Avian flu....here's what bugs me about the debate.

[Hamlette]

I keep reading, even on DUs home page, that 50 to 100 million died as a result of the 1918-1919 flu.

Scary.

But here are some reasons I can't get all that worked up about it:

The US was at war in 1918, hundreds of thousands of troops were housed in overcrowded conditions with inadequate hygene and support services. We just didn't have the facilities to house the troops while they trained. The war effort also caused overcrowding in cities where people went to help supply the war effort. These cities did not have adequate housing and it was not unusual for civilian strangers to sleep two to a bed in 8 hour shifts. (Boy Scouts went door to door asking home owners if they could house some of these people. It was a big problem.) Also, if you think the patriot act is bad, it was against the law to say anything bad about the war OR the government. Debs got 10 years in jail for opposing the US entry into the war. It was seen as hurting the war effort to talk about the flu so no precautions were taken early enough to have done much good.

While it is oft quoted that 50 to 100 million died (some put the world wide number much lower than that) the US suffered 675,000 "excess" (over and above the number usually killed by the flu each year) deaths as a result of the 1918-1919 flu. Some even put that number lower, closer to 500,000. At current population numbers 675K translates to 1.7 million deaths. I don't mean to discount the horrible loss of life but I would hate to see fear of the flu used as an excuse to erode our liberties without knowing all the facts. 1.5 million deaths in the US is .5% of the population. Bad, but that number is way different than saying "100 million died".

It's difficult to imagine that the current flu strain is "worse" than the 1918 strain when most deaths were to mid-aged adults (aged 20 to 40, not children and old people)because that age group has a more robust immune system and most deaths were due to the individual's immune system "doing too good of a job." Many, if not most deaths were as a result of pneumonia. Remember, this is before antibiotics. The death toll would have been smaller if antibiotics had been available.

I just read John Barry's book: The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History. Yeah, its scary but even after reading the article on the home page yesterday, I can't get that worked up about it.

(or, and a side factoid, all flus come from birds.)

[SaveElmer]

1. You are substantially correct...

And this is what is missing from the coverage of the Bird Flu today. People talk about the rapid worldwide travel. Well in the midst of the 1918 flu epidemic, we were shipping sick soldiers back and forth between here and Europe everyday. Hundreds of sick soldiers were arriving daily.

The flu itself was born in the fetid and overcrowded trenches of WWI, which many think is why it became so lethal to young men. There is nowhere today where that kind of condition, on that kind of scale exists...even in Asia.

The H5N1 strain has been known about for about 8 years, has spread among birds in Asia that entire time, in an area with nearly half the worlds population, and still only 166 known cases.

I'm not saying that it won't mutate into a H-H form, but the coverage has been very alarmist on this topic. There are many respected virologists, immunalogosta and others who do not believe this strain has the capability to mutate in this way. They warn, that we should be on the lookout for a strain that we don't know about yet. WHich is why many of these actions being taken are warranted. But I would like to see more evenhanded coverage!!!

[Yoda Yada]

2. You're Right

1) The 1918 epidemic was BEFORE antibiotics. Most of the deaths were from secondary infections like pneumonia...which WOULD BE TREATABLE today with antibiotics.

2) Currently, the virus CANNOT be transmitted from human to human. However, if this mutation were to occur, the impact of the virus would diminish (because a virus loses some strength when it mutates.)

These are two VERY IMPORTANT facts that we NEED TO REMEMBER and bring into the discussion, if we are to avoid a needless panic.

[oneold1-4u]

3. Aaaaah I remember 1918

through family history of only the recently past century! My grandparents, parents, aunts, uncles, cousins, and thousands of friends, were here and didn't die! Taking care of one another, when ill, was and is very important. They really only had aspirin and home remedies in 1918! Many of those same remedies are still available and make vaccines and even many anti-biotics take a back seat! Today this government would say that caring for even your own child would be of no use, and that you should run from (not just avoid) any ill person! In other words a volunteering of quarantine LAWS!
This one more trap is being set and you are the bait if if you continue in this hoax of fear!