Wilma - Holy Shit!

[shawmut]

The pressure has dropped 70mb since this afternoon. That is unheard of.


Winds up to 150mph.

[Brundle_Fly]

1. it aint over yet.

sigh.

[Straight Shooter]

2. Oh, Lord, here we go again.

I'm not in its path, but this kind of news really disturbs me x(

[Maraya1969]

10. I am. And one of the news anchors just said not to bring your pets

to a shelter. What the fuck! I thought they learned that lesson with Katrina.

[Straight Shooter]

49. I hope you are able to find your way out of there with your pets.

They learn no lessons. They're "above" all that. :sarcasm:

Best of luck to you and your companions. I could not bring myself to leave my dog. The very thought of it makes me want to cry.

[Maraya1969]

50. Yea well fuck them and their stupid rules. I just got a reservation

in Tallahassee. The animals are going in. I'm sick with worry here and I'm not going to let some stupid rule stop me. Of course I realize I'm not going to a shelter but fuck them all anyway!

[Straight Shooter]

51. Stupid rules are meant to be broken.

No, wait. Stupid rules are meant to be shattered and thrown into a bottomless pit.

Your animals are very lucky. No wonder they chose you as their companion :)

[Maraya1969]

64. Hey thanks. That just made me smile.

:hug:

And for all my friends here at DU. :grouphug:

[karlrschneider]

57. My partner's mom lives in Ft Myers right on the Orange river,

Idylwild farm road, we're going to order (!? :D) her to board up the house and go to their deer camp in Georgia...

[Maraya1969]

63. I'm close to there. I'm in Fort Myers anyway. Good that you are

making her get out. "right on the river" does not sound very good. Neither does "gulf coast of florida" either. Or "Florida" for that matter.

[Lisa]

71. but -- Jeb Bush himself said that people would be allowed to bring pets!

He was on CNN this morning, wagging his finger and saying that since there would be pet-friendly shelters, "staying behind because of the dog" was "no excuse".

Is that news station contradicting The Word of Bush (tm)?

[Journeyman]

3. Is its movement slowing, though? . . .

Seems I saw a graphic earlier that showed it would make landfall in Florida sometime Saturday. Now it looks like Sunday. A lot can happen to a hurricane in that many days. Look how much power Rita lost before it made landfall. . .

[Media_Lies_Daily]

13. And Charley strengthened considerably before it made landfall....

...as did Andrew.

[RagingInMiami]

40. As did Katrina

[KaryninMiami]

4. I'm beginning to think this might be my last summer in Miami...

Enough is enough. This is really getting old (and extremely tiresome not to mention stressful). Palm trees are nice but is it all worth it to go through this for 5 months of the year? I wonder...

[RagingInMiami]

28. Karyn

These things happen in waves. Historically speaking. We're going through a very rough period right now, but it's not permanent.

After this wave dies down (and who knows when that will be), we can go two or three decades without a major hurricane.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. That's right

I grew up in Miami. Prior to Andrew there wasn't a major direct hit for decades. In fact, I got almost bored of the annual warnings. There was one hurricane named David, in '79 if I remember correctly, that had the entire community scrambling and boarding up. It was approaching on a Sunday and even overshadowing a Dolphin game at Buffalo. We were trying to watch the game while boarding up. That night, ferocious David turned to the north and basically stayed at sea. We took more damage from thunderstorms off the Everglades than from David. This is just a random sample of several active years in a row.

[RagingInMiami]

38. I remember David

I was 11 years old. That was the first time we ever boarded up for a hurricane. And it turned out to be a false alarm. Of course, 1980 proved to be a very turbulent year for Miami and it had nothing to do with hurricanes (riots, immigration, cocaine).

But if you look at history, you will see that hurricanes nail us every four decades or so.

There was Betsy in the 1960s, then there was the 1926 unnamed hurricane. That fucked things up pretty bad and Miami was hardly the city it is today. And that was followed by several other hurricanes throughout the late 1920s and early 1930s, including one that killed a lot of workers building the seven-mile bridge in the Keys during the early 1930s.

[KaryninMiami]

42. Yes "Raging' that's true but Global Warming is not helping...

As for waiting for the wave of storms to die down, I'm just running out of patience. Perhaps it's because I live on the water in a high rise and don't have shutters... The stress of the storms during the days before it hits or doesn't hit (when we go into 24 hour "all hurricane all the time" t.v coverage) and I guess I'm just feeling weary of it all...

Anyway, I'm not moving yet but just not sure I want to do another summer here. We'll see.

In the meantime, I guess I need to start thinking about buying some suppplies- there's nothing in my house....

[shanti]

56. that's what they USED to say

not no more...:-(

[SoCalDem]

33. I adore Miami, but the storms are getting worse.. We have palm trees in CA

and not much humidity..come to CA :) We are not silly wacky people.,.honest !

[RagingInMiami]

39. Hey, I love California too

But man, let's try to keep as many dems in Florida as possible. This is a huge battleground state.

[KingFlorez]

5. I'm concerned about this

Hurricanes have caused enough damage this year and we don't need anymore.

[FormerRepublican]

6. Just what we need...

...more Cat 5 hurricanes. No doubt FEMA will immediately hand out pre-storm non-competative contracts to Halliburton for the clean up.

I feel for the folks in the path of this storm. Jeez Louise, can't we get a break?

[maxrandb]

46. It's Flori-DUH

this admin will pull troops out of Iraq and deploy them to Florida if it would prop up a Bush.

I am not a betting man, but I'm willing to wager my salary that "Brownie" won't be east of the Mississippi River when this storm hits Florida.

You watch, massive C-5 will be flying sorties 24 hours a day into Fl within hours of landfall.

You've got to hand it to RepubliKKKans...they know how to take care of their own.

[JohnLocke]

67. I'm from Florida.

Screw you.

[MADem]

7. Oh shit

I have some elderly friends in S FL and that looks like it is going right over their place.

[LonelyLRLiberal]

18. Hope they plan to get out - don't forget pets, pics, papers

Have friends and relatives who were in various areas affected by Katrina and Rita. Take storm surge very seriously. Relatives on the Texas coast over 300 miles from center of Rita had no wind, but water was very high in canals and on the beach.

Everyone took off and went inland to stay with family/friends and ended up being okay.

If your elderly friends are fixed income, for god's sake, send them money to get out if the storm heads their way.

[MADem]

25. They are a bit inland, in a concrete apt bldg

But hell, those winds are nothing to sneeze at, and they are not in the best of health...

[LonelyLRLiberal]

32. I wish them safety

Another friend lives in Lake Charles and stayed at home to ride out Rita. She said they escaped injury or damage to their house, but it was just horrible being in a raging storm for hours and hours and hours and hours.

[MADem]

35. They are both rather frail, but tough in their own way

The building is very sturdy--and they are not on the ground floor.

It's times like this when it would be nice to be stinking rich, so that I could just "send the Learjet" to get them. Most days I do not really give a damn about money, but I guess there are times when having a shitload of it might be useful.

[LonelyLRLiberal]

52. Don't you just love old folks?

They no doubt have been through and seen a lot during their lives.

If they stay, they need to stock up on plenty of water and ready-to-eat food, because they will be without electricity for possibly a long time. They need to give contact information and designate someone as their info point.

In Florida, the heat can take a toll on the elderly after a hurricane, and what can you really do about it without electricity for air conditioning. If they are in a building that has windows that don't open, it will really be hot. (Remember the hospitals in NO where they actually broke windows to get some air circulating, and even then it was over 100 degrees.) Maybe they could ask some younger people in their building to bring them ice when it starts being delivered.

I know what you mean about the LearJet and wishing you had the money to make it simple for them. Alas, it seems that most of the people with money and means just consider these things as other people's problems.

[MADem]

53. They have been married FOREVER

He is from FL, she from TN, and they were 19 and 16 when they wed. They have been together sixty-plus years!!! She really NEEDS a/c, he is a bit tougher, being a FL lad. I hope there is a shelter with generators nearby, if it comes to them having to leave (they are the type that will not want to, I know them!!!).

One good thing, all they HAVE is ready to eat food--they have tons of soups, crackers, shelf meals, that sort of stuff, because they eat out every day for breakfast and dinner--the Early Bird, of course! The stove is only used for water for tea!

Time to make a phone call!

[sam sarrha]

8. what is the water temperature.??

[Feron]

15. Here's a graphic for ya...

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. oh my holy crap.... this keeps this way Apha will form

soon folks and get strong.... oh holy crap

[sam sarrha]

47. thank you where did you get that..?? water isnt hot enough, maybe scalar

[karlrschneider]

58. Came from here

()
leave off the parens

[lala_rawraw]

9. The wingnuts are praying for the good lord to take

Me away on a big ass sea tour. I swear, the lord must be on their side, every time there is bad news, a natural disaster happens. We must take their bible and check it for direct numbers to god.

[Maraya1969]

11. I've got kind of a stupid question that I don't want to start a thread

so I'll ask it here. Fema has all that ice stored up. Would there be a way to drop it at the front of the hurricane before it hits land? I know you can't change a whole lot of water but from what I hear the horrible hurricanes are being caused by only a 1% increase in water temp all around. There must be tons of it available.

I thought there was some thought about dropping something into the eye with a plane years ago.

[Baclava]

17. Cooling the water isn't possible because there is just too much of it

Hurricanes draw energy from hundreds of thousands of square miles of ocean. People have even wanted to bring in icebergs....same thing... they wouldn't make a dent in the temperature of the water over an area large enough to make a difference.

Don't forget unintended consequences...

Hurricanes, along with other storms and ocean currents, help balance the Earth's heat budget. Trying to change hurricanes could have consequences that no one intended.

The National Hurricane Center estimates that a hurricane can release heat energy at the rate of 50 to 200 trillion watts. This is equivalent to a 10 megaton nuclear bomb explosion every 20 minutes.
How you gonna stop that?

[Jose Diablo]

41. Too bad all that energy cannot be harvested to do useful work

instead of blowing air around.

Hmmm, Jose Diablo's Deluxe Energy Harvester, sort of has a ring to it, don't it?

[WilliamPitt]

12. Looks like this one may be headed Boston way

We haven't had one since Bob. With all the flooding in MA and NH, this could get ugly.

[WindRavenX]

14. dont tell me this

x(

[MADem]

26. I am in MA and we have had over a foot of rain

ENOUGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Breeze54]

77. Not me!! We didn't get over a foot of rain here! lol

We only got 11.9 inches of rain!!
A lot of streets are still flooded around me
and the Charles River is spilling out onto route 109.
They have barriers up, blocking the road.
OH! What fun!!
But we got over 8 inches last Friday/Saturday overnight
That is a lot of rain in one night though!

The dam in Taunton is the big problem up here
and all the other decrepid bridges that need
to be shured up and rebuilt!

Guess I'm going grocery shopping tonight!
Stock up! Rent some movies!
Then?
Stay home and watch movies till Wednesday!!

LOL!! :party:

[lovuian]

16. I bet people in Tampa are all ready leaving!!! the only way

is North and east!!! Highway 10 goes through New Orleans and thats a mess!!!

[LonelyLRLiberal]

19. Tampa would be a bitch and a half to leave in a hurry

Better to leave early and pretend its a vacation.

[flvegan]

45. And with all the interstate construction going on in the Tampa area

By the time they call for it, I fear we'll see another NOLA-esque traffic jam...

I'm getting ready for it, but from what I'm seeing around here, I'm part of a very small group.

[karlrschneider]

59. What are they doing? Finally fixing Malfunction Junction?

:D

I live in TPA for 17 years but left in '96. No offense but I don't miss it one bit. ;-)

[flvegan]

65. Ha ha! Finally? No. Trying? Yes.

They'll never fix that nightmare, but yes, it's back under construction.

Plus, I4 has a ton of construction on the area outside of MfJ...alllll the way past the Ybor City area. Total disaster...

[karlrschneider]

66. I can't even imagine HOW they could 'fix' that abortion around 22nd st and

eastward. :D

Maybe someday I'll go back & see how much it's changed...I lived in Town 'n Country near Sheldon & Waters. My friends there tell me that's like midtown now...yikes

[file83]

20. I hear Florida is lovely this time of year. YIKES.

[shawmut]

21. latest satellite pic

[Baclava]

22. Wilma is now a Category 5

000
WTNT64 KNHC 190629
TCUAT4
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

[Firespirit]

29. OK if that isn't a sign for FL KEYS people to get out...

I can't think of what would be. I don't think it will pass near/over the islands as a 5 but it will still be bad. Really bad. Katrina made landfall on the MS Gulf Coast as a weakening 3/4, but it had a record storm surge that destroyed everything because it once was a 5. Please, Keys people -- don't risk this one.

BTW, that 1935 hurricane did the same thing that Wilma is doing, intensifying from a blob to a monster storm from hell in a matter of hours.

3 Cat. 5's in one season, all of them in the Top 10 for pressure records... no that's never happened before. When is a certain group of people going to get its collective head out of its a** and recognize what is happening before our very eyes???

[Baclava]

30. The "Oh Shit" meter in The Keys will be pegged come morning, for sure

Colder water/shear will take it's toll...but, the problem with leaving this early is you might be running right into it's path later if you don't go far enough north. Get outta town and go like hell now. This one is gonna be a mess.

[LittleClarkie]

23. Oh fuck a duck, now what

Mother Nature is after our nation's manhood again, damn it!

Whoe ever saw a hurricane season like this!?

Surely this must mean something wicked this way comes, global warming-wise.

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. 1933 to be exact

[foo_bar]

24. half of it in the last four hours

Tracking info for Hurricane Wilma
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 10/15/05 17.6N 78.8W 30 1004 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/16/05 17.0N 79.0W 30 1003 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 10/16/05 17.0N 79.3W 35 1003 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 10/16/05 17.1N 79.3W 35 1002 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 10/16/05 17.7N 79.6W 35 1001 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 10/17/05 17.6N 79.7W 35 1001 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 10/17/05 17.2N 79.7W 40 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/17/05 16.3N 80.0W 45 998 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/17/05 15.8N 79.9W 50 989 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/18/05 15.8N 80.2W 65 987 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/18/05 15.7N 80.0W 70 982 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/18/05 16.5N 80.6W 75 977 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/18/05 16.7N 81.5W 80 970 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/19/05 16.8N 82.1W 110 945 Category 2 Hurricane
05 GMT 10/19/05 16.9N 82.0W 150 901 Category 4 Hurricane

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200524.asp

[NobleCynic]

27. It looks like it will hit Cuba before Florida

To someone how knows more about meteorology than me: How hard will this hurricane hit Cuba? No big deal or will they be asking for international aid?

[BrightKnight]

37. Cuba is capable of evacuating it's citizens.

I am not a Castro fan but I have to give him credit for that.

It can't be good when Castro is more effective than the US government. I would like to see him shame the Neocons.

---------------

It does not appear that Cuba will receive a direct hit. The current path has it passing between Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula.

[Silverhair]

55. It isn't that Castro's gov't is better, Cuba just has better geography.

Cuba is very hilly. If you can get 30 feet above high tide level then you are safe from storm surge. If you are not in a valley, you won't get flooding. A sturdy cinder block building will survive the winds. Castro only has to move people a short distance. They can WALK to safety !!!! Nor does he have the megacities that we do.

In the US, the cities are on coastal plains, or on islands, or isolated by swamps and lakes, and some of them are megacities. You have to drive far inland to reach safety. It is a hugely different problem.

[malaise]

54. Cuba won't get a direct hit

Cozumel or Cancan may. The problem is that with Wilma it hardly matters. Western and North West Cuba will be drenched though - expect massive flooding. Eastern Cuba has already faced the same massive flooding as we did. Rain has not stopped falling in Jamaica since lasst Friday and then Wilma formed and sat and sat south west of Jamaica. The outer bands from the northern quadrant have severely damaged or North West Coastal towns roads, bridges. We have damage from one end of the island to the other. No where was spared.

If I was anywhere in Florida, I'd be on my way to Atlanta about now -no ifs or buts. Remember if Wilma comes in at Central Florida she will cross the state.

[Lisa]

60. I don't like the looks of that upper right quadrant ...

With the eye pressure so low, Wilma looks to be quite powerful, and that's a bad part of the hurricane to be in. As you say, the flooding and storm activity would be nasty ... the eyewall wouldn't have to hit it directly, to create a lot of damage.

[malaise]

62. Looks deadly

by the way that was supposed to be Cancun.

[lectrobyte]

43. Why does the Lord hate Jeb Bush so much? Wouldn't a well timed

lightning bolt on the golf course be so much more appropriate?

[LuCifer]

48. Tell me about it!

If it wants Jebbypoo, GO TO TALLAHASSEE, NOT OKEECHOBEE!!!!

Any and I mean ANY of you FEMA trolls come by my joint, well, just DON'T, ok?! Catch my drift?!

Lu

[soup]

44. Mandatory evacuations starting today in the keys.

Just heard on the Weather Channel. no link yet.

Good luck, people. Stay safe.

[Baclava]

61. Uh-oh.....big changes in path?

From Masters' blog:

Where will Wilma go? There is now a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. A major shift in the model guidance occurred with the just completed 12Z (8 am) runs. Three of the top models--the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models--now show that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pull Wilma sharply northwards and then northeast across Florida is progressing slower than expected, and will not dig as far south. If this forecast verifies, it would be very bad news for Mexico. Wilma may not pass east of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel as originally thought, and may instead make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel or Cancun Island on Thursday night or Friday morning, probably as a Category 4 hurricane.

However, this would be very good news for Florida. Any encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula would cause a serious disruption of the hurricane, and make it unlikely that Wilma could affect Florida as a major hurricane. A hit on southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would be most likely, and the arrival of the hurricane would be delayed until Sunday. It is quite possible that Wilma would not affect Florida as a hurricane at all; the GFDL model forecasts that Wilma will spend three days over Mexico and emerge off the coast as a tropical storm and pass south of Cuba. So, if I lived in Florida and was thinking about evacuating today, I would wait another day and see what the forecast tomorrow brings. Keep in mind, though, that the NOGAPS model, which is one of the top four models for tracking hurricanes, is still showing that Wilma will pass through the Yucatan Channel and a make landfall in southwest Florida as a major hurricane.

[malaise]

68. Get out of harms way

All models say Florida.

Edit - photo link

[The Stranger]

69. She looks pissed off and heading straight for the White House.

Go, Wilma, Go.

[malaise]

70. That would be unbelievable

irony. Wonder if Jeb will cede power to the Feds.

[Lisa]

72. even more ironic if she pole-vaulted over the Gulf ...

spared the coastal residents ... and unloaded all that water right on top of Dubya's Crawford estate.

Disobeying all those scientific "reality-based community" rules about what hurricanes are supposed to do (after all, Dubya doesn't pay attention to them, so why should she?)

Hey -- a climatologist can dream!

[Freedomfried]

73. How do they figure a hard right turn?

Looks to me like its heading right to the center of the Gulf.

[tjdee]

74. There's some kind of front preventing it from going to the Gulf.

That's what I heard....some kind of ....front. Kind of pushing down in a way, forcing it into the turn instead of letting it go northwest.

[Freedomfried]

75. Wellll...OK, we'll soon see if they're right.

[Breeze54]

76. This is NOT UNHEARD OF! It has happened BEFORE!

So much for the MSM SPIN MACHINE!!!!

There have been more intense hurricanes before this!

They were talking about the PRESSURE!

THE MB!!

Take a look at these stats!! See for yourself!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The following table is derived from
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-1:

The Most Intense Hurricanes in the United States 1851-2004
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml

THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE
UNITED STATES TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM 1851 TO 2004
(AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS

Table 4: The most intense mainland United States hurricanes,
1851-2004
(includes only major hurricanes at their most intense landfall).

Rank...Hurricane..........YEAR....CAT...MB....PRESSURE
1 Unnamed (FL Keys).......1935.....5....892....26.35
2 Camille (MS,SE LA,VA)...1969.....5....909....26.84
3 Andrew (SE FL, SE LA)...1992.....5....922....27.23
4 TX (Indianola)..........1886.....4....925....27.31
5 Unnamed (FL Keys,S TX)...1919.....4....927....27.37

CLICK THE LINK!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml