Nuke Option Compromise???? SAY WHAT??? Relax, It's A TRAP!!!!

[Beetwasher]

Josh Marshall lays it out pretty well:

--snip--

So, to pull this all together, I'm not saying Democrats shouldn't keep up the pressure on their senators. They must. And any deal that doesn't put the nuclear option off the table in a permanent and meaningfully binding way is a joke. But let's remember what this is about. It's about whether the Democrats retain their significant lever of power to block President Bush's most extreme judicial nominees. Democrats give that up, they lose. Republicans give that up, they lose. It's really that simple. A couple judges passed through are a secondary matter. From having watched so far, I get the sense that Sen. Reid sees all those moving parts. So I'm inclined to give him the room for maneuver he needs to back these folks into a ghastly trap.

--snip--

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/

[bryant69]

1. Josh Marshalls pretty good

I think he's pretty dead on. What is the point to all this judge wrangling and nucular/constitutional/crybaby option nonsense? President Bush might get to nominate a Supreme Court Justice (seems likely), and if the Filibuster is gone, he can nominate anybody he wants.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[Roland99]

2. Or the Dems were fooled by McConnell's "We have the votes"

Which I sincerely doubt.

[Zynx]

5. If Republicans had the votes, they would not want to deal

[Roland99]

9. Sure they would. Out of the goodness of their hearts

and a show of compromise and bi-partisanship to the American public.




Oh...wait....I feel something....coming.....up


:puke: :puke:

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. Thank you, thank you, THANK YOU!

This is what I've been getting at all morning.

[Beetwasher]

4. Your Welcome!

;-)

[bpilgrim]

6. what if the reTHUGs put the 'NUCLEAR' option in their pocket till SCOTUS

Supreme Court of the United States

then we lose

how do we get the reTHUGs "put the nuclear option off the table in a permanent and meaningfully binding way" when they are at the helm AND their recent past :shrug:


http://images.globalfreepress.com

peace

[Beetwasher]

7. That's The Whole Questions

and why I doubt Reid is really dealing.

The Repubs don't have the votes for the Nuke option, but Reid looks magnanimous and reasonable by trying to offer a compromise, one he knows they will NOT accept. He also know they don't have the votes. So, the Repubs look like obstructionist pricks to all the reasonable people in the country are left with ONLY the nuke option. If they don't pull the trigger, they lose, because the fundy's go nuts and turn on them, if they pull the trigger they lose because they don't have the votes.

Reid is playing this smart. He knows they won't compromise, Rove has already rejected it. The Repubs look like uncompromising pricks AND they will lose on the Nuke option.

[librechik]

8. exactly

smart move on the part of Reid, IMO, if dangerous. I'm likin' this guy, on the whole.

[Beetwasher]

10. The Trap Has Sprung and Caught The Rat!!!! Frist Says "No Compromise!"

LOL! See LBN for details.

[bpilgrim]

11. ah, they don't have the votes

gotcha, thanks. :toast:

so the reTHUGs eventually have to cave and they will look bad again but i wonder who the rejects are that will get a pass with the compromise when it's finally accepted?

:hi:

peace

[Beetwasher]

12. There's No Reason For The Dems To Accept ANY Of The

judges they are blocking and have already rejected. That's the whole point of Reid's strategy. He's already tried to compromise, they rejected it. The Dems are in the catbird seat w/ this and don't have to accept any of the rejected judges. If the Repubs go nuke, they lose. If they don't go nuke, they lose. Dems don't have to move an inch and can continue to filibuster the rejected judges. Reid's completely outmaneuvered them on this!
:hi:

[PKG]

14. Actually, we don't know if they do or not.

It's doubtful they do, but they've sprung tricks of mass party loyalty before. There are two Republican no votes that we're certain of, and about 10 'maybe no.' Senators. If they can force a vote at a moment in which only three of the maybes vote 'no,' it's a tie and Cheney breaks in favor of the ban.

[PKG]

13. There's no difference if they do it now or do it then.

Either way, it'll be in effect at least until Democrats regain control of the Senate, and will hence be in effect when the time comes to make Supreme Court decisions, whether he does it today or the day before they make Scalia the Chief Justice.

And either way, the federal government is shut down by Democrats, and politics goes to Hell for a month or two.

[Beetwasher]

15. Except They Can't Do It

Frist may try, but he does not have the votes. He's completely fucked himself into a corner and every way out is bad. There's only one way out, and that's getting the votes to pull it off. If he had the votes, we wouldn't be having this conversation because he would have already done it.

What Reid has done by offering a compromise has ALSO solidified the anti-Nuke option votes (including the "reasonable" Repubs), because Reid is acting reasonable and offering compromise which is being rejected out of hand.

[PKG]

16. We *think* he doesn't have the votes.

For all we know, he could be one vote away with five senators "up in the air." about it. Not exactly a situation in which we should declare victory.

[Beetwasher]

17. Nope, He Ain't Got It Or It Would Already Be Done

And Reid's strategy works to firm up anyone who was already against it because Reid is being reasonable by offering compromise.

[PKG]

18. Did you read my post?

In the event I described, he would not have the votes AT THE MOMENT, but could be virtually assured of having the votes within the week.

[Beetwasher]

19. Yes, I Read It and You're Wrong

Frist is even FURTHER away from having the votes now because of Reid's maneuver AND because public sentiment is VERY dead set against this. Anyone who was against before is now even more firmly so.

Read this:

Filibuster Rule Change Opposed

--snip--

"But by a 2 to 1 ratio, the public rejected easing Senate rules in a way that would make it harder for Democratic senators to prevent final action on Bush's nominees."

--snip--

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2004/10/26/AR2005032201677.html

If you don't think that's relevant, then you don't know politics. Reid brilliantly outmaneuvered Frist and there's no way in hell Frist is getting the votes now.

[PKG]

20. "Further away" is simply a meaningless statement

when we don't know how far away he was when he started. Say Reid managed to narrow the field of swing Republicans from 6 to 2, and Frist already had 49 votes lined up. That doesn't mean that Frist's defeated, it just means it might take a little longer.

I personally agree with the common wisdom that Reid's gambit paid off. But I don't agree with simply discounting all other possibilities because one possibility is most likely.

A final note: *When asked*, the public generally rejects the nuclear option. However, that isn't as important as you might think. The question is *how* strongly the public is against this. If this is merely a passing distaste that will be more or less forgotten in a year and a half, there's no electoral downside--moreover, issue polls outright do not matter to republicans with solid seats, and national polls are much less useful than state polls to republicans with contested seats. We simply do not have all the data required to say for *certain* that the plan is dead. And assuming it's dead if it isn't would be a very bad idea.

[Beetwasher]

21. Nope, This is A Meaningless Statement:

"For all we know, he could be one vote away with five senators "up in the air." about it."

For all we know aliens could invade the planet tomorrow. :shrug:

That's as meaningless as it gets.

We absolutely DO know Frist doesn't have the votes or he would have done it already. We absolutely DO know that by a VERY STRONG MARGIN of 2 to 1 the public is against this. It doesn't get much stronger than that, so we DO know how strongly the public is against this and it's VERY strong.

Is anything certain? Of course not, but all signs indicate that indeed, Frist is even further from his goal and Reid has strengthened his position. That's what all the evidence we DO have at this point indicates and what common sense indicates. You're only point is that anything's possible. Well, duh. :shrug: