European health sources: World closest to flu pandemic since 1968

[Bluebear]

BRUSSELS April 29 -- Many experts regard a new influenza pandemic as the most significant global public health emergency caused by a naturally occurring pathogen. In 1918 more than 40 million people died in a global flu outbreak. Since then there have been two other pandemic outbreaks, 1957 in South East Asia which resulted in 2 million deaths and a further one million died in the 1968 pandemic.

In 2004-2005, the world moved closer to a future influenza pandemic than it has been at any time since 1968. The key crucial factors to spark off a pandemic are:

* First of all, a novel virus subtype must be transmitted to humans;
* Secondly, the new virus must be able to replicate in humans and cause disease;
* Thirdly, the new virus must be efficiently transmitted from human to human.

The current avian influenza virus, H5N1, met all of these pre-requisites for the start of a pandemic except the final one. The first instance of probable human-to-human transmission was reported in September 2004 in Thailand. Although this event appears to be isolated, experts doubt that this can be the only such case and that others may not have been identified and reported.

http://www.epha.org/a/1798