Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has become a
tropical depression. The center is difficult to locate and could be
anywhere within 60 N mi from the given position. Consequently...the
initial motion is highly uncertain but estimated at 315/03.
The depression appears to be trapped by a high pressure system to
the north and only a slow northwest motion toward the coast of
Nicaragua is anticipated. Dynamical models suggest that the cyclone
will never get out that area before dissipation inland over Central
America. This is very realistic solution. However...the slow motion
over warm waters and low shear will likely result in strengthening
as indicated in the official forecast...and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of
Nicaragua. The official forecast is not as aggressive as the GFDL
which makes the depression a 94-knot hurricane before landfall.
Tropical storm conditions will likely spread over San Andres and
Providencia islands on Thursday. We were not successful in
contacting the Colombian Weather Service to coordinate the
warnings.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/at200526.disc.html