Friends, I think we are about to lose New Orleans.

[benburch]

I've been up reading everything I can find about Katrina and about the New Orleans dike system...

Not only does it now appear that Katrina will be a nearly direct hit on the city, but that they storm surge will be higher than the dikes.

I really do believe that we are about to see the 100% destruction of New Orleans.

[BayouBengal07]

1. Shit...

I know we can't handle it...New Orleans is in a bowl (some of it up to 25 feet below sea level), and when we get even six inches of rain the pumping stations grind to a halt. Instead of letting it run off, because it is lower than its surroundings, every drop of water has to be pumped out. And the pumps can't handle it.

At least the second story of my house it high enough to withstand the possible 13 foot high water.

[madrchsod]

14. good luck

this storm looks like it could take out miles of flood control barriers across the area and leave you guys without a navigable river

[KyndCulture]

26. BayouBengal, please tell me you aren't in the city?

if you are GET OUT, please!!!!

I'm a native Floridian and I'm pretty desensitized to hurricane's but this storm is worse than camille. Please heed the warnings and get out!

[Birthmark]

30. Are you in NO?

If so, get out now. Really. That 13-foot storm surge is really near the minimum for a Category 4 hurricane. This one is well above the minimum and will probably have a surge of 18-feet. Of course, that's if it doesn't strengthen further. Since Katrina is about to encounter 90 degree water, further stregthening looks probable to me. That will push that storm surge to 20 feet or more. And don't forget that there will be waves on top of the surge. The second story of your house will NOT protect you. Anyone in NO needs to leave NOW!

[nankerphelge]

43. Yes indeed...

Do not stay in the city and try to ride it out. It's been a long time since we've seen a hurricane with a large number of deaths, but this one worries me.

[RebelOne]

65. But can your second story survive 175 mph winds?

Leave now.

[geomon666]

66. I don't think so

CAT 5 Andrew

[johnaries]

74. I read that a Cat 5 could drive the levels 20 feet!

I'll try to find the link AGAIN. But if you're still there, please GET OUT!

edit: read Cooley Herd's post #73.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

78. "Possible 13 foot high water"?? Maybe you need to reconsider that....

...the surge alone will be 20 feet, and waves will be stacked on top of that.

Get out while you still have the chance!

[Hubert Flottz]

2. Fueled by "Clean Coal" and fools!

I think global warming is going to prove it's own case, thanks to people like Mr. Bush.

[benburch]

5. ...

[existentialist]

195. It may have to,

They certainly won't listen to anybody.

[Rhiannon12866]

217. That was my first thought, also, my friend, global warming...

This past year has seen such a rash of natural disasters, especially hurricanes, and we know that warmer waters contribute to this. When is anybody going to wake up and smell the coffee?! This is not just coincidence, but a real environmental problem that we have to tackle and solve!:grr:

[all.of.me]

3. i am in the dark as to why n.o. was built this way.

any information?

[benburch]

6. It has progressively sunk since it was built. nt

[all.of.me]

8. is that just because of the land it is built on?

[benburch]

13. Yes...

It is built on a silted delta.

[all.of.me]

18. thanks. i have wondered this for years! prayers to everyone there and

all along the coast in that area.

[NVMojo]

187. ...wasn't this a problem for cemetaries there in the past?

[Pachamama]

212. Ugh...I just pictured images of floating coffins everywhere after storm...

..that and all the debris and toxic waste....

Sounds like riding the storm is going to be better than what will come after it has passed....

:puke:

[mtnester]

229. You are buried in an above ground vault in NO

no underground burials

[Pachamama]

241. Those could float too? Or not? Either way, I think its going to be a mes

:shrug:

[johnaries]

75. Over the years, silt deposited from the Miss river has built up the

land closest to the river. Raising the levels around the river and Lake Pochatrain higher than NO.

[DoYouEverWonder]

11. New Orleans is already under water

and relies on an elaborate system of dikes and pumps in order to stay dry. I do believe the city has sunk a bit since it was first built but in real estate, location is key and being at the mouth of the Mississippi has had its advantages despite the geological problems of maintaining a city below sea level.

Unfortunately, it looks like Katrina is heading for a direct hit and our worst fears are about to be realized.

[Roland99]

34. I visited there in June...water consistently over roadways along the lake.

[ovidsen]

27. An inevitable city on an impossible site.

Some historian (I forget who) called it that. It's where you want to site a strategic seaport; on a huge navigable river close to the sea.

It's not just that New Orleans is gradually sinking (it is). The Mississippi is gradually rising because of silt deposits in the riverbed and along its "natural levees", which are reinforced everytime the Big Muddy overflows.

New Orleans, I'm afraid, has been an accident waiting to happen. I'm hoping it survives, of course. I've had so much fun there!

[nankerphelge]

44. Chanelling the Mississipi also...

had an impact. Louisiana loses more wetlands every year to the ocean. The way the Mississippi used to flow, it widened at the end and deposited silt that protected the coastline. A lot of that is gone now.

[Dover]

101. I read that the original French settlers wanted to move it early on,

but it was too vital for shipping traffic...a major channel.
So the perceived advantages outweighed the geographical setbacks and it just continued to build. When the dikes and levies were put in to deal with the problems of the Mississippi River flooding, they simply created new problems because they dried up the wetland buffer that lay between the city and the Gulf.

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. The best hope is that as it approaches land.....

it will have a harder time wrapping around itself since it loses area over water, hence will weaken - seems to be over the past few years several stronger storms have dropped down a few notches when this happens. Here's hoping - and praying. Everyone anywhere near the path needs to be out of there. We had Fran pass through Raleigh in 1996 with 75 mph winds and it was remarkable how much damage it caused. sounds of winds whistling in the trees still freaks me out.

[OneGrassRoot]

31. I remember Fran.......

wanted to say hello, NRaleighLiberal....I live in Raleigh, too....:hi:

My thoughts and well wishes are with New Orleans today. Stay safe.

[NRaleighLiberal]

32. Hi there! good to hear from you....

[ultraist]

52. I'm in Raleigh too and remember Fran. This is going to be WORSE

I'll NEVER forget that night. My neighbors wanted to get in their car and leave the house because a huge tree had come through their kitchen. My husband and I told them to STAY OFF THE ROADS. It was dangerous just getting a few feet from our porch to their's.

Let's hope Katrina loses some steam before she slams into NO.

Stay safe everyone in that area!!! :hug:

[newsguyatl]

83. i was in chapel hill during fran

it was absolutely frightening beyond words -- to imagine it could cause that amount of damage inland!

my thoughts go out to everyone in new orleans and surrounding areas.

[leeroysphitz]

94. I went thru fran in Chapel Hill

We lived in the woods and lost over a dozen trees. They sounded like GIANT flyswatters coming down all over. Bad scene for the whole state for weeks afterwards.

[Oreo]

165. Fran sucked

90Mph winds in Raleigh. I remember the eye coming over. What a mess!!
My apt flooded and then flooded again 2 days later when we got more rain

[Endangered Specie]

126. I remember that too

No one thought Fran would do half of what it did, even in the worst case scenarios. I take it you remember Crabtree mall being flooded, I saw many a home flooded because it was too close to crabtree (shit) creek.

[Maru Kitteh]

159. Ewww *shudder* we went through Fran also, lived in Willow Spring

Yeah, that sound gives me the willies too. I'll never forget the endless streams of dump trucks carrying the all the trees and debris to the perpetual burning fires around the city. National guard everywhere, the constant thump of helicopters overhead and the silence of no electricity for weeks. That's when I found out that just standing outside your house you can hear electricity, even if there are no nearby operating devices you can hear it. When it's gone, the silence is overwhelming.

And Fran was just a measly little cat 3, right? I think it was only a one or two by the time it got to us.

[ladjf]

7. The large building in the center of New Orleans are built on

70 ft. pilings sitting directly on solid rock. Those structures will stand. But, for the residences, they may be mostly wiped out. After Camille hit Biloxi, nothing was left standing on the beach but the Edgewater Gulf Hotel, a building made of solid concrete.

[benburch]

10. I hope you are right.

But never underestimate the power of wind and water.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

81. With 175 mph winds and gusts over 200 mph, most windows will.....

...be blown out of those buildings, and the roof structures may also suffer severe damage.

[ladjf]

92. If its anything like Camille some real bad things will happen.

I couldn't believe my eyes when I drove down the beach front hi way in Biloxi right after Camille. There weren't enough structures standing for me to even recognize where I was. One old concrete hotel withstood it and that was it.

[geomon666]

93. Actually it's looking like it's going to be worse than Camille

It's already a stronger and slower storm.

[ladjf]

97. Then the only thing left standing might be the downtown office

buildings which are constructed on pilings anchored on solid bedrock.

[BamaBecky]

150. I saw it ...THE EDGEWATER...and the storm made a real mess of it too!

The bottom floor was obliterated......by water damage...but it did stand.....

Bama

[gasperc]

9. and since it was just upped to cat 6, even if it "brushes" N.O.

it will still cause tremendous damage

[annabanana]

12. There's a cat 6? I thought 5 was the highest..n/t

[Massacure]

16. gasperc is either being silly or doesn't know what he is talking about.

I assume the former.

[benburch]

21. It's a Cat 5 now.

I assume a typo.

[gasperc]

235. I was being silly

my point was that if the intensity of the storms continues to increase over the years, a category 5 would be like a cat 3 today

[faithfulcitizen]

163. 5 is highest, but i also heard a forecaster say...

if there was such a thing as a 6, it would be one. It really does look like it could take out a city easily. i just pray everyone leaves...very scary...

[madrchsod]

25. 908

just how much lower will it get?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

84. Here's a list of the most intense hurricanes at landfall....

Table 4: The most intense mainland United States hurricanes, 1851-2004 (includes only major hurricanes at their most intense landfall). Addendum for Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands.
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml>

TOP THREE AT LANDFALL:

1 Unnamed (FL Keys) - 1935 - Cat 5 - Pressure - 892 mb
2 Camille (MS, SE LA, VA) - 1969 - Cat 5 - Pressure - 909 mb
3 Andrew (SE FL, SE LA) - 1992 - Cat 5 - 922 mb

[existentialist]

194. What about

Galveston, Texas, 1900?

[subchicagogal]

15. Please don't take this the wrong way.....

but I really, really hope you're wrong. :cry: To all DU'ers in the NO area, please stay safe and I'll be pulling for you over the next 48 hours!

[benburch]

22. I hope I am wrong, too.

:(

[KyndCulture]

17. Just listening to coverage... FEMA wrote 5 years ago

The three things that could cause the largest loss of life in this country.
1. An earthquake in San Fran
2. A major terrorist attack
3. A hurricane in New Orleans.

I hope people are listening, I know weather wonks tend to blow plenty of smoke up people's asses, from being a native coastal Floridian, I'm pretty desensitized to hurricanes but this fucker is a MONSTER. I'm scared for our brothers and sisters down there.

[SaveAmerica]

36. I wonder in which part of '01 did FEMA write that part about a

terrorist attack?

[burythehatchet]

173. then go here

http://www.gratefulness.org/candles/intro1.cfm?l=ENG&s=f

[Conservativesux]

222. Big difference is the San Francisco area is ready for a big quake

and most of the structures and bridges are built or retrofited to withstand a major quake, for the most part.

[theHandpuppet]

19. Pressure just dropped again to 908 mb

I hope all the oil rigs in her way have been evacuated.

[Silverhair]

132. I used to work offshore oil, about 25 years ago.

They evacuate those things early, as soon as a hurricane is in the gulf. But then the crews have to drive home and evacuate their families.

Some of the crew members live hundreds of miles from the catch out point.

[tocqueville]

20. I hope they make it

it's also a destruction of French heritage, New Orleans is important to France, to the World....

I blame the responsibles local or federal that didn't put the money to build higher dikes, when they knew it was bound to happen someday

[babylonsister]

23. This article bears repeating:

THE BIG ONE
A major hurricane could decimate the region, but flooding from even a moderate storm could kill thousands. It's just a matter of time.

"A catastrophic hurricane represents 10 or 15 atomic bombs in terms of the energy it releases. Think about it. New York lost two big buildings. Multiply that by 10 or 20 or 30 in the area impacted and the people lost, and we know what could happen."

Joseph Suhayda
LSU Engineer


By Mark Schleifstein and John McQuaid
Staff writers

The line of splintered planks, trash and seaweed scattered along the slope of New Orleans' lakefront levees on Hayne Boulevard in late September 1998 marked more than just the wake of Hurricane Georges. It measured the slender margin separating the city from mass destruction.

The debris, largely the remains of about 70 camps smashed by the waves of a storm surge more than 7 feet above sea level, showed that Georges, a Category 2 storm that only grazed New Orleans, had pushed waves to within a foot of the top of the levees. A stronger storm on a slightly different course -- such as the path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall -- could have realized emergency officials' worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of gallons of lake water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage.

That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles. At the same time, high winds and tornadoes would tear at everything left standing. Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross.

"A catastrophic hurricane represents 10 or 15 atomic bombs in terms of the energy it releases," said Joseph Suhayda, a Louisiana State University engineer who is studying ways to limit hurricane damage in the New Orleans area. "Think about it. New York lost two big buildings. Multiply that by 10 or 20 or 30 in the area impacted and the people lost, and we know what could happen."

Hundreds of thousands would be left homeless, and it would take months to dry out the area and begin to make it livable. But there wouldn't be much for residents to come home to. The local economy would be in ruins.

The scene has been played out for years in computer models and emergency-operations simulations. Officials at the local, state and national level are convinced the risk is genuine and are devising plans for alleviating the aftermath of a disaster that could leave the city uninhabitable for six months or more. The Army Corps of Engineers has begun a study to see whether the levees should be raised to counter the threat. But officials say that right now, nothing can stop "the big one."

Much more at:

http://www.nola.com/washingaway/thebigone_1.html

[Ladyhawk]

68. Why do we human beings talk about preventing disasters,

but never get around to actually acting?

[Silverhair]

134. Some disasters can't be prevented.

You can't tame a big hurricane. The only way to prevent it would have been to move New Orleans itself to a safe place.

[Ladyhawk]

161. I think I meant "mitigated." :)

Perhaps a better plan should have been in place. I just read about the gutting of FEMA and wonder if this could have been handled better, that's all.

[Silverhair]

164. Not really.

The problem that nobody here wants to face is that there is a physical limit on the ways out of N.O. Nobody can change that, at least not quickly. Can you build a 24 lane bridge, 27 miles long, with all the needed access points, in one day? That is what is needed.

They could have opened all lanes sooner. That's about all I see.

[NVMojo]

188. I'm guessing the local taxpayers are drained, then we had to spend

a trillion dollars in taxpayers money in Iraq for the neocons and the Carlyle Group "have and have mores."

[SeveneightyWhoa]

127. Jesus. The end of that article..

..reads like a HORROR story or a really bad nightmare.

"Stranded survivors will have a dangerous wait even after the storm passes. Emergency officials worry that energized electrical wires could pose a threat of electrocution and that the floodwater could become contaminated with sewage and with toxic chemicals from industrial plants and backyard sheds. Gasoline, diesel fuel and oil leaking from underground storage tanks at service stations may also become a problem, corps officials say.

A variety of creatures -- rats, mice and nutria, poisonous snakes and alligators, fire ants, mosquitoes and abandoned cats and dogs -- will be searching for the same dry accommodations that people are using.

Contaminated food or water used for bathing, drinking and cooking could cause illnesses including salmonella, botulism, typhoid and hepatitis. Outbreaks of mosquito-borne dengue fever and encephalitis are likely, said Dr. James Diaz, director of the department of public health and preventive medicine at LSU School of Medicine in New Orleans."

[jean]

191. there are two more pages after that ...

[Al-CIAda]

24. I am about to leave now (NO) but I want to be on record.

I don't think this will do the damage the hype claims. I further predict a rightward turn and diminishing strength just as it approaches land. It has always been thus, and I expect it to behave this way again.

I have been through just about every hurricane for over 40 years. I've seen them all. This will be the first time I am evacuating. Actually I'm really sad to leave and miss all the 'fun'. Experiencing the energy and force of a hurricane is exhilerating, and for the first time I won't be part of it.

Well wishes to fellow NOers who cannot leave, but at least you aren't about to drive to bum f' egypt with your freeper parents (who gave you 'Left Behind' last Christmas to save you) to stay in a motel some 400 miles away.

[benburch]

28. Please get at least 150 miles inland. nt

[charlie]

29. I know what you mean

I've been through over a dozen. Rode out a direct hit from Mirielle, it was spectacular, monstrous, awesome, a landmark memory in my life.

Now GIT!!!! :)

[SlowDownFast]

33. Good for you (except for freeper parents)

I got a bad feeling about this one.

It's the perfect model that everyone feared would hit NO.

If this don't wipe it out, you have a good model on which to further base your future predictions.

Live and learn, live and learn.

[Boomer]

35. 40 years is not long enough to "see it all"

This "I know what to expect" mentality drives me insane. Humans have very SHORT lives, and no person alive today has seen the full range of hurricane force.

The last 30 years or so have been a lull, the low activity phase of a very long cycle. We are now beginning a new HIGH activity phase, one that could last several decades. And one that may be further exacerbated by even warmer ocean temperatures than were present during the last high cycle.

Get a clue, folks. This is a different reality that can't be compared to what has happened in your brief span on this planet.

[GodHelpUsAll2]

80. Get a clue folks?

Do you have inside information that no one else does?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

88. What is it that you missed in his post? I thought Boomer spelled it....

...out pretty clearly, IMHO.

Don't take this the wrong way (but I'm sure that you will), if you have to ask the question you asked, maybe you're among the people to whom Boomer was referring.

[Boomer]

118. Science forum has been posting these reports for months

The Atlantic is entering a period of high storm activity which has not been experienced in over 30 years.

So saying "I've seen it all" when you're only talking about two or three decades of experience is naive. Thirty years is not a comprehensive experience on which to base your assessment of storm risk.

Yet I keep seeing messages on this forum from people who are making their decision not to evacuate based on what they've seen in their short lifespan. There seems to be no awareness of just how much conditions are changing.

[BamaBecky]

153. He may be old enough to remember Camille...in which case

I would say he has seen it all...........
Bama

[SaveAmerica]

38. Good luck on that drive! on the one hand - Katrina on the other -

"drive to bum f' egypt with your freeper parents (who gave you 'Left Behind' last Christmas to save you" Oh my!

:shrug:

I hope your prediction is right and you come home to minimal damage!

[Minstrel Boy]

41. Hope you're right, Al-CIAda

Glad to hear you're getting out of the way. :hi:

[Eloriel]

45. Uh, yeah, I'd be tempted to choose the hurricane over that too

:evilgrin:

Please stay safe. And as for missing the "fun," you're likely to get some of that unless you're getting on an airplane outta the region.

Good luck!

[proud2BlibKansan]

67. Sounds like this one ain't gonna be all that much 'fun'

That motel 400 miles away and those freeper parents just may be saving your life.

[0007]

69. I hope your right '0 timer.......

[flyarm]

121. please AL-CIAda..be safe dearest!..my heart and paryers are with

you...do be safe!!..
sending giant hugs !!!!!!!

from fla fly!

[Rhiannon12866]

219. Check out this thread. Whether it helps, or not, it's something you can do

I did.:hug:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4484610

[slutticus]

139. I hope you're right. I really do.

[BamaBecky]

152. If it all wasn't so serious....you would have me laughing...

I do hope you and your freeper parents ( I have them too) are well on the way......you could come here....if you are still online PM me and I'll give you directions!

Bama

[Tigress DEM]

156. Even freeper parents have some good ideas!

They may not connect the dots on why our weather is freaking out and support the very administration that is hoping to push these kind of storms into everyday news so they don't have to make things up to scare us... but if your folks love you enough to get you out of its path, I say, "God bless them" and "God's speed to you."

[Sgent]

37. interesting study @ LSU

I'd like to share some rather startling statistics about hurricane evacuations in the NOLA area. Here is a link to the full text:

http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/Adobe%20files%20for%20webpage/reports%20&%20meeting%20minutes/Annual%20Interim%20Report%20%20-%20Yr2%20Final%20Narrative,%20HEF%202001-06-01.pdf
pg 25-47

Preliminary Results
...Among our measures of likely evacuation behavior was one that asked
respondents what they would do if a storm as severe as Hurricane Andrew—a Category 4 storm—
threatened New Orleans. Our analyzes thus far focus on that measure of probable evacuation behavior.
We focus these analyzes further on the proportion of individuals who would leave the New Orleans area,
and on its correlates. Overall, we find that 68.8% of respondents would leave the area, 9.8% would
leave their homes but remain in the area, and 21.4% would remain in their homes. That 21.4% of
respondents would remain in their homes is a startling and important statistic, because it indicates
that nearly 1 in 4 residents would refuse to leave their homes.
Turning to the correlates of evacuation, we find that homeowners are much more likely than renters to
report that they would leave the area (73.97% vs. 56.76%). Only 44.44% of mobile-home dwellers
would leave the area. Approximately 71% of those residing in single-family homes would leave the
area, 63.79% of those in multi-family residences would do so, 66.67% of apartment dwellers would
leave, and 63.64% of others would leave the area. Only 19.84% of those in single-family homes would
remain in their homes.
Of those who have insurance on their homes, 73.94% would leave the area; nearly 86% of those who do
not have insurance would leave the area. The correlation between hurricane experience and evacuation
behavior is interesting: Of those who have no experience with a storm, about 75% would leave; of those
who have experienced something other than a big storm, 67% would leave. About 66% of those who
have experienced a big storm would leave the area. Length of residence has an interesting relationship
with evacuation behavior, as well. The data suggest that those who have lived in New Orleans longer
are less likely to leave. Of those who have lived in the area less than 10 years, 81% would leave the
area; 77% of those who have lived there 10-19 years, 68% of those who have lived there 20-29 years,
64% of those who have lived there 30-39 years, and only 60% of those who have lived in New Orleans
40 or more years would leave the area.
As one would expect, we find a strong relationship between the level of perceived threat to one’s family
and the probability of evacuation. Of those who view a large storm as a “serious” threat to their lives,
82% would leave. Only 57% of those who cast it as “somewhat” of a threat, 47% of those who say “not
much” of a threat, and 30% of those who say “no threat” would leave. We see a similar pattern for
perceived threat of injury and property damage. Of those who live in a flood-prone area, 72% would
evacuate, as opposed to 59% of those who do not. Among individuals who report that they would
evacuate, but remain in the area, approximately 40% would stay in a shelter (as opposed to 5% of those
who would leave the area). Of those who would leave the area, 42% would go to a hotel/motel and 53%
would seek shelter with friends/relatives. Turning to the issue of which direction they would travel if
they left the area, less than 2% would head toward Morgan City, only about 4% would travel toward
Biloxi, and less than 9% would go toward McComb. Approximately 26% would go toward Baton Rouge, 14% would move in the direction of Hattiesburg, and 45% would travel in some “other”
direction.
Interestingly, perceived neighborhood safety appears to be a correlate of evacuation behavior. Of those
who perceive their neighborhoods to be “very” or “fairly” safe, 70% would evacuate. Only 56% of
those who perceive their neighborhoods to be “not very safe” or “not safe at all” would do so. Of those
who own cars, 74% would leave, as opposed to 50% of those who would not. Although the relationship
is not monotonic, higher-income individuals are generally more likely to say that they would evacuate
than those with lower incomes are. Correspondingly, only 55% of those who receive public assistance,
but 70% of those who do not, would leave the area. Caucasians/whites are more likely than African
Heritage/blacks (72% versus 65%) and men are more likely than women (71% versus 67%) to leave the
area. Individuals who are in poor health are far less likely to evacuate (43%) than those in other
categories (68% of those in “fair” health, 70% of those in “good” health, and 73% of those in
“excellent” health). Of those who experience “a great deal” of trouble getting around, only 50% would
evacuate, as opposed to 58% of those who have “quite a bit” of difficulty doing so, 64% of those with
“some” difficulty, 69% of those with “a little” difficulty, and 72% of those who experience no difficulty.
Those who work away from home are more likely to report that they would leave than those who do not
(78% versus 67%).

[pretzel4gore]

40. oh god, galveston again!

i recently read a book about the galveston event in early 1900's, biker water...new orleans is a wonderful city, and the poor will try to ride it out.
bush is giggling into his milkshake, thanking the blonde jeezus

[HamdenRice]

39. French Quarter Tourists: Only dangerous hurricanes, ones we're drinking

These folks don't sound too wise. Mayor says, book a hotel room but above the third floor (WTF!?!?!):

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/WWL082805bourbonst.3cf39c.html

Trapped: French Quarter tourists to ride out storm

Mary Foster / Associated Press

The bands were blaring on Bourbon Street, the bar tables were packed and the drinks were flowing.

"The only dangerous hurricanes so far are the ones we've been drinking," said Fred Wilson of San Francisco, as he sipped on the famous drink at Pat O'Brien's Bar. "We can't get out, so we might as well have fun."

As Hurricane Katrina whipped its way through the Gulf of Mexico toward New Orleans, some tourists were forced to stay put because flights and rental cars were booked up. Others were lucky enough to change reservations early and get out of town.

...

"The only thing I can say to them is I hope they have a hotel room, and it's a hotel room that's at least on the third floor and up," <Mayor C. Ray> Nagin said. "Unfortunately, unless they can rent a car to get out of town, which I doubt they can at this point, they're probably in the position of riding the storm out." In the French Quarter, the revelers, street musicians, tarot card readers and fortune tellers carried on like it was any other Saturday.

"I'll be here tomorrow, I'm not leaving," said trombonist Eddie "Doc" Lewis. "I've been through typhoons, monsoons, tornadoes, hurricanes and every other phoon, soon or storm. I'm not worried."

[Carni]

89. Drank two "skylabs" at Pat O'briens years ago

I wouldn't have cared if a bus fell on my head afterwards.

That guy is going to have one walloping hangover if he wakes up and sees 25 feet of water on the ground.

[opihimoimoi]

42. PLEASE LET ANNETTE STREET BE SPARED......plz.......

Oscar and Harold lived there

[xultar]

120. You know Harold? Old dude with a long grey ponytail!

[katinmn]

46. Has anyone heard from Swamp Rat??

He said he was staying because his parents were staying and he needed to look after them.

[mohinoaklawnillinois]

48. I read on another thread that Swamp Rat and his father are

leaving today at noon for Memphis. His mom and her SO are in a hotel in downtown NO and are safe for now.

I'm listening to the the live feed from WWL tv in NO and it's getting really scary. They just announced that the Superdome will be opened for shelter for people with medical needs only. They are still waiting for the NO mayor's news conference.

Saying now this is a potentially catastrophic storm and has the potential for a great loss of life.

God help the people of New Orleans in the next 36 hours. Hopefully, this monster will weaken.

[katinmn]

51. Thanks! Glad he is moving onto higher ground.

:hi:

[ultraist]

59. {{{{S W A M P R A T}}}}} STAY SAFE!

:hug:

[Rhiannon12866]

220. I agree. He's a unique talent, a great guy and my friend on DU.

I found this this thread and it made me feel better. I lit a candle for all of our friends in harm's way. I don't know if it helped, but it sure couldn't hurt...:shrug:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4484610

[Ladyhawk]

64. I hope you can get your family out, Swamp Rat. :( n/t

[fooj]

82. Stay safe, Swamp Rat!

Peace.

[SlowDownFast]

47. Cat 5 now, via CNN.

Anything can happen, now.

Whether is swings west or east, who can say?

[ohio_liberal]

54. Governor of LA is on CNN now

Telling people in no uncertain terms to get out now. Shelters are certain to lose electricity or be on minimum electricity provided by generators.

She's giving people precise directions out of the city. Urban center traffic is to a crawl.

[ohio_liberal]

55. Fender benders hanging up traffic

Telling people to get off the roads if you're in an accident, don't stop the flow of traffic.

[BiggJawn]

49. Just heard that the MANDATORY "Bug Out" order was given...

Oh, dear.....

[mohinoaklawnillinois]

50. Mayor of New Orleans is ordering mandatory evacuation of

all of the parish of Orleans. NOW!!!

The storm surge will most likely topple the levee system. Superdome open for people with special medical needs. At noon today, the Superdome will be opened up as a refuge of last resort for citizens of New Orleans with no other choice for shelter.

God Help them all.

[Blue_Roses]

53. sitting here thinking the same thing

damn, damn, damn...there are so many historic buildings there that will be wiped out. This is my home state and I have many friends in NO that I'm worried about. I'm glued to the weather channel...:cry:

[FreedomAngel82]

56. That's really scary

A friend of mine used to live there but she now lives in New York City and moved up there earlier this month. She still has friends back there and I hope they're all okay and everybody in New Orleans. :cry:

[GumboYaYa]

57. More than 100,000 people have no way out of the city.

I am praying for all of the people of the LA/MS Gulf coast now.

I've been through several hurricanes, one of them a category four. The difference between a four and a two or three is amazing. It is hard to fathom the power a 5 packs.

If you can get out of NO do it now. Don't take chances.

GOOD LUCK!!!!

[converted_democrat]

58. The Mayor just said as a last resort-

They would be com-endearing property and personal vehicles to give them more options for possible shelters and transportation to get to them.

[Esse Quam Videri]

60. Just in...... winds at 175mph

Just heard on CNN. Good God!

[ohio_liberal]

61. CNN just reported sustained winds of 175mph

:scared:

[Benbow]

96. Already too late then for people to walk - this is awful n/t

[deminks]

62. Weather Channel: 175 mph nt

:scared:

[Ladyhawk]

63. Shit...the forecast looks to be a direct hit on New Orleans.

What's the best case scenario for a shift?

[flvegan]

71. I don't think that there is one.

At least the folks in NO are "prepared" and leaving. If it shifts and lands somewhere that everyone isn't expecting and preparing...the devastation would be even more overwhelming.

I happened last year in Tampa, with Charley. We were ready, Charlotte and Polk counties weren't, and they paid dearly. The last minute shift was a horror for lots of people. Charley was "only" a cat 4, too.

[benburch]

72. Best case is that the center misses NO by 50 miles.

But the high-probability tracks seem to say MUCH closer.

[Lorien]

77. Hurricane Charley veered far outside the projected path

Katrina could do the same.

[geomon666]

85. Not really

Katrina is being guided by two different weather conditions. Without those in place Katrina would be heading west a lot more instead of north. Since those conditions are in place, the storm has no choice but to follow that North-Northwest path.

[dweller]

70. self del

wrong thread.

my apologies
dp

[Cooley Hurd]

73. You might be right, ben... :(

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane1.html

Hurricane Risk for New Orleans

<snip>
Think about the great cities in this country, and one of them will be New Orleans. On a recent evening, a scientist pulls up in the French Quarter. Joe Suhayda takes a plastic rod out of his trunk and he proceeds to show us what could happen the next time a hurricane hits New Orleans.

"OK, this is tool that I have a range rod," explains Suyhayda. "It will show us how high the water would be if we were hit with a Category Five Hurricane."

Which would mean what?

"Twenty feet of water above where we are standing now," says Suyhayda.



<snip>

A couple of days ago," explains Maestri, "We actually had an exercise where we brought a fictitious Category Five Hurricane into the metropolitan area."

The map is covered with arrows and swirls in erasable marker. They show how the fictitious hurricane crossed Key West and then smacked into New Orleans.

When the computer models showed Maestri what would happen next, he wrote big letters on the map, all in capitals.

"KYAGB—kiss your ass good bye," reads Maestri.

"Because," says Maestri, "anyone who was here when that storm came across was gone—it was body-bag time. We think 40,000 people could lose their lives in the metropolitan area."

MUCH more at link...

Fuck!!!!:scared:

[Karenina]

90. Criminal neglect.

Babylonsister posted this in another thread...

23. This article bears repeating:

THE BIG ONE
A major hurricane could decimate the region, but flooding from even a moderate storm could kill thousands. It's just a matter of time.

"A catastrophic hurricane represents 10 or 15 atomic bombs in terms of the energy it releases. Think about it. New York lost two big buildings. Multiply that by 10 or 20 or 30 in the area impacted and the people lost, and we know what could happen."

Joseph Suhayda
LSU Engineer


By Mark Schleifstein and John McQuaid
Staff writers

The line of splintered planks, trash and seaweed scattered along the slope of New Orleans' lakefront levees on Hayne Boulevard in late September 1998 marked more than just the wake of Hurricane Georges. It measured the slender margin separating the city from mass destruction.

The debris, largely the remains of about 70 camps smashed by the waves of a storm surge more than 7 feet above sea level, showed that Georges, a Category 2 storm that only grazed New Orleans, had pushed waves to within a foot of the top of the levees. A stronger storm on a slightly different course -- such as the path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall -- could have realized emergency officials' worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of gallons of lake water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage.

That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles. At the same time, high winds and tornadoes would tear at everything left standing. Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross.

"A catastrophic hurricane represents 10 or 15 atomic bombs in terms of the energy it releases," said Joseph Suhayda, a Louisiana State University engineer who is studying ways to limit hurricane damage in the New Orleans area. "Think about it. New York lost two big buildings. Multiply that by 10 or 20 or 30 in the area impacted and the people lost, and we know what could happen."

Hundreds of thousands would be left homeless, and it would take months to dry out the area and begin to make it livable. But there wouldn't be much for residents to come home to. The local economy would be in ruins.

The scene has been played out for years in computer models and emergency-operations simulations. Officials at the local, state and national level are convinced the risk is genuine and are devising plans for alleviating the aftermath of a disaster that could leave the city uninhabitable for six months or more. The Army Corps of Engineers has begun a study to see whether the levees should be raised to counter the threat. But officials say that right now, nothing can stop "the big one."

Much more at:

http://www.nola.com/washingaway/thebigone_1.html




The conclusion of the piece you posted, Cooley Hurd...


Hurricane Risk for New Orleans

Conclusion

We've tried to find scientists who'd say that the predictions you've heard in this story will probably never come true. We haven't been able to find them.
The main debate seems to be: Should the government spend billions of dollars to try to protect a city from a disaster that might not happen?
Remember, scientists say the odds are something like one in six that a hurricane will hit New Orleans over the next 50 years.


Walter Maestri says, maybe the city will be lucky. He says on the other hand, if a killer hurricane does strike New Orleans, then you and the rest of the nation's taxpayers will have to pay the mind-boggling costs of dealing with the carnage and destruction.

"One of the things that's frustrating now for all of us in my business," explains Maestri, "is that if that Category Five Hurricane comes to New Orleans, 50,000 people could lose their lives. Now that is significantly larger than any estimates that we would have of individuals who might lose their lives from a terrorist attack. When you start to do that kind of calculus - and it's horrendous that you have to do that kind of calculus - it appears to those of us in emergency management, that the risk is much more real and much more significant, when you talk about hurricanes. I don't know that anybody, though, psychologically, has come to grip with that: that the French Quarter of New Orleans could be gone."

[Rhiannon12866]

218. Excellent article. Thank you! A must-read, IMHO! And I did note the date.

As for scary, that doesn't even begin to describe how I felt while reading this (though it took me awhile, since I printed it out and my dog chose to lie on it, so I had to extricate it from under her, page by page, LOL!). You posted the most frightening aspect, but there was so much more.
:scared:

The fact that the planned evacuation routes are subject to flooding and evacuees could just be washed away. The disintegration of the wetlands, which Aaron Brown also mentioned, which leaves he city even more vulnerable, and certainly must have become worse under this anti-environment administration. And their dependence on the National Guard in times of emergency. I have said this before, what happens in a case of emergency when our first responders are not here, but in Iraq?! Approximately 300 National Guard troops are MIA from New Orleans. And the fact that the toxic waste will flow into the city... And the failure of the pumping systems under water... The list goes on and on, but this article nails it and I just hope that they implemented what this article said would be needed in a worst-case scenario like this.
:scared:

Thanks again for posting this. Another kick from me...:kick:

[Lorien]

76. Hurricanes are strange things. There's still time

it could veer off course or stall. I'm trying not to lose hope (and yes, I saw that Bill Moyers piece on what a hurricane could do to New Orleans years ago).

[earth mom]

79. Sending good vibes and prayers to the people of New Orleans! eom

[Carni]

86. I am sick to my stomach over this

Praying for the city and everyone in it.

I am not usually a prayer person but it can't hurt.

[nashville_brook]

87. some good visuals

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWideNew.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=FloaterImagery&product=Float6loop&prodnav=none&pid=none

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/visir/atlantic/visirjava2.html

[benburch]

91. CURRENT PROBABLE STRIKE

Eye will make landfall nearly due south of New Orleans at about 3:30 AM as a Cat-5 storm if the analysis I just read holds true. Storm is speeding up and intensifying. Storm is over 90+ degree water, and is sucking energy out of it.

[AgadorSparticus]

95. this thought crossed my mind last night when it was a high 4. now that

it is a 5, I don't know...I'm just so scared for NO. I am praying praying for those in the path of this awful storm. I am so worried for the pets too. I wish I could just go there and scoop them all up.

[benburch]

98. Outer bands showing on regional radar now.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=d4&size=2x

[steve2470]

99. In case you don't know, SWAMPRAT IS OK. I talked to him last night

He, his brother and father are all in Memphis. His mom is in a very good hotel in downtown NO. That was the best he could do with her, because she's very old and has an SO who's sickly I believe.

[friesianrider]

100. People, please...

Can we just stay calm about this? Geez, I know I'm safely out of the path and all, but for God's sake can we stop with the doomsday predictions? Yes, it will likely be a terrible storm, but we're doing NO ONE any favors by saying the city will be leveled and everyone's going to die.

People need to stay CALM and safe, not be freaking out and endangering their own lives and others' lives because everyone is telling them the city is about to cease to exist. Everyone in N.O. KNOWS this is a serious, strong storm...let's just calm down a little and send our good vibes, thoughts, and prayers to those in the path.

On edit: spelling, drat!

[benburch]

102. Ummm...

Sad to say, but you don't know what you are talking about.

Tens of thousands will be dead by tomorrow afternoon if a miracle does not change the course of this storm. It is a mathematical equation.

[smbolisnch]

103. I think what she meant was not to scare people half to death.

Hell I am in the NE and all of these threads are freaking me out. I don't think there is anyone here who doubts the intensity of this storm, and the chaos it will bring.

Maybe we should just chill out with all of the "you people are about to die" threads. :shrug:

[friesianrider]

104. And you know this how? Are you God?

There's no reason to be so rude.

I think "tens of thousands" dead is a little overreactive, at least I hope so. I'm just making a plea for people to remain calm in a situation like this. I think everyone in the path knows this is a serious and dangerous storm and saying things like "the city will be gone by tomorrow!" doesn't help ANYTHING.

I'm just asking that people please try to remain calm, and stay safe.

[Pepperbelly]

105. Keeping your head in this situation ...

could well mean that you do not understand its gravity.

:D

[friesianrider]

107. I'm just confused what telling people they're going to die accomplishes.

:shrug:

I'm sure everyone knows this is extremely serious, but it is vital that people remain calm. Telling people they're all going to die doesn't accomplish anything. All I;m saying.

[Pepperbelly]

109. and ...

I was cracking wise ...

Forgive me during this solemn situation.

[benburch]

111. No, just a fellow who has studied storms and shipwrecks for 40 years.

I know what a monster this is. You clearly do not.

[friesianrider]

114. What the heck...of course I realize what a monster this is.

:wtf:

Again I ask what screaming "you're all gonna die!" accomplishes? More people are killed in emergencies because they freak the hell out and do not remain calm. Saying things like "you're all going to die" or "the city is going to be leveled!" does ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to keep people calm, which will be essential to surviving this undoubtedly dangerous hurricane.

No one is doubting this hurricane's severity or deadliness - you're missing my point. I'm only asking that yes, we tell people how severe this is but that we also encourage people to remain calm, for that will save more lives than screaming that everyone is going to die.

On edit: punctuation typo :)

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

112. That's bullshit. "Tens of thousands will be dead by tomorrow afternoon if

a miracle does not change the course of this storm. It is a mathematical equation."

Show me the math.



You can start here. Please take note on the disclaimer in the upper right hand corner.

[smbolisnch]

113. I'd like to see that math myself.

These doomsday predictions are ridiculous.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

123. I don't think there's an answer forthcoming...

too busy kicking the thread.

[smbolisnch]

124. Doesn't look promising.

Talk about fear mongering. :eyes:

[benburch]

125. Here are your equations...

http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/Adobe%20files%20for%20webpage/reports%20&%20meeting%20minutes/Annual%20Interim%20Report%20%20-%20Yr2%20Final%20Narrative,%20HEF%202001-06-01.pdf

Don't respond until you have read and understood the whole thing. I did.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

129. I scanned the 47 page document and could not find one mathematic

model that you referred to in the post I answered.

Please, for us cretins who aren't on the doomsday bus, explain why it's a mathematical certainty that "tens of thousands are going to die" unless god steps in (read: miracle).

There was not one segment in that report that gave figures as to death expectancies unless I missed it in my cursory scan.

[smbolisnch]

131. Nope

I didn't see it either.

[friesianrider]

135. Me either.

:shrug:

[smbolisnch]

130. I didn't see it give specific numbers for casualties,

granted I just skimmed it. I am not going to read 40 pages. Why don't you just simplify it for us? :shrug:

[Pepperbelly]

138. That was a frightening document ...

I hadn't even considered the oil infrastructure there and the danger for an ecological disaster as well as the floods, tidal surge, winds, rain, and loss of utility services ...

A perfect storm.

edited for spelling. Yes, I know it was short but I still managed to mis-spell something.

[benburch]

140. I'm glad somebody did more than skim it.

And note it is considering a category 4 storm.

[smbolisnch]

141. You still haven't told us where those figures were.

:shrug:

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

144. And he won't. Because they aren't there.

Come on, Swinger Ben. Clue us in!

Are you a wagering man?

100% destruction of New Orleans?

That is probably one of the most irresponsible and meritless statements I have ever read on this board.

[smbolisnch]

145. Agreed. I cannot believe someone would make a statement like that

without facts to back it up.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

148. But it sure drew a herd of lemmings.

*sigh*

[benburch]

147. I would have thought you could work this out for yourself.

It is elementary;


Overall, we find that 68.8% of respondents would leave the area, 9.8% would leave their homes but remain in the area, and 21.4% would remain in their homes. That 21.4% of respondents would remain in their homes is a startling and important statistic, because it indicates that nearly 1 in 4 residents would refuse to leave their homes.


Population of New Orleans in the most recent census; 484674

484674 * 21% = 101781 round it off to 100,000

Those remaining will be in an extremely hazardous situation, here is the table of probable outcomes;

Mortality Rate Number of Deaths

30% 30,000
20% 20,000
10% 10,000
5% 5000
1% 1000

Now, how many will die of those who remain? If you remain in a home in the NOLA basin, and it floods, as seems very likely, and if emergency workers cannot reach you, which also seems likely, and given death rates in similar situations of flooding, I think that around 25% mortality for those who remain in their homes is not unlikely in the slightest, and that is the basis of my calculation.

This ignores deaths not in NOLA proper, also likely to be quite high.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

154. You left off the disclaimer two paragraphs down...

"As one would expect, we find a strong relationship between the level of a perceived threat to one's family and the probability of evacuation."

I've been monitoring the WWLTV feed and kinda think that the perceived threat is above the typical spiel.

I hope it doesn't upset you too badly when there are not even thousands of deaths to wake up to on GAMA tomorrow.

Oh, and percentages from a Gov't report hardly make a mathematical model for a death rate in a disaster zone.

[benburch]

155. I would be quite happy if nobody dies.

But I simply do not expect that outcome.

[benburch]

157. Katrina--strongest hurricane ever in Gulf of Mexico

From Dr. Jeff Master's blog;

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=81&tstamp=200508&theprefset=BLOG&theprefvalue=0

Posted by: JeffMasters, 6:23 PM EDT on August 28, 2005

The 4:38pm EDT NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission found a central pressure of 903 mb, up from the 902 measured at 3:30pm. These pressures make Katrina the strongest hurricane ever observed in the Gulf of Mexico, surpassing Camille. Although the pressure has stopped falling, there is no indication that Katrina is about to undergo weakening, like we saw yesterday during her eyewall replacement cycle. When that cycle started, the eye diameter was 9 nm, but the present eye diameter is 25 nm. Eyewall replacement cycles usually begin when the eye shrinks below 10 nm, and there are no indications that Katrina's eye is going to shrink.

The list of strongest hurricanes of all time now reads:

Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)

The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)

Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)

Hurricane Katrina (902 mb, 2005)

Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)

Landfall location and intensity

Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since the evacuation order was given too late to get all the people out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knoick down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.

I have focused on New Orleans in much of my discussions about this storm, but Katrina will do tens of billions in damage all along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Mobile Bay could well see a 10-foot storm surge. And inland areas will take heavy damage as well; Katrina will still be a hurricane 180 miles inland, and cause widespread flooding throughout the Tennessee Valley.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you in Katrina's way, and I urge all readers of this blog to do the same.

Jeff Masters

[friesianrider]

170. Yeah, and...

How exactly does that translate into "tens of thousands" dead? Sorry to burst your bubble, but your overblown rhetoric and scare tactics are ONLY scaring people.

And why haven't you responded to my thread above?

I ask again: what exactly are you hoping to accomplish by telling people they're all going to die and "we're going to lose NO"?

[benburch]

175. I haven't responded to you because I don't appreciate hostility.

However,

My motivation was to get people to evacuate themselves if they could, and to let others know what my experience and study in the ways of severe storms led me to think is a probable outcome. I have never been in favor of sugar-coating reality. If people know what is coming they can volunteer in the morning for disaster relief, call the Red Cross to give blood, adjust their personal plans, etc. Having information on probable outcomes is an unmitigated good, else why have a Weather Bureau?

I am not at all alone in predicting that the death toll from a levy failure at New Orleans will cost tens of thousands of lives, you know. And even on CBS radio this afternoon I heard estimates of "thousands".

Now, let me be on record in saying that I do not appreciate your hostile tone or your hostile implications on my motives in this thread. Storms at sea and on coasts have been a passion of mine since I was only seven, and I think that I have learned a thing or two about them in that time, and can draw some reasonable inferences from history from that study. If you don't want to know what I have to say, don't read my threads, but if you want to allege that I have some motive other than giving people the benefit of my opinion, you are way, way out of bounds.

[smbolisnch]

177. Then maybe YOU shouldn't be so hostile?

Just a thought. :shrug:

[benburch]

179. I'm just telling you the truth.

You are the ones questioning my motives.

[friesianrider]

183. Okay, I'll try again.

You STILL don't tell me what saying "We're going to lose NO" accomplishes other than getting people in the storm's path all worked up and freaked out.

You didn't post that "wow what a horrible storm, let me show you data that shows it." You didn't post anything other than your absurdly unsubstantiated claims of "tend of thousands dead" and claims the city will be leveled.

I personally don't appreciate people who are such drama queens about disasters such as this. If you were TRULY concerned about people in the storm's way, you'd not have been so rude to me when I simply pointed out this may not be the best way to get the masses to remain calm and level-headed. If you're such an "expert", you'd know that more people die in emergencies from freaking out and losing their heads than from the actual emergency itself. You posts have only encouraged this "freaking out" type of behavior. I'm sorry you cannot seem to understand that - I've tried my best.

[smbolisnch]

184. I never questioned your motives.

When did I do that?

[friesianrider]

181. Uh, your first reply to me was "you don't know what you're talking about"

You were the one who replied to my original message with "you clearly don't know what you're talking about." I suppose that makes *me* the rude one?

CBS radio predicting "thousands" of deaths isn't what YOU said which was "tens of thousands".

You can give your opinion all you want, but telling everyone in NO that they're going to die means you're a drama queen who only wants to create drama. What will save lives, if you are truly so knowledgeable about natural disasters, is encouraging people to STAY CALM...NOT saying "I think we're going to lose NO."

[friesianrider]

182. Allow me to refresh your memory on who has been rude.

You, in response to my original post: "Sad to say, but you don't know what you are talking about."

You again: "I know what a monster this is. You clearly do not."

But *I* am the rude one, huh? Interesting theory, sort of like your "mathematical equation" that shows "tens of thousands" dead.

[Pachamama]

214. If Scaring people got people to get the hell out of NO, then Benburch's

statement about how many possible dead could have saved some lives....

Sorry, but your reaction to his original comment in this thread and constant demands for answers in my opinion are the overblown rhetoric.

I hope Benburch's #'s never come true, but if NO does take a direct hit, or the eye is to the west of NO, then I fear the results are going to be devastating and to be arguing about those numbers is really tragic, because whether it's one person dead, 10, 100, 1000, or 10's of thousands, its awful and tragic, no matter what the number.

Namaste

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

225. If people are going to political chat rooms for news about hurricanes

when they are in the path of one, they may be doomed to the rules of darwinism anyway.

[friesianrider]

169. Care to make a bet on that?

You say "tens of thousands dead."

I will be willing to bet you right here and right now that the number of those killed will be under 10,000.

[benburch]

180. I hope you are correct.

But I am content to see what tomorrow brings.

[friesianrider]

185. So that means you won't back up your ridiculous claim?

My offer stands: I will bet you $25 to a charity of the winner's choice that less than "tens of thousands" will die in this hurricane.

Thankfully, I am hopeful most people won't run around like Chicken Little screaming that the city will be leveled like you...and will remain calm.

Again, my thoughts and prayers are with all living beings in this storm's path.

[benburch]

189. I have nothing to prove.

I am content to let reality show if my predictions were far off or not.

[tom_paine]

211. I don't think anyone with a conscience would want to make that bet

Betting on MORE deaths?

Hell, I don't even like to bet against the Eagles (even at the end of the Rhodes Era when a smart bettor could have cleaned up betting on 'em to lose and fail to cover the spread weekly), let alone betting on increased numbers of deaths of fellow human beings.

As to taking sides in your little spat, please don't assume my revulsion at your offer of this disgusting bet means I necessarily agree with either of you.

We can only wait and see and hope for the best.

But your offer of that bet is disgusting.

[Pachamama]

216. I agree...to bet on the numbers of human lives taken....disgusting n/t

:puke:

[benburch]

231. I felt that way too.

And for the record, I am SO glad I was wrong about where and with what intensity this storm would hit! Had it hit where I expected, things would be much worse now.

[friesianrider]

236. What is disgusting...

Is certain people on DU who think this is some sort of event worthy of them making inflammatory and overly dramatic statements.

Please. The OP is the one making the absurd claim of "tens of thousands" dead, and getting pissy because people think it will be far less than that. I'm not the one crossing my fingers that there's mass death from this hurricane.

[tom_paine]

237. You don't really believe that, do you friesianrider?

That benburch was HOPING for mass death?
Particularly in the face of statements of he made all throughout this thread?

get a grip, dude. ben made a prediction, it turned out to be wrong, and we are ALL happy it was so, OK? Enough.

[friesianrider]

238. Of course.

And btw, I'm not a "dude."

I'm just saying that people on here (particularly the OP) have been going insane the last few days ranting and raving about cities being leveled and mass deaths on a scale triple that of 9/11. I absolutely believe that certain people for some reason "need" to make drama queen statements for the sole purpose of getting people all rialed up...which serves NO purpose at all, in fact it often hurts those who are in those life-or-death situations. I asked him to calm down a little and get a grip, and HE was the one who flipped out and started making insane, psychotic comments that I "have no idea what I'm talking about." It's like I personally burst his bubble when I said nowhere near tens of thousands of people would die.

I am happy it was wrong, too, and I knew it was wrong the second he made the absurd post to begin with. It may have been in poor taste to make a bet, but it was for a charity (Lord knows they need our help now) and I'm certainly not going to lose any sleep over it. :shrug: I just wish people would stop with doomsday predictions over every little thing that happens in our world these days. It's stupid.

[BooScout]

232. How sick....

...To bet on the number of people who may die. Totally disgusting. Your praying for them as you bet on their deaths is unbelievable.

[Lilith Velkor]

234. It has something to prove

Being Right is very important to a typical "ethical vegan." I don't think it's being serious, it is simply trying to bully the OP. It might actually be stupid enough to think a post on a political messageboard will cause mass panic, but I have my doubts. Absolutely fucking disgusting. But believable, unfortunately.

[friesianrider]

239. WTF does my veganism have to do with anything?

Please. It was a bet for a donation for charity, and while in poor taste, isn't something I'm going to go cry about.

The fact that someone got fanatically aggressive and rude because I dared to question his "tens of thousands" dead prediction is what is really fucking disgusting.

Please...leave my personal choices out of whatever posts I make on here. If I were a Christian or a Muslim, would you have made fun of THAT because of what I posted? At least I hope you wouldn't have.

Point is we're all glad benburch's outrageous and unsubstantiated "predictions" were wrong.

[Lilith Velkor]

242. Nothing. "Ethical" rudeness & bullying does.

You have made many posts attempting to smear benburch as someone who takes pleasure in the deaths of others, when all he did was express worry about a very real possibility. You have repeatedly stated your opinion that he is not a nice person, and you do not want him posting on this topic. You seem far less informed on the subject than he, and pointing that out is hardly "fanatically aggressive and rude." I brought up the personal choice because I have noticed that you get upset whenever anyone discusses the other choice. If you were a Christian who jumped into every discussion of Islam asserting that Islam is a bad choice of religion, then of course I would make fun of that. You seem to be deeply insecure, and I hope you get over that someday, for your own sake.

[friesianrider]

244. With all due respect..

You do not know me any more than I know benburch.

I made a point that getting everyone hysterical by making fanatically inflammatory statements like the "city will be leveled" and "tens of thousands" will die was not going to help anyone. It will only get people crazy and upset and if you can't see that, then I can't help you there. It sounds like you've got a personal problem of some sort with me anyway, and are just looking for a reason to start bashing away or whatever it is you're trying to do. JMHO, of course.

I stand 150% behind everything I said then, and don't feel guilty (or deeply insecure) about one word of it. I also don't think you had any right to bring my personal diet choices into this totally unrelated discussion any more than you would my religion, gender, or sexual orientation. I'm sorry you cannot seem to make your point without very personal attacks.

I hope you learn some tact and courtesy yourself, my friend. :) I'm going to stop kicking this ridiculous thread now...it's run its course and been proven to be exactly what I said it was: inflammatory, untrue, and overblown rhetoric.

Most of all, I'm sorry you have such a problem with what I've said (and apparently such a problem with me personally), but I don't regret any of what I said in the least.

[smbolisnch]

245. "It" has something to prove? You are a piece of work.

How rude can one person be? I don't think I have ever noticed a post of yours that wasn't rude.
You pop up in all the anti-veg, anti AR threads to attack veggies, and now you are dragging it into a hurricane thread? You need to focus on more important things in life,LV. :eyes:

[Lilith Velkor]

247. Hi, Jack!

I see your rhetoric has now expanded beyond "F you." That's good, we're making progress :thumbsup:

[friesianrider]

117. Yeah, my thought as well.

I seriously doubt that many will die (at least, God forbid). My sincerest thoughts and prayers are with those in this storm's path and their families and pets.

[MissB]

106. Ben, did you see this link?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4484774

I fear you are right.

[benburch]

108. Yes...

I still hope I am totally full of shit on this one.

[High Plains]

246. You were

Maybe next time you won't be so high and mighty.

[benburch]

110. Katrina "All Time Record Storm"

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

[eauclaireliberal]

115. OK, fuckit-I'll say it...

This is the moment of truth.

Time for several thousand people too poor to evacuate N.O. to find out the REAL compassion the BFEE and the "New South" has for them. Just ask the citizens of Florida how Jebby's been a great help during their hurricanes (sarcasm off).

Actually, it will be their families that find out. Most likely, many will die.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

136. They are all marching into the Dome, and I pray it will hold up.

If it doesn't then it will be a tragedy of epic proportions. If it does hold up (and I don't think it would be used as a shelter if there were doubts) then most of these people will be homeless after the storm.

This is kind of how I read it. If I'm wrong, please let me know.

[Deja Q]

116. What next; earthquake turns Las Vegas into puree-of-currency?

:scared:

[benburch]

119. High tide due around 3:20 AM.

By my calculations this is just as the eye crosses the coast.

[benburch]

122. Pressure is now 908 MB nt

[benburch]

128. 4 PM Advisory just posted

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4485865

[Bo]

133. My family from N.O. is now with me

in Georgia...they are very sad and are saying they may never see home again

[benburch]

137. Storm *may* track west.

Looks like the expected turn to the right is not happening yet.

If it does make landfall 60 miles west of NOLA, this may save many lives over the forecast that has it making landfall due south.

I am hoping.

The storm may be too strong for the normal steering events to effect it.

However, if it does track west, Baton Rouge may be hit very hard.

[benburch]

160. Right turn has indeed started.

How far right is the question now.

[benburch]

142. Pressure is now 903 MB nt

[Rex]

143. I'm worried about the people in the Superdome!

The structure won't stand against 200mph winds! I hope something swerves this monster at the last second.

[ultraist]

146. So am I! Is the superdome safe? What if the roof gets blown off?

How far from the coast is it?

They are reporting that even well built homes may be leveled.

They need to evacuate EVERYONE!

[benburch]

149. They cannot evacuate everyone. Too late now.

The Superdome is likely to be safe, but was designed for 200 mph wind gusts, which it will almost certainly experience. However, tornados accompany storms such as this, and a tornado-driven telephone pole can pierce one yard of steel re-inforced concrete, such as the Superdome roof is made of. It does not, therefore, offer perfect safety, but is also likely to be the safest place in the area.

[Triana]

151. Eghhh - I was just down there last month too!

I love that place, have visited often. God, how sad if it's gone!!
The music there, and the culture that inspires it - all so very rich with an amazing history - gone!

Let's hope and pray this doesn't happen and that somehow the place will be mostly saved.

:scared:
:cry:

[Usrename]

172. FEMA was gutted after Clinton left

Know-nothing cronies are running the whole show.

Shouldn't Dubbya have released oil from the SPR already? This would at least inform the investment community that he understands (not) what is happening.

I'll bet a nickle the DOW drops 1000 tomorrow.

Another nickle says the Mississippi will move west (or east, who the hell knows) at least 20 miles. Once the dikes are breeched, that river has officially left the building.

[Usrename]

174. Oops .. this was for benburch

[Rhiannon12866]

221. Wow! Welcome to DU, Usrename!!!

And I am so pleased to meet someone from your great town in Fla.! My grandmother used to spend her winters there, so I visited her, and have happy memories of NSB! Wow! Although I remember that it was tough to obtain a Christmas tree, it is a lovely place. And we're so glad to have you with us, mistaken post, or not!:hi:

[Usrename]

224. Thank you for a warm welcome

It is beautiful here again, the mangrove having all grown back after those tough winters a few years ago. Unfortunately, the beach is gone, almost completely, from last years hurricanes. All the ramps are still closed (except one at 27th street), so you can't drive down on the beach right now. The beach is coming back though. It takes years to reform the dunes and everything. Much heartbreak right now for folks in the big easy.

[Rhiannon12866]

240. You're most welcome. It's great to have you with us!

I'm glad to hear that New Smyrna Beach is coming back, but it breaks my heart to think of the beach being gone. I just can't imagine. When I stayed with my grandmother, we went to the beach almost everyday. She rented a little cottage, called The Brown Fox, just across the road from the beach. And everyday we'd get up, put a picnic lunch together, and head across the road to the beach. It was a really nice time in my life and some great memories. I also remember the cars on the beach... I can't tell you exactly where this was, since I was a kid, but it was such a beautiful spot. But I'm glad to hear that it's coming back...:-)

And my heart breaks, as well, for the people of NO. Such a lovely and historic city and they're in for some rough times for years to come, if much survives at all.;(

[benburch]

176. This is exactly the sort of storm that changes landforms.

You are totally correct in that judgment!

[tandot]

158. That was my thought, too. When I saw this morning that it turned

into a category 5 hurricane, with 175 mph winds and over 202 mph wind gusts, I feared the worst.

My thoughts and prayers are with ALL of you. For those who had to stay back (poor, sick, no money for gas), I send you special thoughts (and prayers)... I don't know if it will work (I am not very good at praying), but I'll give it my best shot.

Love and Hugs to ALL of you (even those New Orleans Freepers).

:grouphug:

[benburch]

162. Central pressure UP to 904 from 902 recorded earlier. nt

[DIKB]

166. What can we do now that the National

guard is busy overseas in a foreign nation ? Who will handle the disaster relief ?

[ananda]

167. gawd, reality is so cruel..

.. facing it, that is.

Yes, I fear that NOLA is going to be just about down for the count. The entire city will be under so much water, I don't know how they will ever clear it. Over half the buildings will be completely destroyed, and the rest greatly damaged.

This is so painful.... Yes, gas prices will go up, but doesn't that problem rather pale in the face of this human disaster?

Sue

[fearnobush]

168. Gusts to 190 mph. Super Dome 200 max - may be?

However, she will likely gain wind speed and drop again in pressure over night as this is often seen with intense hurricanes.

[JesterCS]

i heard

the superdome has only been tested to 130mph winds

[benburch]

178. Thats all it has experienced so far.

Design limit was 200, and I hope, like all good engineers, the designer put in more than he needed to assure that.

[Pooka Fey]

171. All my life I've wanted to see New Orleans.

Now it may be too late. :cry:

[NVMojo]

186. damn, that was one city I wanted to visit ...those poor people ...

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

190. Just saw NBC update...

...with Brian Williams from the Superdome. He said Katrina has picked up a bit and is only a few hours from making landfall. It looked like quite a few people were packed in there. Given the nightmare that's about to take place, the hurricane should be renamed, "Dubya," and New Orleans should now be called "Democracy."

[swag]

192. Doesn't look good. From one of many articles on the topic-this from 2002

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane_print.html

Do you expect this kind of hurricane—this kind of flooding—will hit New Orleans in our lifetime?

"Well I would say the probability is yes," says Suyahada. "In terms of past experience, we've had three storms that were near misses—that could have done at least something close to this."

Basically, the part of New Orleans that most Americans—most people around the world—think is New Orleans, would disappear.

Suyhayda agrees, "It would, that's right."

[phusion]

193. Where do you all go to get realtime status updates on this?

national hurricane center website or what?

This is really looking bad... :(

[swag]

203. Here ya go

A Mefi thread with streaming TV coverage links

http://www.metafilter.com/mefi/44641

NOAA:

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz069

[swag]

204. Here's an earlier very alarming NOAA dispatch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-
ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-
ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

[phusion]

205. Thanks!

Exactly what I was looking for...

:scared:

[rateyes]

196. I thought I heard earlier that there were 1.2 million

people living in NO, and that 1 million have evacuated. I hope the other 200,000, if this is true, are on VERY HIGH ground. They were talking "worst-case" scenarios, and somebody down there whose job it is to prepare for such disasters said casualties could hit, in such a worst-case scenario (I don't know if that's with 1.2 million staying or just the 200,000) but something like 40,000 casualties. Even best case, then, doesn't sound very good. God, please take care of these folk who have no way out, and will be staying for weeks in the Superdome, and elsewhere.

On edit: They are talking 6 months just to get the water out enough to where people could begin to return to rebuild--a process that could take an additional 4 months. GEEEZ.

[benburch]

197. Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 25 (11 PM EDT)

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 25
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2005

there are conflicting signals regarding the intensity of Katrina.
The NOAA aircraft near 00z reported a peak flight level wind of 155
kt...which would normally correspond to 140 kt at the surface. The
pressure remains extremely low...904 mb at last report. On the
other hand...the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer...or
SFMR...suggested winds were in the 120-130 kt range...and limited
dropsonde data also suggested something a little below 140 kt.
There are enough questions about the performance of the SFMR at
these speeds for ME to stick with the Standard 90 percent
adjustment for now.
There have been some modest changes in the structure of Katrina over
the last several hours. Recent microwave passes show that an outer
eyewall is in the formative stages...and the latest IR images show
a less well-defined eyewall with more evidence of outer banding.
The NOAA hurricane hunters also reported an erosion of the eyewall
in the southwest quadrant. These observations suggest that there
could be some weakening of Katrina prior to landfall. All this is
relative...however...and Katrina is still expected to be of at
least category four intensity when it reaches the coast. An eyewall
replacement at this point is not all good news...as they are
generally accompanied by a broadening of the wind field...so that
even as Katrina weakens there could be an increase in the area that
experiences major hurricane force winds.
There has been no significant change to the track forecast. The
initial motion is 335/9. Katrina is expected to gradually turn
northward into a break in the subtropical ridge associated with a
large mid-latitude cyclone near the Great Lakes. Model guidance
remains tightly clustered...with the NOGAPS shifting just a bit
east of its previous track. While there is great significance for
the city of New Orleans in the details of the track...track
anomolies of 30-50 miles are still possible even 12-18 hours out.
Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/0300z 27.6n 89.4w 140 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 29.2n 89.7w 135 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 31.8n 89.5w 85 kt...inland
36hr VT 30/1200z 34.8n 88.1w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/0000z 37.7n 85.9w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 01/0000z 43.5n 78.5w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 02/0000z 50.0n 70.0w 25 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 03/0000z...absorbed


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.disc.html

[benburch]

198. Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 25 (11 PM EDT)

Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 25
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on August 28, 2005

...Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina continues to approach
the northern Gulf Coast...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from
west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Destin Florida
eastward to Indian Pass Florida...and from Intracoastal City
Louisiana westward to Cameron Louisiana.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 27.6 north...longitude 89.4 west or about 105 miles
south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 170 miles
south-southeast of New Orleans Louisiana.

Katrina is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph...and a
turn to the north is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the
forecast track the center of the hurricane will be very near the
northern Gulf Coast Monday morning. However...conditions are
already deteriorating along portions of the central and
northeastern Gulf Coast...and will continue to worsen through the
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph with higher gusts. Katrina
is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some
fluctuations in strength are likely prior to landfall...and Katrina
is expected to make landfall at either category four or five
intensity. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings
will be significantly stronger than those near ground level.

Katrina remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles. A wind gust to 90 mph was
recently reported from Southwest Pass Louisiana.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 904 mb...26.70 inches. An
Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will be reaching the
center of Katrina very shortly.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide
levels...locally as high as 28 feet...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Some levees in the greater New Orleans area
could be overtopped. Significant storm surge flooding will occur
elsewhere along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches...are possible along the path of Katrina across the Gulf
Coast and the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches
are possible across the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes
region Tuesday and Wednesday.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible this evening over southeastern
Louisiana...southern Mississippi...southern Alabama...and over the
Florida Panhandle tonight.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...27.6 N... 89.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 904 mb.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$

[friesianrider]

199. Just a suggestion...

You can stop kicking your own thread over and over. I'm sure you're just trying to be helpful but if anyone wants updated advisory statements every 15 minutes on Katrina, they can easily look it up themselves.

Just sayin'.

[benburch]

201. If I am bothering you, feel free to hit the thread ignore button.

Thats why Elad put it there.

[friesianrider]

202. You're not bothering me at all.

It was just a suggestion.

[benburch]

200. Real time water guage data site link.

click here

[spuddonna]

213. Holy cow... good link!!

Thanks benburch...

[Endangered Specie]

215. good links, these seem to show that indeed it is hitting at the beginning

of high tide

[geomon666]

206. Local Authorities are now advising everyone to stay put

Do not go out onto the roads. It's now too late to leave.

[fortyfeetunder]

207. This is our "tsunami" disaster.

Granted, the tsunami was a primarily unexpected event. If H. Katrina is as destructive as advertised, fear we are going to see the same level of devastation than what was observed 8 months ago.

I hope the storm is not as dangerous as predicted.

[swag]

208. More joy here

http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/o/nov04/nov04c.html

The Aftermath
In this hypothetical storm scenario, it is estimated that it would take nine weeks to pump the water out of the city, and only then could assessments begin to determine what buildings were habitable or salvageable. Sewer, water, and the extensive forced drainage pumping systems would be damaged. National authorities would be scrambling to build tent cities to house the hundreds of thousands of refugees unable to return to their homes and without other relocation options. In the aftermath of such a disaster, New Orleans would be dramatically different, and likely extremely diminished, from what it is today. Unlike the posthurricane development surges that have occurred in coastal beach communities, the cost of rebuilding the city of New Orleans’ dramatically damaged infrastructure would reduce the likelihood of a similar economic recovery. And, the unique culture of this American original that contributed jazz and so much more to the American culture would be lost.

Accepting the Reality
Should this disaster become a reality, it would undoubtedly be one of the greatest disasters, if not the greatest, to hit the United States, with estimated costs exceeding 100 billion dollars. According to the American Red Cross, such an event could be even more devastating than a major earthquake in California. Survivors would have to endure conditions never before experienced in a North American disaster.

Loss of the coastal marshes that dampened earlier storm surges puts the city at increasing risk to hurricanes. Eighty years of substantial river leveeing has prevented spring flood deposition of new layers of sediment into the marshes, and a similarly lengthy period of marsh excavation activities related to oil and gas exploration and transportation canals for the petrochemical industry have threatened marsh integrity. Sea level rise is expected to further accelerate the loss of these valuable coastal wetlands, the loss of which jeopardizes the fabric of Louisiana communities by threatening the harvesting of natural resources, an integral part of coastal culture. Concerted efforts by state and federal agencies are underway to develop appropriate restoration technologies and adequate funding to implement them.

[geomon666]

209. You also have to keep this in perspective.

We haven't even reached the peek of the tropical storm season. The gulf is far from done.

[Catherine Vincent]

210. I think there are three little tropical depressions forming around

Florida. I saw that today on the weather channel. Yikes!

[AgadorSparticus]

243. This is going to be one deadly season! Katrina is just the first.

The water is still warm and will stay warm. Any storm to hit the gulf now will all explode into monsters like Katrina. Lets hope that they stay in the Atlantic side where the cooler ocean waters will temper them a bit.

[fleabert]

223. I uttered the same words to my dh just a few hours ago.

I hope we are very very wrong.

[benburch]

226. Looks like New Orleans may have dodged the bullet.

The storm turned right far enough that the most intense part of the storm will hit to its East.

However, there is still danger that the storm surge will overtop the levy system. We should know by noon Central time.

[Silverhair]

227. New wind derictions will push the lake towards N.O.

With Katrina going to the East, N.O. will get winds from the North which will push Lack Ponchartrain toward N.O.

I don't have any information on how bad that will be, but it won't help the situation any.

[benburch]

228. All power down in NOLA. Pumping stations stopped. nt

[benburch]

230. Multiple damage reports.

Three breaks in the dikes, including one on the Mississippi R. side of the French Quarter. Multiple building collapses with 911 calls. People trapped and no way for emergency personnel to reach them while the storm rages.

Bad, but nowhere near as bad as if the storm had directly hit NOLA as a category five storm, as seemed likely at this time yesterday.

[benburch]

233. NO emergency management has fielded 622 calls from people trapped. nt

[Catherine Vincent]

248. Lake Ponchartrain levee breached!

:-(

[darkism]

249. No. We're not.

This fear-mongering is ridiculous. This isn't a disaster movie.

There will be flooding. There may be casualties.

But we're not going to lose an entire city. A little common sense here, please.

QUOTE from freisianrider that I find extremely pertinent:

Can we just stay calm about this? Geez, I know I'm safely out of the path and all, but for God's sake can we stop with the doomsday predictions? Yes, it will likely be a terrible storm, but we're doing NO ONE any favors by saying the city will be leveled and everyone's going to die.

People need to stay CALM and safe, not be freaking out and endangering their own lives and others' lives because everyone is telling them the city is about to cease to exist. Everyone in N.O. KNOWS this is a serious, strong storm...let's just calm down a little and send our good vibes, thoughts, and prayers to those in the path.

[artemisia1]

251. We just did. EOM

[donheld]

252. I hope you are right

I'm not so optimistic. Whatever the case it's going to be horribly devastating.

[coffeenap]

250. It seems you were right all along, Ben. I am so sorry. nt