Watching the market for signs of coming recession....

[whistle]

<snip>
April 18, 2005
As Stocks Slide, Investors Hope for Positive Earnings Reports
By JONATHAN FUERBRINGER

After last week's market plunge - when America's three main stock gauges fell more than 3 percent - Wall Street and unusually nervous individual investors are looking to the flood of earnings reports this week to see how optimistic corporate America is in its outlook for the economy.

Almost a third of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and almost half the 30 companies that make up the Dow Jones industrial average are to report earnings for the first three months of the year. But more importantly, many of them will comment on the financial quarters ahead and could either counter or reinforce the current pessimism about the economy.

Among the big names are Intel, a bellwether for the already struggling technology sector, whose shares fell 5 percent last week, and Caterpillar, a company whose earnings and stock price are hurt when economic growth slows. Its stock plunged nearly 8 percent.

But early earnings warnings from companies like General Motors and Ford have already discouraged investors, and I.B.M.'s surprise earnings shortfall last week was one reason that stocks dropped so sharply. And while earnings growth for the quarter is expected to be respectable, that growth is likely to be well below the pace of last year.

<more>
<link> http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/18/business/18stox.html?th&emc=th

[acmejack]

1. I am very nervous about the market

I fear the ride is starting. I suppose we will know by COB today.

[whistle]

2. Or tomorrow, or the following day, or perhaps only when....

...it has played out!

That's the way the market works. Friday's close of the DOW was down 191 points for the day and about 600 points for the week, but who is actually leaving the market and selling? Or put another way, how do small investors, people with retirement accounts in funds get out of the market to protect themselves for major losses during these corrections? It may not go down by much more, so then is it worth it to move ones investments based on these indexes?

That is panic selling and those of us who have investments for the long term must have the discipline to avoid panic selling and stay the course. It is tough. In five years I hope to retire on a modest plan supplemented with social security. The market declines of 2000 to 2003 took a toll on my private accounts, which have not fully recovered. Now there may be yet another backslide. So I am hopeful that the next five years can bring enough recovery to our economy, that I can retire without a great deal of hardship financially. Otherwise, I may have to seek supplemental income sources, I am still pretty healthy and as long as I have my health and my thinking abilities, I suppose I can support myself with God's help.

As for what is going on at the moment, I suppose it can be compared to the carnival side shows that used to tour the country. It is made up of acts of illusion and chicanery by the organizers and we participants are there to be temporarily entertained and loose ourselves in the illusion to have some relief from the drudgery of reality. The trick is to not become lost and confused as to what is real and what is illusion.

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

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[Dawgs]

4. Agree...

You would think that some here want to see us go back to a recession(just to destroy Bush). I for one, want to see this guy go down, but do we really want to see the economy take a nose dive just to do it.

I'm not saying the economy isn't hurting, but let's please quit wishing for it.

[trotsky]

9. Who's been wishing for it?

I think the mood around here is dread. We *know* that Chimpy's economic road will lead to ruin - supply-side always does - and we want to get off this path ASAP.

[Dawgs]

10. Maybe you, but I have seen many others that gloat about it...

Relax, my comment was not aimed at you. It was aimed at those that sensationize bad news to make Bush look bad. They sometimes distort the facts, and that is not what we(Dems) are about.

[megatherium]

5. The DJIA has fluctuated between 9000 and 11000 for several years

and I expect it will for years to come. The danger might not be a real crash but a slow-motion crash, as happened in the 1970s, when the market stayed between 700 and 1000 for a decade -- during which there was 200% inflation, so that the market actually lost 70% of its real value.

The markets have a history of big increases, one or two decade-long bull markets, followed by one or two decades of bear markets. The last bear market lasted 17 years if memory serves. The market didn't reach its pre-1929 crash highs until 1953.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

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[Toots]

11. One thing the Bush* Administration has proved is History can not be a guid

We can no longer expect things to change just because they did so in the past. History is written daily and people are constantly left shaking their heads. New things are a happening and if you rely on history alone you will rue the day.

[Melynn]

12. This decade reminds me of the 70's.

Stock market stagnant, oil prices up. Crappy job market. The only difference is that inflation isn't as bad as the 70's.

[elehhhhna]

7. Markets' correcting on the knowledge that Soc Sec Privatization is a

Dead Plan Walking. The hopes of a mass cash infusion have died, so valuations will keep dropping. Everyone who anticipated profit-taking once the SS $$ hit the markets are getting out NOW before prices drop further.

[Spencer10]

8. Watching the market...

I've read reports on the market steadily for the past week, and it definitely seems things are going south; however, one of the money gurus was on TV this morning and said if you had $10,000 invested in the market right now, you would have only lost $350 with the 3.5% slide. Are the money gurus underplaying the significance of the downward slide, or are all of us overreacting? Heck if I know.

[MsTryska]

13. it depends on where and how you have it invested....

in my case, my slide has been less than 1% and actually my star-performer of the moment is usually my weakest palyer. yet in the past week it's gained $2 a share, and has increased 15%. (which is mitigating the drops by the usual performers)