps

[whatever4]

3. Thing is, scare tactics don't have to be empty to be effective

I agree with you, I'm not sure anyone knows the real danger from bird flu. But I know, real disaster or not, this admin is not above using it, inflating or deflating as suits their purposes.

Between quarantines and medical issues, whether it turns out to be a fake concern or not, the actions of this admin toward this flu could be a problem for any of us.

So I say, either way, it's a concern.

[rfkrfk]

4. avoid travel to Toronto

The epicenter of Bird Flu.

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. Wrong, yuo are thinking SARS

which is NOT bird flu... the epicenter for Bird Flu and SARS incidetnally, is SE Asia.

As to SARS the reason why it did not beome a larger problem is the National Heatth system in Canada worked like a charm, and the WHO placed Toronto on a five day health travel advisory.

Did you know NYC had three confirmed cases?

[pitohui]

37. sheesh, it was clearly a joke

avian flu is the new SARS except SARS actually did spread around the world killing zillions -- oops, well, at least killing dozens -- of people

how much $$$ do you want to put in rumsfeld's pocket?

how long do you want to enrich the B.F.E.E. at the expense of the rest of us?

open yr eyes

there is a REAL disaster, going on right now, everyone i know has either lost their home or had severe damage to their home or has refugees in their home

avian flu is a cruel distraction, billions of dollars to be wasted for nothing

i'm outraged and you should be too

[nadinbrzezinski]

44. SARS killed quite a number of people

the fact that the MSM did not cover all of it is not your concern

Also the response to SARS worked... and you should be praying that the response to this works as well, so you can tell me next year that the next thing WHO will start warning about (incidentally the first warnings for Bird Flu and pandemics started in 1995, amazing how well the WHO falls on the Bush plans, ain't it), is just another hoax

To make an analogy you may understand, most hurricanes don't do as much damage as disaster experts predict... yet Katrina, and her effects on NOLA, have been predicted since at least 2000.... guess what happens when the law of averages catches up?

Oh and when it comes to public health, having worked in the field, I don't take this as a joke...

[northzax]

62. 1995? wouldn't that be Bill Clinton?

did he have a plan for it?

in ten years, the virus has yet to mutate to a form that humans can spread to other humans. Maybe it will, eventually, but it's just as likely, from a statistical standpoint, that it won't happen in a place that infects millions of people, especially since there is monitoring at so many sites in Asia. Maybe it will kill a poulty farmer in Hungary? but the odds that it will explode, simultaneously, in several populated places is really pretty low.

oh, and as it stands? the virus kills people so fast they are unlikely to spread it to that many people. hospitalized people tend not to infect people on trains. It is more likely to burn itself out in a population, killing faster than it can spread.

[nadinbrzezinski]

69. when the first warnings came in

CDC started working on it, up to 2000 CDC was taking it seriously. They were working with multiple organizations world wide, just not making a fanfare out of it

You may remember that then bush got elected and the CDC has been gutted and fully politiced.

[northzax]

63. deleted- dupe (nt)

[jim3775]

13. Bullshit, toronto in NOT "the epcenter of bird flu"

Toronto wasn't even the epicenter of SARS, China was.

[DemFromMem]

5. You're not saying anything invalid

Just because every single threat we face in this country has been politicized by the White House, does not mean we can shut our eyes. Quite the opposite. We need to be more vigilant because the President can't be trusted to identify and manage threats or to keep his eye on the ball. I certainly think, for example, that he's botched it on homeland security and that the Democrats need to seize this issue and make it clear that we're the more responsible of the two parties when it comes to preventing terrorism and managing disasters. As for the bird flu, we need to closely scrutinize the proposals and make sure that they really are more than political posturing. In a few months, the flu will have left the headlines but not the real chance that we'll see a pandemic in the next few years. Democrats need to make sure that proposals the Administration are making are not buried. Remember Bush's proposals to help wipe out AIDS in Africa a couple of years ago. Never got funded as a I recall and that was the last we heard from the White House on it. We need to hold Bush's feet to the fire on whatever promises he makes.

[AZBlue]

24. Well said!

We can not dismiss this as hype. It is real.

But we also must watch and control what the government plans to do about it. So far I've heard plans that are not enough (vaccines to cover only 2% of the population) and those that are absurd (military quarantine of infected populations).

We need a real plan! NOW! If we wait until we really need it, it's already too late.

[Mike03]

68. Superb

I wish I had been as clear as you are here.

I'm not depending on this administration for anything--I hope I didn't suggest that I trust them on this one iota, because I don't. Like you said, I don't think they are competent enough to organize a picnic let alone orchestrate or manage a flu pandemic. I have no intention whatsoever of taking any vaccines or shots or anything they offer up. Nor would I ever support any kind of martial law or mass quarantines. If that scenario really came to fruition, I really have no idea how I would react. Maybe I'm being unreasonably naive in assuming I would even be allowed to stay put here in my house and wait it out. Bush is so grossly incompetent that his ways of "handling" a pandemic would most likely spread it.

Thanks for posting this.

[SmokingJacket]

6. I believe the risk is real, but small.

I would hope that our government is doing all it can to prepare for this and *all* likely health disasters. I want them to be funding research and stockpiling vaccines, and to have plans available in case such a thing happens.

HOWEVER... what good does holding press conferences and terrifying people do? Nada. All it does it take the spotlight off the crimes of the adminstration and off Iraq.

Bush has taught me to be very very cynical about the motivations of his goverment. He's never cared about the deaths of ordinary citizens before, so I must ascribe his sudden awareness of the threat to ulterior motives. Profiting big pharma is one that comes to mind.

[Mojorabbit]

19. It might cause

some people to prepare personally for an emergency. It is not like the govt is going to be able to come to anyone's rescue.

[SmokingJacket]

20. Frankly, I can't see that stockpiling two weeks of food is going to

help much. A pandemic will surely last longer than that.

And anyway, we should all make basic disaster preparation. Katrina should have taught us that.

[Mojorabbit]

23. I have

almost a years supply of food in my pantry. But still any preparation is better than none.

[pitohui]

40. what katrina taught us is that you'll be separated from yr supplies

you can't evacuate w. a year's worth of food and WATER, ppl had a hard time carrying 72 hours worth, the amt recommended that you bring into a shelter

i was separated from most of my supplies and belongings for a month

stockpiling too much is money down a rathole in a disaster, i won't make that mistake again

[nadinbrzezinski]

46. for this they will not be opening shelters

take a class in epidiemology, you may learn a thing or two

[Mike03]

75. That Two-Week Figure came from

an interview by talk show host John Rothmann (KGO, San Francisco) with talk show host and scientist Bill Wattenberg. Wattenberg threw out the two week figure based on studies of how quickly influenza moves through towns and cities.

I also believe it is way too low. I'm set up for a few months, actually, but I realize I'm a bit extreme in that regard.

[slackmaster]

7. Everybody Was Bird-Flu Fighting

Da da da da dum, da-dum.

How's THAT for a song to get stuck in your head all day?

:evilgrin:

[Pepper32]

115. LOL

I cam't get the tune to stop playing in my head now.

[FearofFutility]

117. ROTLFMAO!

I can't understand why this is such a heated topic. It is a FACT that there will be another pandemic. This may or may not be it. The bottom line is to simply be prepared. The media loves to jump on bandwagons and to sensationalize everything which can lead to hysteria. They may or may not be right this time. The WHO and CDC are simply stating the facts. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PANDEMIC! Be informed, be prepared.

[renate]

8. National Geographic did a big story on it recently

and I don't think they're in the fear-mongering business (except in a constructive way, to warn us about global warming, destruction of the environment, etc). They sure predicted what happened to New Orleans.

Their bird-flu article scared me to death.

:scared:

[nickyt]

11. No shootin' from here, Mike! You get to react/think/prepare any way

you please. And now that we all know that we are 99% "on our own" as far as national disasters go, why not have a food/water/candles/mask stash set aside, just in case? Makes sense to me!

[bigscott]

14. All infectious diseases should be taken seriously

But most usually are NOT (AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria) until they threaten Americans. Bird flu (being a misleading name as fowl are a natural resevoir for most strains of flu) may or may not mutate into a easliy transmissable strain. I doubt rushing off to take a course in epidemiology or virology would help - if anything, sitting in classrooms with 30+ other people who may or may not be infected may or may not increase your chnces of being infected yourself.

you may or may not see where I am going with this.

The pandemic influenza of 1918 had MANY contributing factors - the LACk of antibiotics probably played the largest role by allowing bacterial pneumonia (which developed in the majority of flu (virus)cases)to kill off the patient. I recently read an extremely interesting book on the 1918 pandemic which postulated that co-infection with another agent may have lead to the large mortality - that agent? anthrax!

[rfkrfk]

26. avoid air travel if possible

if you must travel by air,
avoid sitting next to a person who is coughing,
or has died from bird flu.

[holboz]

12. I'm more worried about *co's ulterior motives

I see this administration planning on making this a BIG SCARE, it doesn't matter if it happens or not. We've seen that this administration loves to scare people into giving up liberties and freedoms. And *co has no problem in overplaying something or making it seem like a big threat in order to achieve whatever objective they have.

As a result I'm in two minds about it. I didn't go and buy duct tape and plastic sheeting when Homeland Security idiots suggested it because I thought it was bogus and stupid (I was supposed to seal my family in the house so we suffocated to death???). But the fact that I live in a state that is a HUGE poultry producer (Arkansas) makes me a bit concerned. OH DAMN THESE WHAT IFS!

[nadinbrzezinski]

48. Learn to separatre bush's hype from fact

and EDUCATE your delegation... easy to do these days... go to the WHO site and download the PDFs, print them and send them or just attach them and send them

[Pepper32]

116. How dare you! Get SERIES

Bush* wouldn't do something that horrible. :sarcasm:

[SheilaT]

15. There is absolutely nothing new

in the general warning that in any given year a strain of flu can mutate and become deadly and pass around the world rather quickly. What I'm bothered by is the insistence that this year this particular virus is likely to make that jump.

There are also essential differences between now and 1918 in important ways that I think would lessen the spread of an otherwise deadly flu virus. One is a greater prevalence of hand washing. A vastly greater prevalence. In 1918 a lot of people in New York City itself did not have running water.

The other thing is that in 1918 the flu was spread in a large portion by troop movements. Young men, many of whom had literally never been off the farm, were inducted into the army, gathered together in large numbers in crowded, unsanitary camps. Where many disease spread rampantly, not just flu. The U.S. government was told by public health people to stop shipping soldiers all over, but did they listen? Of course not. Today we have none of those situations I've just named.

Okay, so it certainly is true that airplanes regularly deliver people all over the world, and yes, a virulent, highly contagious form of any illness can get spread quickly.

Actually, what we really have to worry about is that Chinese officials would be very slow to admit they have a serious outbreak of flu going on in their rural areas. They lied and covered up about SARS when that was happening, and there's no good reason to think they won't do the same thing again.

It's sort of like the way many countries say that they are absolutely immune to AIDS because their culture frowns upon homosexuality, so of course there are no gay men, and they don't have drug abuse problem. Well, surprise, surprise. There are gay men everywhere, and in third world countries you only need an impoverished, ignorant, or unscrupulous medical system that re-uses needles without sterilization and voila! An AIDS epidemic.

[Mike03]

81. Good Info Here

Thanks for posting this. Of particular interest are those details about the 1918 epidemic. Very interesting.

Hopefully the circumstances don't exist for that sort of pandemic nowadays to spread so rapidly. Perhaps if such a flu were to spread nowadays, it would spread slowly and be easier to stop.

The better sanitation and hygiene we have nowadays is one reason I question that "Two Week" rule thrown out by Bill Wattenberg a few weeks ago on KGO radio interview. I doubt two weeks indoors would really be enough time for flu to spread through any given community.

I'm also worried that we may not know if and when this virus mutates for the very reason you outlined: countries wanting to cover up and not admit that cases have been confirmed.

[nadinbrzezinski]

82. My hope is.. it goes the way SARS did

with the increased medical monitoring and when it is all said and done we will be talking worst case of 1000 dead and 10,000 infected world wide... this means isolating clusters very fast and efficiently...

Alas I am not counting on this... but that is my hope... SARS did not become a major problem because the providers were good and were paying attention

[SheilaT]

118. The basic reason flu continues to be

an ongoing problem -- and by this I mean normal seasonal flu -- is that the Chinese continue to raise pigs and ducks in close proximity to each other. The one eats the other's feces, they both harbor flu viruses which rarely, if every, harm them, and pass the virus back and forth, allowing it to mutate constantly. And that mutating viruses passes into humans and mutates a little more.

What's happening right now is that wild and domestic bird population, including ducks, geese, and chickens, have acquired a very nasty flu strain which actually sickens and kills them. What I think should be of huge concern is that the world poultry population be essentially killed off. Okay, I realize that from our point of view human lives are infinitely more valuable than ducks or chickens, but something quite serious is going on out there.

I have often wondered if the dinosaurs weren't ultimately done in by some disease that wiped them out, or killed off enough that the meteor some 65 million years ago was just the coup de grace.

[sinkingfeeling]

16. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and take actions accordingly.

However, although serious, I'm not about to get worked up about it. Currently (for last 8 years) the only cases in humans involved direct contact with infected birds. I'm much more concerned by what I watched on TV the other night. Think it was PBS, called Rx for Survival. It focused on MDR strains of things like TB, which we once conquered with antibiotics 50 years ago. Said NO drug companies were investing money in finding new antibiotics because they can make millions more with drugs to be used every day (all the stuff promoted so heavily on TV).

Within a few years, it is possible that we will have no means of resisting the bacteria that covers the world.

By the way, I hate chickens, living or dead, and won't even eat them.

[NNN0LHI]

17. Have you ever lived through a pandemic before?

I have lived through two of them. No one got hysterical about those.

Don

[AZBlue]

25. Mike, I'm right there with you on this one!

Well-writeen post. Thank you!

[HereSince1628]

27. Flu season usually lasts from November to March.

Once the flu is in a community it will cycle through the population until herd immunity reduces the probability of transmission to susceptibles below levels that sustain its presence. Based on computer models I've seen based what's known from other flus that COULD take months.

That also matches my personal experience. I monitored influenza for Wisconsin back in the mid 90's. Based on that experience I think it is reasonable to expect some communities or regions to experience rapid flushes to infectious peaks and then a crash. But many communities will experience the epidemic as a widespread occurrence that steadily colonizes the susceptible population and takes a long time to run its course. Other communities may experience the epidemic as two or move "waves" that may be months apart.

If the pandemic comes I'm going to live my life without going into the bunker. And I am going to expect to be here afterwards, because I am not in a high risk group, I know how to employ good hygiene to minimize my risk, and I expect 98%+ who get sick to survive it, because that's the pattern of even the worst known pandemics.

[MercutioATC]

35. Just a point about "high-risk groups"...

The highest mortality rates during the 1918 flu were young adults with healthy immune systems. The strength of their own immune systems wound up leading to secondary conditions like pneumonia and many of them died.

These epidemics don't all follow the "very old and very young" model.

[caledesi]

28. Bang! nt

[mainer]

31. You'll never convince a lot of people here. I gave up a long time ago.

There's no use warning people who refuse to listen.

Here's the DU editorial on this. One of our members/scientists is certainly taking it seriously.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/crisis/05/035_ep.html

[dbeach]

34. rummy is gonna make some cash from Tamiflu

Wonder about some of the big players investments??

‘Rummy Flu’

"Tamiflu was developed and patented in 1996 by a California biotech firm, Gilead Sciences Inc. Gilead is a NASDAQ (GILD) listed stock company which prefers to maintain a low profile in the current rush to Tamiflu. That might be because of who is tied to Gilead. In 1997, before he became US Secretary of Defense, Donald H. Rumsfeld was named Chairman of the Board of Gilead Sciences, where he remained until early 2001 when he became Defense Secretary. Rumsfeld had been on the board of Gilead since 1988 according to a January 3 1997 company press release.

An as-yet-unconfirmed report is that Rumsfeld while Secretary of Defense also purchased an additional stock in his former company, Gilead Sciences Inc., worth $18 million, making him one of its largest if not the largest stock owners today.

The Secretary of Defense, the man who allegedly supported the use of contrived intelligence to justify the war on Iraq, is now poised to reap huge gains for a flu panic his Administration has done everything it can to promote. It would be useful to know whether the Pentagon’s successor to Douglas Feith’s Office of Special Plans developed the strategy of biowarfare behind the current Avian Flu panic. Perhaps some enterprising Congressional committee might look into the entire subject of plausible conflicts of interest regarding Secretary Rumsfeld.

Rumsfeld stands to make a fortune on royalties as a panicked world population scrambles to buy a drug worthless in curing effects of alleged Avian Flu. The model suggests the parallel to the brazen corruption of Halliburton Corporation whose former CEO is Vice President Dick Cheney. Cheney’s company has so far gotten billions worth of US construction contracts in Iraq and elsewhere. Coincidence that Cheney’s closest political friend is Defense Secretary and Avian Flu beneficiary Don Rumsfeld? It is another example of what someone has called the principle of modern US corrupt special interest politics: ‘Concentrate the benefits; diffuse the costs’ President Bush has ordered the US Government to buy $2 billion worth of Gilead Science’s Tamilflu."

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=%20EN20051030&articleId=1169

[pitohui]

43. yes he is & it's a disgrace that DUers want to line his pockets

problem is anyone can claim they're anyone and post on a public bulletin board

the avian flu believers want to enrich these evil men who have already stolen so much from the american people, they need to look into their own conscience before continuing to spread this meme

i've heard theories that some ppl are paid to post on public boards & tho i figure it's just conspiracy theory, honestly sometimes i have to wonder if it's true

[nadinbrzezinski]

49. Given that the WHO is not too convinced that Tami flu

works as advertized, though they are still recomending the course for it it reduces how infectioous a patient is... it is better than nothing. Also Roche Labs has the pattent... I think you are wearing your tin foil hat a tad too tight on this one... even if Gilead is now geting a licence, that is Rummy seeing an oportunity... which incidentally is blood money and may not work very well. The WHO is LEANING hard on Roche to release all pattents.

What part of first warnings were issued in 1995 are you having a problem comprehending?

What is worrisone is taht some DU'er are joining the flat earthers and refusing to understand the science of this... the right deies global warming and the left denies bird flu.. a flat earther is a flat earther is a flat earther either way.

[gkhouston]

54. well, I personally am not going to waste $$ on Tamiflu

as I'm not convinced it's sufficiently better than nothing. As things stand, the question's moot, as I don't expect any to be available. I wish they'd ramp up production of Relenza; that seems to offer a little more hope.

[nadinbrzezinski]

55. If I get soemthing like Bird Flu

I will take whatever it is recomended to LOWER my infectivity to others...

[gkhouston]

61. hmm... if it actually reduced transmissibility that would be

a worthwhile thing, although that there's still the problem of nowhere near enough Tamiflu. Unless the pandemic holds off for a couple of years, I don't see how the world could possibly stockpile enough. It's not a drug that's quickly produced, although I saw an article the other day about co-administering another drug with the Tamiflu that would slow the rate of excretion of Tamiflu from the body, thus lowering the dosage required... apparently a technique used to stretch antibiotics during WWII.

[nadinbrzezinski]

72. Yeah and somehow the French have managed to cover

20% of their population, the British 25% (The goal from WHO) and the Canuccks over 20%

The US, we have enough for about 1% of our population placing us with so many developing world countries it is not even funny.

[NNN0LHI]

56. Every nation has the right to void patent laws and grant licenses...

...to generic manufacturers of essential medicines in order to meet public-health emergencies. Don't have to lean on anyone.

If this is such an emergency why hasn't our government done so?

Any ideas?

Don

[nadinbrzezinski]

58. Our government void pattents,

that is a good one... a corporate government will not do that because of the precedent it would set. Remember when India and the African nations did such for AIDs, what was the reaction from DC (yes folks that was Clinton)

And yes WHO is leanign you may void all the pattents, but if you have no idea of how it is made, it is academic

[NNN0LHI]

65. All I can conclude is that this must not be such a big deal then

Because I know our politicians all have families and would not want none of them to die from bird flu. That fact is like getting the all clear signal to me. When the politicians begin taking the "deadly" bird flu seriously I will.

And if others want to go out and waste their money making some fat cat who owns stock in a drug company fatter more power to them. Ain't no skin off my nose.

Don

[gkhouston]

67. how many of the politicians are scientists? Or historians,

who could maybe grasp that something like 1918 or the Black Death could happen again? The politicians are largely wrapped up in the CIA leak case and the Supreme Court funsies and 2006 and 2008. Epidemiologists they ain't.

[NNN0LHI]

71. Some of those politicians are doctors too. They know its all BS n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

77. No, not all of them are doctors

and frist does not count... and it is NOT BS

what part of warnings were first issued in 1995 are people having a hell of a time comprehending?

[gkhouston]

79. Told you that, have they? Sure seem to be a lot of reputable

scientists around the world who don't seem to agree.

[nadinbrzezinski]

76. Most of our politicos are fully ignorant of the science

you see they have been given reports on WMDs that were faily scary, but they have not been briefed on this... here is where we come in... and educate them

[NNN0LHI]

101. "no idea of how it is made"?

Heck why don't we just ask India or Argentina how it is made? They are making their own without too much problem. Wonder why they can do it but America can't?

Don

[nadinbrzezinski]

102. They are doing wiht best guesses

the process has NOT been released by Roche

[NNN0LHI]

103. Best guesses or reverse engineering? n/t

[gkhouston]

104. LOL, that's what reverse engineering often *is* n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

105. And if you are not in a time crunch

which they are... it works... but they are on a time crunch, hence why I hope the WHO leaning on Roche works... poor Gillead, their stock will crash and burn.

[Mike03]

83. Just to Clarify

I have no intention in the world of taking Tamiflu or even getting a regular flu shot, let alone roll the dice on some "vacine." My point is to avoid all that completely by intelligent planning ahead. I don't even like to have my pets vaccinated unless it is mandatory.

[nadinbrzezinski]

84. Gee I get my flu shot every year

and my tetanus booster every ten years....

by the way my flu shot will not protect me against this beauty, and if I did come down with this... sure I will take the tami flu, in the off chance it will make me less infectious, so I don't spread the joy.

The American People are having a problem with science, a very serious problem

Oh and do vaccines have side effects? Absolutely, are some of them lethal? Yep, but so do Nyquil.

[gkhouston]

85. oh, Nyquil is NASTY shit. I never take that stuff. n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

86. Yes it is nasty

but people believe OTCs are well safe becuse they are OTCs.

[gkhouston]

87. yeah, and herbs are safe

because they're "natural". :eyes:

[nadinbrzezinski]

90. If you know how to use them they can be good

I cringe when I see chamomille tea just taken because it is a herbal tea... its active components are great if you have stomach cramps. I drink it when I have a flu, or any other crampy problem... but as a medicine (and my doctor smiled when I told her that... she did not realize it until I brought her the info)

[gkhouston]

99. oh, I agree

fenugreek was wonderful when I was nursing. It's just that some people seem to think it's impossible for something to be bad for you simply because it's herbal. Duh... lots of poisons are "natural", too.

[Mike03]

93. Come to think of it

I did get a tetanus booster a few years back when I was volunteering at an animal shelter.

The reason I'm not enthusiastic about flu shots is because I've heard there is mercury in them.

[nadinbrzezinski]

97. Do some research from actaul science sites

and find out

As is if you are NOT in a high risk group or health care, you don't need it

[gkhouston]

100. well, you could always get the live attenuated vaccine that's

sprayed into the nostrils. I don't believe that has thimerosal in it.

[Avalux]

51. We cannot stop the evolution of H5N1

It will make the necessary changes for human to human transmission some time in the near future. Since it was identified in 1998, it has gradually changed and is close; it will not be innocuous because of the type of cells it infects (deep lung tissue).

I agree with you and I wish everyone would take the threat seriously, but not be hysterical about it. Read and get educated about the virus and be prepared in case you must stay at home for a length of time.

Experts in this field are not needlessly trying to scare people. We've known about this virus and the potential for pandemic for years; it's just too bad no one really seemed to care until now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

53. Yes we have known about it for years

but educating people is far more painful than surgery without anesthesia... I wish people did the readyng and realized there is solid science behind this, but it seems they rather hide head in sand

[Strawman]

60. nothing wrong with taking action, the govt should

but * holding a press conference on it is nothing more than a blatant attempt to change the news by scaring the shit out of everyone.

[sendero]

64. I think you've stated your position well.

.... and I don't find much to disagree with - I've been following this issue myself.

Is it (a pandemic) a 1% chance, a 5% chance a 50% chance - nobody really knows.

But it seems like enough of a threat that taking some simple measures isn't crazy, it's prudent.

Just because it's become a political football doesn't make the whole thing moot. There are plenty of scientists who I have no reason to distrust who are really worried about this. So am I. But I'm damn sure not going to depend on a moron like the DictatorTot to protect me, that's for sure :)

[Mike03]

88. I'm with you on that

If folks didn't learn that lesson from Katrina about the complete inability of this government to protect us from anything, I don't know what could possibly instruct them at this point. If "troops" are Bush's solution to the notion of a pandemic, we can be sure he will only exacerbate the problem.

[RedEarth]

108. Mike, my neighbor is a infectious disease doc and my nephew is director

of a virology lab(his research deals other viruses, not the avian flu, but he is quite familiar with research being conducted on H5N1) and both think this virus has the potential of being the real deal. Needless to say, like everyone, neither of them know for certain if H5N1 will mutant to the point of human to human transmission, but it does have the potential.

Basically, they both echo the same information you can read from reliable publications. One of the concerns they express is if the virus hits the US it has the potential to overwhelm the medical infrastructure. Right now, folks in the medical community are discussing ways on how to handle such a scenario.

Until vaccine production can be accelerated and until tamiflu is more widely available, there's not much an individual can do. As you suggested, stocking up on food and water, perhaps that's a good idea.

[nadinbrzezinski]

110. We have but my hubby is a police officer

He should be on the priority list of people to get tami flu, alas I am not.

I have two months of food in the pantry, got them also for quakes... now I HOPE water delivery systems do not go off kilter too much, for I have no space to stock up on much water, at most a week.

But, but I am panicking... part of my better be able to take care of myself, for the gov'ment will not, and the Bush plan has so many holes it is not even funny.

You may want to go to the WHO site, (I keep pushing it) and DL the PDF with their strategic plan... that one should be in ciruclation... and part of the problem is... worst case, yes the medical system will collapse and doctors will have to triage who gets the ventilators and who does not.

[MsTryska]

106. hmm. i think i jsut came down with the bird flu.

or soemthing. i just sneezed a couple fo times and now i feel like congested crap.

[nadinbrzezinski]

107. no this is not a joke

have you been to Thailand, China (hunan Province) Vietnam or a couple others in the last oh I don't know 72 hours?

If you have... report to your ER and mention this, if you have not... this is not a funny joke

;-)

[MsTryska]

109. I've ate thai for lunch and plan on getting some

hot and sour soup for dinner?

ok ok - i should stop joking. I realize it's a serious subject.

but i've been going on about the Bird Flu pandemic and it's possibility of hitting Atlanta since gosh - early September - and i'm the first one to fall to the sniffles this season.

that sucks.

[nadinbrzezinski]

111. Well I asked the obvious qusetions

if yuo were patient zero, one way to stop it is, nothing personal, get you out of circulation... and give you the medical care

If you have the sniffles, you know the damn routine by now

Thai chicken, hmmm that sounds good.

[MsTryska]

112. sure...isolate me and give me the "medical care" i need.....

i don't even wanna know what that's code for with this administration. *lol*


thai chicken soup would also be good, but i've had enough coconut and fish paste for one day. i'll go with the hot and sour and clean those nasal passages out.


the thing i'm wondering tho is if i can take pseudophed with claritin (which i'm on for allergies) or if my nose will dry up and wither off if i do?

[nadinbrzezinski]

113. Ok disclaimer I am not an MD

but if you are taking claritin, that should do it...

Now I am talking of STANDARD care in an epidemic, which includes isolation.

As to bush, care me to tell you how many holes his so called plan has?

Oh and chicken soup.. they have proven it works...

[Pepper32]

114. ...

:evilgrin: