how neocons bet money on nukes :
"The survey received wide press coverage. CNN reported that "arms experts say there is a high chance of an attack with a weapons of mass destruction. A new survey out says there's a 70% chance of a WMD attack somewhere in the world within the next 10 years." In a teaser at the beginning of Tucker Carlson's MSNBC show, he said, "Just how vulnerable are we to a nuclear attack? The answer may terrify you" -- though during the show he questioned the report for potentially raising hysteria. Agence France Presse headlined its report, "Survey of weapons experts finds sharp rise in chance of nuclear attack," though there's no clear reference to what the chance of a nuclear attack used to be. Reuters also ran the story, quoting a Lugar aide who said 70% was "a very conservative estimate." (Numbers Guy reader John Pinto saw some of the reports and suggested I write about the Lugar study.)
Other analysts have taken similar approaches. Last August, former Secretary of Defense William Perry told New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof there was a 50% chance of a nuclear terrorist attack by 2010. Mr. Kristof also cited a widely quoted prediction by Graham Allison, a Harvard professor who wrote in his book "Nuclear Terrorism" that there is a greater than 50% chance of a terrorist attack in the next 10 years, barring major mitigating steps. (Mr. Kristof placed a $5 bet with Mr. Allison against those odds, writing, "If I were guessing wildly, I would say a 20% risk over 10 years. In any case, if I lose the bet, then I'll probably be vaporized and won't have much use for money.")"
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB112059629605777656,00.html?mod=2%5F1125%5F1
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
