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You and I and everyone else knows that Bill Clinton would have been elected again, against anybody, in 2000 if he hadn't been barred from doing so.
The story is not 4-year swings of a pendulum. Nader's fundamental idiocy is not seeing the greater cycle that is at work.
We are seeing the greater cycle as it passes through its middle, from conservative-leaning majority to liberal-leaning majority. The conservative side fights this change by becoming ever more extreme and more efficient with its smaller numbers and advantages. Conservatives lost their majority in 'the culture'- the overall population- around 1998. They stemmed off losing their majorities in government last November but they know perfectly well that it's only a matter of a competent Democratic leadership that realizes the historical situation of the times before they're gone. The conservatives' hold on the majority of economic power is likely to last another decade or so, that one's safely theirs at the moment.
For proof of the model, watch the Bush Administration at work- they only give lip service to the 'cultural' conservative agenda, they do everything possible to keep majorities in public office and ram things through as if there were no political tomorrow, and every bit of what they do is to bolster the economic power of their side's elite (such as it is). The conservative judges they want appointed are not really about the conservative social agenda- the point is about preserving the hoarded wealth and economic privileges of the Republican upper class folk.
For proof of that larger cycle, compare successive Republican administrations- they became increasingly moderate until 1964, and then become ever more extreme.
My one, only, and decisively serious problem with Dean is that, like Nader, he doesn't appear to see that greater cycle at work either. Nary an indication of a clue from him at this point. The only Democrat running who seems to have a serious clue about this thing and the driving role that Hispanics play in its politics (going from 6% to 14% of the population in under 25 years) is one whose name I won't mention. But he has a serious amount of Hispanic endorsements now, is working hard to get them, and seems to be the only Democratic candidate to be putting in the effort there.
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