When Castro dies...

[ButterflyBlood]

there have been theories that then the alliance between the Republican party and Cuban Americans will come to and end. More Cuban Americans will then vote Democratic and Florida will become a solid blue state. Then we have a trifecta: California, New York and Florida, and the GOP is effectively barred from the White House.

But since Cuban Americans tend to be more socially conservative and dislike populist policies (since it's "too close" to Cuba), do you think that will happen?

[bluestateguy]

1. Good Question

If Castro simply dies because he's old and IF his regime collapses as a result, then yes many Cubans will not see any further use for the GOP. Although I don't see Cubans voting identically to Mexicans either. Maybe half and half. The other possibility is that many Cubans will go back to Cuba, or many more will come here. Who knows? It can cut many ways, but mostly I agree with you that most scenarios do not benefit the Republican Party in the long run.

[ButterflyBlood]

2. That's another point

the anti-Castro Republican ones then may just move back, and thus less Republican voters. The new generation also won't see anything good in the GOP.

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. no

Because Castro will never die. :)