Peak Oil, impending doom, pessimism, etc.

[Cassius23]

First, a paraphrase from one of my favorite writers. "Resources exist wherever there is a human mind to utilize them." Oil may be going downhill fast and/or be getting more and more expensive. But did you know that there are already people who make their own fuel that is pretty cheap and uses only a little bit(about 1/50th) of non-organic fuel(it's mostly vegetable oil)? I'd be willing to bet that a full farm that has both animals and crops could probably make their own fuel, or even make a fuel that's a variation off of moonshine(or mix the two, actually). Them rednecks is daayyuumm clever they are, and more than half of them would probably be happy to not be bothered by the tax man(as an ex-redneck from Calera, Alabama, I know from experience).

And here's another morsel of thought from one of my favorite authors in an interview in 2001, re; optimism.

"One is, as long as things are unknown you might as well assume the best, because if you assume the worst you’re just making yourself miserable and ruining your digestion. It can even lead to ulcers. In extreme cases it even leads to heart attacks. I think pessimism is very, very dangerous, on health grounds. There’s actually research showing that optimists recover from diseases much faster than pessimists. So it’s a health measure, I try to preserve my optimism as a way of guarding my health."

[hatrack]

1. Biodiesel and ethanol require massive fossil fuel inputs

Natural gas for fertilzer, petroleum for herbicides and pesticides, diesel for pumps, machinery and transport, natural gas for drying grains - you get the picture.

There's no way that the current per acre production levels of mechanized agriculture can be maintained without these inputs. And without these inputs, we're left facing the prospect of trying to raise both food and fuel (whether in the form of ethanol or biodiesel) on land that is suddenly one-third to one-fifth as productive as it now is.

There are and will continue to be useful applications for biofuels, but they are most definitely not panacaeas.

[Ready4Change]

5. Got some interesting info re:biodiesel this last weekend.

Direct info from someone who is actually using it in day to day life.

Biodiesel from soy oil isn't that hard to make at all, and can run in many current diesel vehicles with little to no modification. In economic costs right now it is still a bit more expensive than petroleum diesel, but energy-wise it is still positive. (Provides more energy than it costs to make it.)

And soy isn't the most effective means of obtaining it, either.

As a devout Peak Oil pessimist, I'm finding some reasons to hope for a less harsh Post Oil crash.

[BlueEyedSon]

2. Tough choice, utilizing farmland to feed cars vs. feeding people.

[The2ndWheel]

3. We'll see

Everything has both an up, and down side to it. Oil does, and whatever(if anything) we have to replace it, will have the same problem. Nothing on this planet, and maybe the universe, is that perfect.

And my pessimism actually relaxes me.

[McKenzie]

4. it's ALL about oil...

Our profligate society is predicated on the illusion that there will be constant economic growth. That growth presupposes that energy is infinite. It isn't as we know so it's going to be a real wake up call when the masses realise that their kids are facing a world that is going to be unstable at the very least and possibly severely screwed up at the worst. Alternative energy sources are a joke if we think they will allow us to continue living the way we have become used to living. Make no mistake, our delusion of a rosy future with car ownership, constant electricity, loads of cheap goods and so on is nothing more than that...a delusion. I wish it were otherwise but I refuse to participate in mass denial.

We need to wake people up to what is going on. When they do wake up they will realise their political leaders have been guilty of what George Orwell called the worst form of lie...omission. The politicians know we are headed up shit creek but they aren't telling us. When the penny finally drops there will be a lot of very confused, and very angry, people out there. By then it'll be too late to do anything except try to get used to a very different world to the one we know.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
http://www.depletion-scotland.org.uk/

I must stop worrying though...you have a good point there.

regards

[triguy46]

6. Simplify, simplify, simlify.

Great concept, but not quite sure of the manure to fuel technology gap. To have the bio mass to make it requres some not insignficant inputs of resources/energy.

[YapiYapo]

7. Bio diesel.

Bio diesel production will never be enough to meet consumption.Not close to it.
Sure some may have a net positive energy balance, even if no fertilizer are used but that won't excess 10% of consumption.Keep in mind that when peak oil will hit we will need more arable surface for food as the production will decrease.

About being optimistic , you are missing the real peak oil problem which is ,we will wait until the problem is there to start looking for real answer,this is exactly why the effect of peak oil will be that big.Financing research in an economy crisis when energy will cost at least 4 or 5 times what it cost now is just plain stupid but that's what the world will do.