Here's my worry about this whole mess....

[vi5]

Fitzgerald could bring indictments to many bush administration officials and what I'm afraid would happen is:

30% of the population who are highly informed politically charged liberals/democrats will cheer and be able to discuss every aspect of thsi case. We will all take it as justification and vindication of our feelings from the past 6+ years.

30% of the population who are politically charged rabid conservatives/republicans will lap up every single fabricated talking point and will decry this as the liberals/democrats playing sour grapes again. No amount of evidence or argument presented will convince any of the people in this group that Bush or anyone in his administration did anything wrong or that they are anything less than great, true, patriotic americans trying to keep us all safe.

The 40% of people in the middle who may lean one way or another but ultimately don't have the time or the desire to follow the nuances of such a specific, fairly complicated case will at first not know what to make of any of it. But all they will hear are the snapshot soundbites of talking heads since inevitably the media will present "both sides". These people will then fall back on their age old excuse that "it seems like both sides are just playing politics here" and as a result shut it out because there is nothing particularly glamorous about the case. They will go back to their day to day lives and wonder why the media and politicans are spending so much time talking about this case when they should be focusing on "my high taxes.....high gas prices.....illegal immigrants...." or any other number of "if it's not in front of my face then I don't care about it" issues. These people, unfortunately the same ones who swing elections won't even have this in the list of the top 100 most important things they care about or think about come election day 2006 or 2008 and instead will be falling for whatever spin the republicans are dishing out through the media around that time.

We can all sit here all day and yap about this endlessly but I would bet any amount of money that this is going to be the end result of all of this. I hope I'm wrong and this isn't a "sky is falling" post because if there are indictments and convictions then justice will be served and that is the most important thing. But if people are expecting a political tide change from this I'm afraid we'll be very dissapointed.

[Cooley Hurd]

1. Fitzgerald is blind to polls, as is Lady Justice:

...hence, the blindfold.

[vi5]

6. Yes, and that's ultimately my point...

Justice will be served. But this will likely have no impact on polls in any one direction.

[crispini]

2. That is why you need to be having conversations

with your apolitical friends and coworkers in the middle, right now.

We on DU need to be dissiminators of ideas, radiating concepts into the mainstream. Like a pyramid scheme of gossip, we at the grassroots need to be talking to people every day and getting our ideas out there.

Frame it for them before the media gets to them.

[vi5]

7. I do that, but I'm under no delusion that it helps....

Their first reaction will be "There he goes again....". They will listen politely and think for a bit as to maybe there is something to it.

But then they will hear the claptrap on the media and go "Oh, Kevin didn't mention that part of the story....." and then fall back into their usual mode and habits and move on to more important stuff like pro-football or Desparate Housewives or whatever.

[acmejack]

17. I suggest you read this piece.

Surrendering to gloom & defeatism helps no one! Even when it seems fruitless, we must maintain our spirits. The link will take you to an article by one of my favorite people, it is titled "Defeating Defeatism". Could be appropriate...

http://www.lonestaricon.com/News/2005/41-42/41news01.htm

[HereSince1628]

3. If there are indictments and a trial in DC

it is the sentiments of the jury that will matter, not withstanding any polling result.

[NNN0LHI]

4. Nothing nuanced about criminal charges. Even idiots understand that

They won't need to read the small print to get it.

Don

[newscott]

5. That's why we are forced to relive this nightmare

just about once every ten years.

[atommom]

8. That's my worry, too .... that many people just won't take an interest

and won't change their voting behavior. I still have my hopes, though....

[riderinthestorm]

9. I'm hoping the Dems can phrase this correctly.

If it is broken up into easily understood sound bites, the public WILL fall our way on this (the rabid Dem 30 percenters).

Look at Watergate. It was about a "break in" (everyone understands this to be a crime), and a cover up by the President of the crime. What resulted from this framing? Resignation and eternal disgrace....

Or Clinton. The Repubs tried to frame it as "perjury" and "rule of law" but everyone knew it was all about lying about a blow job. Everyone could understand that. Yes it resulted in impeachment, but it also brought Clinton the highest approval ratings and (in the long run) affection and even a sort of aw-shucks-everyday-guy-approachability.

We need to keep stressing this is about TREASON and falsely leading and killing our children to war. Keep it simple and extremely blunt - the 40 percenters will get it if we (Dems) can do this with some degree of discipline and focus.

[phiddle]

10. QUESTIONS (rather than talking points) are helpful, such as:

1. Why has every Republican administration since 1968 been criminal? (Nixon/Watergate, Reagan Iran/Contra, Bush/S&L scandal, Bush/Plamegate)
2. Why does the middle class do so much better under Democrats?
3. Why does the rest of the world cooperate more with democratic administrations, and is suspicious of republicans?
4. Why does government work so much worse with Republicans?
(etc.)
Questions force people to engage on some level, and linger in their minds long after your water cooler conversation is over.
Good luck!

[leveymg]

11. It'll betya it has the same impact as Watergate. It will deeply impact

the next two election cycles, because of the stinking, unwashable stain on the image of the GOP. After that, who knows?

No, the die-hard committed on both sides aren't going to change camps, but most of those in the middle will not be able to hold their nose and vote Republican again for a good, long while.

It's up to the Democrats to make this work over the long-term by doing a competent, honest job of addressing the huge, deep problems the Right-wing have created or exacerbated in recent years. A return to power isn't going to easy, but it's a piece of cake compared to having to govern over the chaos that's been handed us.

[sendero]

12. I agree..

.... but allow me to apply my 'positive' spin.

If this scandal fell off the face of the earth tomorrow, it would do so having already done some good.

The WH is too busy trying to cover their asses to do what they would normally be doing, which is of course wrecking the country. So we are already at a net plus.

Yes, once the indictments come (ok, I'm going to indulge myself in a bit of optimism here), the TV will go beserk with 1) smearing Fitz, 2) smearing Wilson 3) smearing Plame. Sure, it's already happening but it will get much worse.

The crucial variable is "who is buying this crap"? See, I agree with you about the last 30%, they are essentially morons and nothing will change their minds. But the middle 40%? I think they are used to the PR tactics of a PR administration by now. I think a lot more of them than you think will see the smears for what they are. It's not like it takes a rocket scientist to see the pattern here.

Particularly when the whole case is about a smear campaign to begin with!

[jbnow]

13. This one won't be too complex...

when my indifferent friends/acquaintances do say "oh it's politics" what seems to swing them is one thing. They outed Plame and her agency and the agency was a secret network investigating WMDs. So even if she wasn't overseas since she had kids everyone she worked with, all those still working were at risk.

They are always surprised. "WMDs? Really? But that's important..."

Yes, it is.

[carolinalady]

14. I have been thinking the same thing. If they let this die with

indictments, the 40% may stay blissfully uninformed. I hope they continue to investigate who was behind the fabricated stories that got us into this mess. Where is the UN in all of this? They should be investigating our government as we so often do to others.

[Lerkfish]

15. The Watergate hearings were effective...

and the country was probably split close to the same way you suggest back then as well.


I want us to get past whether something will work or not, the point is, crimes were committed, and no matter if the powerful try to think they're above the law, we should not accept their hubris as reason to allow them to get away with it.

are they corrupt? yes, clearly. Do they control things? yes, clearly. Will they get away with it? not if we don't let them.

[carolinalady]

16. The Watergate hearings also occured when there was limited

media. These days people are not confined to 13 television channels.