Zogby Poll: Dean takes lead in Iowa-Edwards also gains ground

[CMT]

Howard Dean has moved into the lead in Iowa according to the latest Zogby poll of the state, his first since April.

Dean 23% (Dean had 6% in April)
Gephardt 17% (Gep had 25% in April)
Kerry 11% (Kerry had 13% in April)
Edwards 6% (Edwards was at 4% in April)
Lieberman 4% (Joe had 9% in April)
Kucinich 2% (down from 3% in April)
Mosley Braun, Graham, Clark, and Sharton with 1%

Dean and Edwards are the only candidates in this time to gain ground in the state. I think it is possible that Edwards could move into the top three if his momentum continues and that would be a good place for him going into NH and especially South Carolina.

http;//www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=735

[goobergunch]

1. It looks like Dean could win both Iowa and New Hampshire...

and I think he's nearly unstoppable if he wins both.

[CMT]

3. I agree

but it won't be easy. Gep is going to put his all into the state and he has alot of goodwill in Iowa it will still be a contest. Plus we will have to see how Clark plays out.

[jos]

4. Agree

But Iowa will be much tougher. Gephardt has a lot of experience and resources there.

[HFishbine]

12. True

And nothing against Gep. He's not near the top of my list, but he'd sure be better than Bush. However, Labor, one of his strongholds, is favoring Dean in Iowa:

"Union members favor Dean with 24% of their support, followed by Gephardt (20%), and Kerry (17%).

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=735

[RichV]

2. Lieberman

Sinking like a stone where more than name recognition matters at this point. Surprises me at times how strong he still shows up in national polls.

[Woodstock]

21. The last Zogby national poll had Dean in the lead

so at least Lieberman isn't first anymore.

[caledesi]

25. It's just the name recognition and the repugs want him SO bad.

Wait until the end of this quarter to see what Holy Joe has in his coffer. Remember last quarter? Did he ever say how much he got? I know he was the last one (said they were still counting...right).

He has a small rich base and that's it. I think that after the next quarter...Holy Joe is gone.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

5. Kick for Dean

[RevolutionStartsNow]

6. Again, I wrote a few letters....

Must have helped. :)

Go Dean!

[CMT]

7. yes the letter writing campaigns

in Iowa and NH were a stroke of genius. I'm sure we will be doing more of it.

[HFishbine]

8. Wow

Lieberman drops from 17% in January to 4% today. Are you getting the message Joe? You are going down in flames, are you going to insist on bringing the party down with you?

[CWebster]

10. And he is spewing sour grapes

on his long slide down, grabbing who he can to drag down as well- in his last hurrah.

[caledesi]

26. The problem with Lieberman is that he is running like it's 1992.

Trying to emulate a Clinton campaign. Times have changed Joe, and you are SO last Century.

[HFishbine]

9. Edwards

Interesting that this poll reflects the same Edwards trends as other recent polls -- up. Although his gains are small, Edwards is gaining suppoprt. Graham is the only other candidate who is gaining, but having just hit the 1% mark, his challenge (at least in Iowa) seems Herculian.

Edwards has a long way to go, but there is time. I won't be surprised to see Edwards become a contender.

[CWebster]

11. Too much of a Clinton clone

A change in style would be welcome for those suffering from Clinton exaustion.

[PurityOfEssence]

16. He's got none of the personal baggage of Clinton

Yes, the war vote is a heartbreaker, but I said PERSONAL baggage. There are no allegations of being veracity-challenged or a poon-hound, and his business and career actions have been gone over with the electon microscope of right-wing hate; the guy's clean and decent.

Coming from the working class and from a small southern town, he's definitely going to be in the Clinton category for quick classification, but where Bill is gregarious, John is warm and engaging; where Bill is forceful and publicly focused, John is determined and subtle. The populist characteristics that had so many of us looking to Clinton as a great left hope are all there, but the baggage isn't.

It's also good timing.

[CWebster]

19. He exudes an artificiality-

a middle-class convention that is lackluster. He strikes me at the student council president level of leadership capacity and influence - the assistant principal defines the perimeters. There is something of the junior about his persona that just isn't convincing.

[PurityOfEssence]

28. I couldn't disagree more

He's sincere and engaging. His informality and warmth is very disarming, and if he's lacking gravitas, that is a good thing. Take the last word if you must, but the talking points of him being fake or lightweight do not ring true to me in the least.

[tedoll78]

29. I'm suffering from Southern leadership exhaustion.

Bush (well.. how he acts), Clinton, the GOP leadership.. I'd love a NorthEastern semi-liberal.

[QC]

36. Maybe you can get Dukakis to run again.

[uptohere]

14. He is going according to his original plan

and, knock on wood, it seems to be working.

Go Edwards !

[jos]

17. Keeping an eye on him

He has to hope to finish a respectable fourth in Iowa, and possibly third in New Hampshire. He also should hope that Gephardt loses Iowa, so as to open up the south and the lower midwest for him. February 3 would then be the key for Edwards. If he can win the South Carolina and Oklahoma primaries, he would emerge as the alternative to Dean/Kerry.

To me, he combined the "aw shucks" smile of Carter with the smoothness of Clinton. Not a bad combination, in a normal year. Had there been no 9/11 and Iraq war, he very well could have been the frontrunner. He is someone to watch, and not just for this go around.

[chimpymustgo]

18. Edwards knew his numbers were moving up when he dropped out of

the Senate race.

All the news is good for him. Moved into the top 3 with the service employees' union.

Here we go!

[gully]

13. Wow, amazing!

My jaw drops daily at the success of Dean and his campaign. I keep waiting for the bubble to burst, but it hasn't happened. In spite of all the venom?! It's unbelievable!!!

Dean is beating Gephardt in IOWA?! And look at Lieberman's numbers, man that's surreal?

[CMT]

15. agree

His campaign continues to grow and come on strong.

[caledesi]

27. The bubble ain't gonna burst because

HD's campaign is like nothing we have ever seen before.
Using the Internet from Day 1 was his trump card.
The campaign is so well-planned and his novel approach is peerless.
He will be attacked, but he knows this and this guy shoots from the hip with an Uzi.
I am not worried one bit.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

20. Kerry drops 2%, even after his announcement?

I wonder why? Very surprising. :shrug:

Edwards and Dean the only ones gaining support. Hmmmm.

[calimary]

22. Are those the ones wanting to tell Kerry to "get over it?"

I noticed that decline, too.

[David Zephyr]

33. Yeah, Kerry's Battleship, The Band, The Attention to S. Carolina

and he plummets against the New England "Liberal" Governor in South Carolina.

Howard Dean rocks!

The Democrats have a winner, a slugger, an organizer.

And the activist base loves him!

[StuartStark]

23. I find it difficult to believe anything Zogby puts out.

Even his polls showing Dubya's ratings slipping strike me as a way to push panic-buttons in the conservative base.

[HFishbine]

24. Sure thing

Note to conservatives: Remain calm. The adults will soon be in charge.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

30. Uh huh.

Chimp is loved by all!

[caledesi]

31. Good one HF!

[David Zephyr]

32. The Race Was Over 30 Days Ago.

Dean and Clark have it in the bag. It's now just a matter of how long it takes for reality to set in with the rest.

It's over.

[ISUGRADIA]

34. My Take from Iowa

The best news for any of the low polling candidates is that there was still 32% undecided.

I'd say the poll is good news for Dean, Edwards, and Kerry. Dean has the mo here for now, Kerry has money and good staff as does Edwards so I can see movement up for both.

Gephardt's kind of stalled here. He has union support but he does have a kind of yesterday's news feeling to him. His debate performance may help, but it will be hard for him if he comes in second and maybe fatal if he comes in third.

The low five mentioned...well, at least they have no where to go but up.

Biggest loser by far is Lieberman who was a contender for the top in early polls here. He's spent less time in the state but has spent money here on staff. It's as if he cannot decide if he wants to dump us (a la Gore in 1988) and concentrate on NH and SC.

If I had to bet, I'd go with Dean winning in January with Gep or Kerry in 2nd, Edwards a little farther back followed by Kucinich in single digits.

The 15% threshhold at each caucus I think will hurt the bottom five candidates' chance to have a decent showing.

[Adjoran]

35. several of the changes

For example Kerry, Edwards, Kucinich, Graham all show a change less than the margin of error, so there could really be no movement at all or even in the opposite direction reported. Polls aren't exact.

It has to be discouraging for Gephardt, who has a long-standing organization in the state from previous runs, and is from nearby Missouri. If he doesn't win Iowa, it hurts badly.

But remember that Iowa isn't a primary where you stop by any time and vote. You have to come out on a Monday night in January and sit in a meeting for two hours before the vote is taken. It takes a dedicated supporter to do that. Zogby is good at weeding out unlikely voters in primary polls, but anyone who has ever run in the Iowa caucuses will verify that hundreds of people will promise to be there if you ask them Monday afternoon, but when 7:00 pm CST rolls around they are nowhere to be found.

If Dean wins Iowa and NH, his momentum might be unstoppable. If he takes SC too, you can start hanging the bunting on the platform. Kerry is fading in NH and failed to get much of a bump by announcing in SC. He needs to turn it around in NH fast; a weak showing that close to home would be hard to survive. Lieberman is concentrating on AZ and some other less traditional states, hoping to get a cheap win or two and back-door his way into a two-man race by the first of March.

Gephardt would need at least second in Iowa and first or second in SC to keep going. Edwards won't stay in unless he is at least a competitive second in SC. He and Graham may really want the Veep spot anyway. Kucinich, Mosely-Braun, and Sharpton will stay in as long as they can, but Dennis and Bob need to decide about their seats in Congress pretty soon.

[quaker bill]

37. Iowa

We are still a long way from counting votes.