Global Warming and Hurricanes: #1

[kansasblue]

Ok there is disagreement over whether Global warming will affect hurricanes. I'm on the side that says Florida and the gulf are going to get kicked this year and the reason is G-warming. Exhibit A your honor:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050609/ap_on_re_us/tropical_weather

[ewagner]

1. Can't agree or disagree

at this point.....

remember the gulf stream and other "conveyors" like it are the means by which heat is transferred from the equator to the northern climes.

If those "conveyors" are being affected then the atmosphere has to make up for the difference.....

does that mean more storms?

I dunno yet.....

[rkc3]

2. The key question here is this:

If Florida gets hammered by 4 hurricanes this year, will they get the billions in relief from bush that they received during the run-up to the election?

Remember, bush will veto the TEA if it's over his limit of $284 billion. And isn't this money going to repair the infrastructure and citizens homes?

[Ripley]

3. I agree, but please don't make glee of us getting kicked.

Arlene is headed over the same path Ivan took last year and the coast of Alabama and Florida hasn't even rebuilt since that one.

I live inland and am prepared for flooding, since we have had so much rain recently. I have family directly on the coast in other states. So please don't encourage that red state deserves it shit that was posted last year during the hurricanes.

This seems to be one of the earliest storms of the season that I can recall.

[Warpy]

4. Every hurricane season is different

and there is no way to know which way every storm is going to go in any given season. Last year was just plain weird.

To see how weird, visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml to see the tracks hurricanes have taken in some recent years. They are all over the place.

However, one thing is certain: the warmer the water the hurricane builds over, the stronger the storm will be. As the oceans warm over the next decade or so, any hurricanes taking a southerly track will likely increase in strength from year to year.

The big "if" in all of this is what the Gulf Stream is going to start doing. We know it's slowing down with the tremendous infusion of cold water from the melting polar ice cap. Whether or not its route is pushed to the south according to the models is anyone's guess. That also could greatly affect the development and track a future hurricane would take.

[One_Life_To_Give]

5. # of strikes not GW, Intensity of strikes GW

While yes the butterfly in China will affect the number of storms to hit FL this year. I suspect that neither it nor GW will have a dominating effect on the number of strikes to the Florida coast line this year. 30 years ago the strike rate was higher than it has been in recent years, excluding 2004.
Now if the Sea Surface Temperatures are up across the Intertropical Convergence zone. we can expect he storms that do form to be of higher intensity than would otherwise form.

[pmbryant]

6. Probably not linked to global warming (at least yet)

Science writer Chris Mooney quotes some scientists saying this:

The increase in hurricanes over the last decade has prompted some scientists to cite global warming as the cause -- a theory the authors of the 2005 hurricane forecast do not buy.

"If global warming were the cause of the increase in United States hurricane landfalls in 2004 and the overall increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity of the past ten years (1995-2004), one would expect to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the other storm basins as well (i.e., West Pacific, East Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc.)," the report said. "This has not occurred.

"When tropical cyclones worldwide are summed, there has actually been a slight decrease since 1995."

--Peter

[walkon]

7. As a resident of the Gulf Coast

I can tell you that recovery from Ivan has been slow to non-existent. I have never seen damage remain for more than a couple of months after previous storms and Ivan's is still visible from Mobile, AL to Pensacola, FL. What this indicates to me is that the government has squandered funds that should be used to aid in recovery efforts. I also believe a big effort was made to limit and/or stop completely the reports of loss of life. everything is PR with these guys and there is no substance to anything - except profit for the favored at the expense of everyone else.

I hope this hurricane season will not be a bad one but I fully believe that global warming will produce more and stronger storms over time all but making many areas of the Gulf Coast uninhabitable.