Oil Analyst:$100/Barrel in Year or Two-$250/Barrel in 6-9 years

[chlamor]

Oil could gush to $100

by Tom Van Riper

But momentum is gaining for a view that sees rising crude prices as more than a temporary spike due to speculation or terrorism fears. If that's true, New Yorkers can expect to be socked for items from gasoline and heating oil to rent and groceries.

"It <$100 oil> is totally realistic within a year or two," said Stephen Leeb, who tracks oil for his own investment firm.

Analysts see demand pushing oil steadily higher despite OPEC's tinkering with output, which usually has a short-lived impact. That includes yesterday's move by top producer Saudi Arabia, which called on OPEC to boost production by 500,000 barrels, or about 2%, a day.

<snip>

"I don't think $100 is even a big deal," Leeb said. His long-term projection? Try $250 a barrel in six to nine years.

http://www.energybulletin.net/4731.html

[brokensymmetry]

1. He's got a point.

And then there's this...every food calorie we consume requires about 10 calories of oil energy for growing it, preparing it, and transporting it. So the price of oil will decrease the availability of food.

We are talking of a life and death matter. Sadly, few notice and fewer care. That will change...soon, I think.

[chlamor]

2. Eating fossil fuels

Not too many seed savers around.

Seed to Seed by Suzanne Answorth

[Jacobin]

3. In 1999, the president of Shell Oil Company said:

The glut of oil is not likely to change for a decade or more and will probably trade in the range of $12 to 15 per barrel. It had traded in that range for several years prior to his pronouncement.

All that will take for the price to drop is a regional recession, say in China or a worldwide recession, which is becoming more and more likely with the disaster that the U.S. economy is becoming.

I don't know if this guy is right or wrong. Just that predictions have a way of looking silly a few years out.

[KayLaw]

4. On the Today show

A woman in a segment on high oil prices filled her tank for sixty-some dollars, chattering about how it wouldn't hurt our economy and the prices would tail off this summer. . .where do these jokers get their info?

[Strelnikov_]

5. These Prices Are Consistent With DOE Modeling

assumint that mitigation does not begin until the conventional petroleum peak arrives.

[Wright Patman]

6. About 25 percent of the rise

in oil prices since * took office is directly attributable to his destruction of the U.S. currency, which will only gather momentum in coming years. Another 10 percent or so is because of the spectacular failure of the occupation of Iraq to provide stability. Iraq was actually supplying much more oil to the world market under sanctions than it is now.

A fiat currency requires the population using it to exercise at least some degree of fiscal discipline. We have lost that and thus must resort to brute force to demand that other nations continue to use our currency.

It is my view that Cheney will not accept a "free market" solution to the dollar dilemma (or 'conundrum' as Grinchspan calls it) and thus the world as we know it will soon end in nuclear holocaust. Hell, half of *'s base is looking forward to it.