'05 elections could give us a hint re: '06

[WI_DEM]

Next week doesn't sound like a very important election day, but it could give us hints of how the electorate may vote in the major midterm elections of 2006.

Two key governorships (NJ and VA) are up. The Democrats hold both, The GOP will claim victory if they take one of them. However, if Democrats keep both and win by bigger than expected numbers it could be interpeted as a repudiation of the Bush administration. So far in NJ, Corzine is leading Forrester by 7-9 points, however if he wins by 10-15 that would be a major victory. In VA. Kaine is leading Kilgore in latest polls by 2-3 points, a turnaround from earlier this summer when Kilgore had a solid lead.

Both NJ and VA are also holding Assembly and State Senate races--if Dems make inroads in those races as well, it would be enough to make the GOP shudder.

The other very big race is the California initatives supported by Arnold, polls show they are losing by wide margins. It also indicates that if Dems put up a solid challenger to Arnold that the Governors office in Sacramento can turn blue again in '06.

The only downer race for the Dems is going to be the NYC Mayor's race where Bloomberg has a huge lead. Fererr has run a terrible campaign and once again the nations most Democratic city will have a GOP mayor.

It will also be interesting to see if the problems of the Bush Administration will hold down turnout on the GOP side and rejuvenate Democratic turnout?

Any other big races out there worth watching next Tuesday?