Odds on Bush re-election, democratic nominee...

[wyldwolf]

George W. Bush favored over the opposition field, 5 to 4 (55.6% chance he will be re-elected; downgraded Sept. 23 from 58.3% chance)

THE FAUCHEUX ANALYSIS: Bush remains a re-election favorite despite his rapid decline in the polls in recent weeks. Though his numbers have fallen, Democratic weaknesses -- more than GOP strength -- keeps Bush on top -- at least for now. But a reading into poll internnals indicates that Bush's problems are increasingly deep and widespread.

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION 2004

Gov. Howard Dean (VT), 9 to 2 (18.2% chance; upgraded from 16.7% Sept. 4 and from 14.3% Aug. 17).

Gen. Wesley Clark, 6 to 1 (14.3% chance; upgraded on Sept. 23 from 4.8% chance; upgraded from 3.2% chance Aug. 27).

U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 7 to 1 (12.5% chance; downgraded Sept. 23 from 16.7% chance; upgraded from 14.3% Aug. 17).

Sen. John Kerry (MA), 7 to 1 (12.5% chance; downgraded Sept. 23 from 14.3% chance).

Sen. Joe Lieberman (CT), 9 to 1 (10% chance; downgraded on Sept. 23 from 12.5% chance).

Sen. John Edwards (NC), 20 to 1 (4.8% chance; downgraded Aug. 27 from 6.3% change).

Sen. Bob Graham (FL), 25 to 1 (3.8% chance).

Carol Moseley-Braun (IL), 500 to 1 (less than 1% chance).

Rev. Al Sharpton (NY), 500 to 1 (less than 1% chance).

U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH), 500 to 1 (less than 1% chance).

Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY), 7 to 1 (12.5% chance).

Someone else, 100 to 1 (1% chance)

http://www.campaignline.com/index.cfm

[mlawson]

1. "bush's problems are increasingly deep and widespread".

THAT is far more telling than the numbers they cite. After all, it's more than a year until November 2004. We have plently of time for his problems to GROW... And once his numbers fall below some critical level, they will not go back up.

When we hear the WH referring wistfully to Harry Truman, we will know they are without hope. :-)

[Loyal]

2. Indeed

:)

[Julien Sorel]

3. That remains to be seen. A few weeks ago, there were people

here who had written Arnold off. There's lots of time between now and the election, and Bush is an incumbent with a ton of money to spend.

[JNelson6563]

4. & his support is a mile wide, 1/2 inch deep

and getting shallower as we speak. Buh-bye Jr.

We'll call you when we have figured out what all we can charge you with, we presume you'll be at the pig farm....

Julie