COLORADO NUMBERS -- Do They Make Sense?

[IdaBriggs]

Colorado People, Please Answer: Did you have a ton of people wanting to vote for Salazar who didn't like Kerry? Do these numbers make "boots on the ground" sense?

Note: These numbers came from cnn's election coverage (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/CO/P/00/index.html), and were drawn to my attention by DUer "apolitical no more" -- Thank you! :)

Bush (R)........1,058,040.....Kerry (D).....944,052
Salazar (D).....1,023,803.....Coors (R).....944,520

[NVMojo]

1. WEIRD!!!

[sandnsea]

2. AND House & Senate seats

I think Colorado Dems took back both the State House & Senate too. It struck me as weird too.

[DinahMoeHum]

14. Ken Salazar's brother, John is also going to Capitol Hill. . .

as a Congressman.

Ken Salazar - US Senate
John Salazar - US Congress


:kick::kick:

[truthpusher]

3. Meeting in Denver tonight:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=142x2688

[mytribe]

4. noting about PA

not in Colorado, but a fair amt of family in PA voted for Spector, however split to Kerry for the presidential ticket. Most I know back home in PA are republican, and did exactly this.
So at least to me, its not too surprising.

[newyawker99]

16. Hi mytribe!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[goddess40]

5. Wide spread fraud even in the bright red states

they wanted to boost *'s numbers so he would get the popular vote as well. No one thought that these states would ever be audited so they ran wild with the ballot box stuffing.

[Jim__]

6. I added all the votes for Senate and Presidential races in Colorado

I get about 9,000 more people voted in the Senate race than in the Presidential race, 2,011,374 to 2,027,240. Got the numbers here

[librechik]

7. Just speculation, but conservative Latinos may have voted for

Salazar/Bush. They are a very large minority in CO, if not edging over to majority at this point, at least in urban areas.

[paulk]

8. Salazar was expected to do better than Kerry in Colorado

This is the second time I've posted on this subject -

Salazar had a lot of support among independents and moderate Republicans, especially on the western slope. Political pundits and pollsters here in Colorado always expected Salazar to do better than Kerry.

Using the Salazar/Coors race as some kind of proof for vote fraud is a no go - and works to discredit legitimate efforts at proving this election was stolen, (and I believe it was).

I would really like this nonsense about the Salazar/Kerry numbers STOPPED NOW. It's an argument based in ignorance about the Colorado electorate, and it actually HURTS efforts to prove fraud.

[IdaBriggs]

9. I disagree with you. Sorry.

I'm the one who did the New Hampshire study, and it appears the same problem could be happening in both places. Please pick your position:

either the polls are usually right including

WI Bush plus 4%
PA Bush plus 5%
OH Bush plus 4%
FL Bush plus 7%
MINN Bush plus 7%
NH Bush plus 15%
NC Bush plus 9%

or the polls could be wrong. ???

The correlation between these numbers is the interesting bit, and it means I want more data. The exact same pattern appears in Florida. My current theory has the "bug" mainly affecting the first race on the ticket....:)

[paulk]

10. you misunderstand

I don't doubt that there was something going on here in Colorado - my own experience this election makes me question how Bush could have won by almost the same percentage as he did in 2000. I've never seen the amount of participation that I saw this year - I had to wait 55 minutes to vote at my precinct, and I've never had to wait more than five in the last 12 years. I've also heard from friends of some pretty obvious voter suppression tactics, specifically in the Five Points area of Denver (majority Black district). Voting places being moved, not enough voting machines, etc.

The State House results are also interesting, with a pickup of eight (?) seats - but you need to look at the districts to get a better idea of what went on there.

The point I'm trying to make is that looking at Salazar/Coors as an angle into vote fraud here in Colorado is a mistake. As I said above - every local pundit and pollster expected Salazar to do better than Kerry - you really can't draw any conclusions between the Senate and presidential races in Colorado.

There are more unaffiliated registered voters in Colorado than registered Democrats. If you combine third party, Democrat, and unaffiliated voters together, it comes to twice as much as the registered Republicans. It's really hard to predict state races based on Republican vs Democrat - and it's impossible to tell who the unaffiliated vote will go for.

It's quite possible that many unaffiliated voters voted for Salazar (a Colorado native, and rural good old boy) and against Kerry (northeastern liberal snob, etc., etc.) Also, many moderate Republicans and unaffiliated voters may have voted for Salazar because of his good environmental record as AG, and against Coors because of Coors brewery's terrible environmental record over the years.

Another poster upthread mentioned the Latino vote as possibly being a split ticket - this could also be a credible scenario for a Bush victory not correlating with the Salazar/Coors race. Especially when you look at the western slope, where Ken Salazar's brother, John, won as a Democrat.

To reiterate - I think you can make a case for vote fraud here in Colorado - I just feel it's a mistake to approach it from the Salazar/Coors race, which can be explained by legitimate (for Colorado) voting patterns.

[eleny]

11. We're working on geting Colroado data

This is going to take time. In some cases it will take weeks. Glenn assigned 20 counties for me to contact. So far, ten emails went out and ten faxes will go out today.

I already received one response and they'll be charging $1.25 per page copied and an additional $1.00 per page if we want the page certified.

As for your initial question - I'm not surprised how the election turned out re: Salazar/Kerry. In fact, in the Colorado forum here at DU, one Coloradoan posted saying that he saw a house with both a Salazar and Bush yard sign. But those Kerry/Coors numbers would have to perk anyone's antenna.

[IdaBriggs]

12. Doesn't need to be certified -- and THANK YOU! :) nt

[eleny]

13. Ida - I'm going to be over my budget for this

I'll do what I can, but there's no way I can afford to purchase the data from 20 counties. I may just be able to cover the county where I live. Will get back with you when the counties let me know their total costs.

[IdaBriggs]

15. Let me know what the cost is -- maybe other DUers will help --

Or we could ask the recount fund to chip in -- not sure about that -- keep me posted! Best, Ida