Is the early hurricane season caused by global warming?

[Chicago Democrat]

This years Hurricane Season is the earliest since 1856. Hurricanes are supposed to be in August I thought. It seems like Hurricanes are getting worse all the time lately.

Is the early Hurricane Season another symptom of global warming?

[shoelace414]

1. in Volcano

they said it takes more than a sunny day to raise the tempature of that much water.

[xultar]

2. Everyone knows there's no such thing as Global Warning!

:sarcasm:

[Unforgiven]

33. And Don't

frickin forget it!!! (sic)

Der Fuhrer sez so.

[Kraklen]

3. Impossible to say.

But I wouldn't be surprised.

[Squatch]

4. Climate is cyclical

[RaleighNCDUer]

5. Nine years ago, Fran (sixth named storm) hit in the first week of

September. Seven years ago, Floyd? (6th) hit in the middle of September. (Only noting these two, as significan impacts on NC).

This year, the first storm hit before the beginning of the official storm season. We're on the 4th named storm in the second week of July. At this rate, the sixth named storm should hit before August.

This season is much earlier than previous years.

[amazona]

23. not the earliest hurricane season, not by a long shot

Hang on. I'll grab some information:

Prior to the emergence of (2003 tropical storm) Ana, no storm has ever occurred during the month of April since records have been taken in the 1800s. Tropical Storms and Hurricanes have occurred in May, December, January, and March, but never in April.

One of these rare storms was in March, 1854 according to the U.S. Coast Survey. This particular storm came ashore near Dauphin Island, west of Mobile Bay, Alabama. Its origins apparently were in the Gulf of Mexico, and it has been referred to as "The Great 1854 Storm."

I personally remember the storm season of 2003, which I had believed to be the longest tropical season ever, from Ana in April to Odette in December. This is the year an oak tree smashed our small house with us in it, ugh. However, the storm of 1854 clearly beats 2003 to the punch. It came in March!


This is a record setting season but not, technically nerdy nit-picking speaking, the earliest season.

[DinahMoeHum]

6. It's nothing unusual, folks. This is hurricane season, after all

from June 1 to November 30. While the prime months tend to be August and September, it is not unusual for storms to occur outside those 2 months.

Link:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G1.html


:shrug:

[theHandpuppet]

11. Oh really?

From weather.com

"Four Atlantic weather systems -- Arlene, Bret, Cindy and Dennis -- reached Tropical Storm status by July 5, the earliest for so many named storms in recorded history. Only three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have hit the U.S. coast in July in the past 100 years. When the maximum sustained winds in Hurricane Dennis peaked at 150 mph this past morning, Dennis officially became the strongest July Atlantic Basin hurricane on record and the strongest Atlantic hurricane this early in hurricane season."

[DinahMoeHum]

12. ". . .by July 5. . .: that's still within the June 1 - November 30 season.

n/t

[theHandpuppet]

16. Is there something about my post you didn't understand?

You stated that it was "normal" for this kind of intensity and activity this early in the hurricane season. It would seem professional meterologists would disagree with you. What is happening is NOT NORMAL; in fact, so far this is a season of historic proportions. Why are you still insisting this is "nothing unusual" even when confronted with the facts?

[DinahMoeHum]

21. Come back to me when the "season" is over, and then we'll

know whether it was an unusual/historic season or not. You can't call it "historic" until ALL of the data are in, and we will NOT have ALL the data until December.

Hurricane season, by its very nature, is notorious for unpredictablity. There's no "reasoning with hurricane season"

BTW, while The Weather Channel is OK if you have cable, they're still more into "infotainment" than information. I'll take NOAA any time.


:shrug:

[theHandpuppet]

27. It's ALREADY historic

I don't need to come back to you in December to point out that this early hurricane season has been the most active in the historical record and possibly the most intense. I'll leave you to whatever agenda you might have for discounting global warming as a possible contributing factor, but the facts about the activity in this early hurricane season -- global warming aside -- simply cannot be discounted.

You can take the noaa site, which is great for bare-bones statistics but not much on extrapolations. Since they rely on government funding to stay afloat it would not serve their interests to point to global warming as a contributing factor, would it. You have to consult European scientists for a more objective opinion.

[amazona]

24. you're talking past each other

2005 is not the earliest start of season, not even in recent memory. 2003 is the earliest start of season in recent times. It started in April. It closed in December. Ana to Odette.

2005 opened in June, which is indeed normal.

To have four named storms this early in the season is indeed unusual and a new record.

So you are both right but you are not talking about the same record.

[DFWdem]

34. Purely anectodal at this point

Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast in August of 1969. This was the most devestating hurricane ever recorded. Category 5, maximum sustained winds of 200 mph, storm surge of 20-30 feet. That was 35 years ago. Even Andrew in 1992, for all the damage it caused, wasn't nearly as powerful as Camille. Also, they're referring to storms that hit the US coast, but they don't mention storms in other seasons that were spawned but drifted into the Atlantic or towards Mexico or South America.

[Birthmark]

7. In the absence of supporting evidence...

...that global warming is causing the early hurricane season, I'll say "no."

[mr blur]

8. Global warming doesn't exist

Bush said so, just before he fell off his tricycle the other day.

[whistle]

9. Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and lasts through...

...October 30. Records show that hurricanes can and have occurred during other months of the year, if conditions are right. As for why we are having more intense and frequent hurricanes, I leave that up to the experts. Here is one link:

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

[bj2110]

10. I fully believe that global warming is impacting our weather, but...

I'm sure it's not the single cause for an early hurricane...

This summer's been a little weird in the gulf, anyway, The Red Tide is caused by escalating water temperatures and causes thousands of dead fish to wash up on beaches along the gulf coast if the currents & winds are just right. Well, it's real bad this year here in Pinellas county, and the water temp is way above normal. Whatever caused this no doubt has had some impact on the formation of hurricanes, and will continue to do so. Global warming may have a hand in it, but it also falls within the margin of historical records for both the Red Tide, water temp, and the timing of a strong hurricane....

[raysr]

13. According to the

Vatican it's probably caused by gays and John Kerry!!

[sojourner]

14. Y'know I don't know enough about hurricane history, trends or patterns.

So there really should be a third option: not sure yet.

Not denying global warming, btw. For me it's the ice cap melting and sea levels rising that make it for sure. Likelihood that all our weather patterns will shift, but I'm not altogether sure that hurricanes have never hit this early before.

[Coexist]

15. the red tide made it all the way up to St. Pete this year

because the water was so warm, I was told. Yech. I thought I left that stuff behind when I moved this far north.

[Logiola]

17. if everyone in america

turned their air conditioners to high and opened the windows we would all be ok.. plus energy companies would be happy

[surrealist]

18. Tony Blair

Last September, BBC broadcast a speech by Tony Blair about global warming. He announced that it would be on the top of his list for the G8 (going on now) and he cited the series of hurricanes in Florida as one example. That made me kind of like him again. I happened to be in Switzerland and heard his speech on the hotel TV.

[amazona]

19. not to my knowledge

My understanding is that while we can lay many ills at the feet of Global Warming, the early hurricane season is not one of them.

They also had some terrible, terrible storms early in the 20th century, and far from global warming, in winter there was at times ice in the Mississippi River at New Orleans. In the 1970s, the public buses used to have little pamphlets with photos of these huge blocks of ice coming down the river in, say, the 1920s.

Some of the biggest storms were in the early part of the 20th century.

I think we don't fully understand the cycles of hurricanes.

[XemaSab]

20. I think it's possible

warmer planet = warmer ocean = more hurricanes.

[amazona]

25. it seems logical but doesn't seem to fit all the data

The mid 1850s were, I thought, very cool compared to the 1990s and the 21st century. However, they had a tropical storm or hurricane hit Mobile Bay in March 1854. (I just looked it up, I don't have all this data at my fingertips.) That is just one puzzle piece but it makes you wonder.

[XemaSab]

26. it's a fact

climate is a big, closed pandora's box that we have just opened.

it remains to be seen what will fly out.

[Feron]

22. I believe in global warming, BUT

attributing every single weather anomaly to it makes enviromentalists look foolish IMHO. As for the hurricane activity this season, there really is no way to be certain if global warming is a major factor.

[JHBowden]

28. C) We don't know yet.

Global warming is about climate change, not weather change.

[frictionlessO]

29. DU WEATHER GROUP!!

sorry to yell... but check it out.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=328

[Jose Diablo]

30. I voted yes because something is making the water warmer

Hurricanes get their energy from the heat of the water. More hurricanes mean the water is warmer with more energy to feed hurricanes.

Why is the water warmer? What else could it be? If the sun is putting-out the same amount of solar energy, then the only explanation that makes sense to me of why the water is warmer would be more heat is being trapped in the atmosphere and less energy is escaping to space as reflected energy.

[Quixote1818]

31. What are the stats on years past?

I know their have been worse seasons in years past and one and a 1/4 bad years in a row does not mean much. It's certainly possible though. I didn't vote because I don't have enough information.

[alarimer]

32. Some years are more active than others

Which may or may not have anything to do with global warming. I did hear a meteorologist say that the water is exceptionally warm in the area of 10-12N latitude between Africa and the Antilles.

[Endangered Specie]

35. From a science standpoint its hard to say for sure, however...

Global Warming ISNT helping (weakining) hurricanes, thats for sure.

[Chicago Democrat]

36. yea, I don't think I want to live down there, I was considering Florida.

But its too crazy.

[Endangered Specie]

37. Yeah, its basically a big target and, up till 2004, it had been

pretty lucky, actually, too damn hot there too, awful traffic.