Battleground States 4pm Exit Polls: Prob Kerry>50%: 99.96% (he got 48.87%)

[TruthIsAll]

In the exit polls for 18 Battleground states taken around 4pm,
Kerry's unweighted average was 50.67% vs Bush 48.20%.

Two (2) states (CO and MO) moved in Kerry's direction in the
final vote (each by 1%).

In four (4) states the exit polls were EXACTLY right.

Twelve (12) states moved in Bush's direction in the final
vote.

Kerry had a  99.96% probability of getting at least 50% of the
vote.
He ended up with 48.87%.

The odds were not with John that night.
Just bad luck, I guess.

Probability of Kerry majority:
=NORMDIST(50.67/(50.67+48.2),0.5,0.0037,TRUE)

		Exit Poll 4pm			Actual Results			
		Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Diff	BushGain
1	AZ	45	55	-10	45	55	-10	0
2	LA	43	57	-14	42	57	-15	1
3	MI	51	48	3	51	48	3	0
4	IA	49	49	0	49	50	-1	1
5	NM	50	48	2	50	50	0	2
6	ME	55	44	11	53	45	8	3
7	NV	48	49	-1	48	51	-3	2
8	AR	45	54	-9	45	54	-9	0
9	MO 	46	54	-8	46	53	-7	-1
10	IL	55	44	11	55	44	11	0
11	WI	52	47	5	50	49	1	4
12	PA	53	46	7	51	49	2	5
13	OH	51	49	2	49	51	-2	4
14	FL	50	49	1	47	52	-5	6
15	MN	54	44	10	51	48	3	7
16	NH	58	41	17	50	49	1	16
17	NC	48	52	-4	43	56	-13	9
18	CO	46	53	-7	46	52	-6	-1
								
average	       50.67	48.20	2.47	48.87	50.20	-1.33	3.80
								
Prob = 99.963%						
assume 3% Moe						
								
n= sample size = 18000						
					
MoE=1.96/(2*sqrt(n))						
Std=.5/sqrt(n)						

MoE	0.0073			
Std	0.0037					

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. Yeah. Bad Luck.

Yeah. Dat's it. Dat's the ticket.

[0007]

2. These are telling facts

[oscar111]

3. so right, 0007{note below}. TA, excellent work

i read this with great interest. Keep up the good work, TA, and

PS thanks 0007 for the earlier compliment weeks back! Made my day! "A kind word is remembered forever".

[sandnsea]

4. We lost 2% of voters

Unless you start comparing this to the vote shift in other states, it's not helpful. In 2000 in CA, Gore & Nader had 58%, Bush 42. This year, Kerry had 55, Bush 44. Many states shifted about 2% to Bush, including AR and IL, for example. If there's no comparison to past voting trends in various counties, and overall shifts in voting, then none of these statistics are useful. And really set us up to continue failing in the future.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Great post

I looked at all 50 states incomparison to 2000, including exit polls. There was a slight trend to Bush this year all over the country other than the northeast and northwest. It looks like the security issue took over, primarily married white women.

[Hello_Kitty]

6. It looks more to me like voter suppression tactics took over. n/t

[sandnsea]

10. Increased Latino population

Which I thought would help Kerry, but doesn't look like it did. Except Latino leaders are saying there's a higher Latino vote in this election than there are registered Latino voters. I imagine they'll be looking at that carefully. But if it is Latino voters, that would likely be immigration and Catholicism. It would also explain why the northwest and northeast didn't shift, I don't think we've had the increases in Latinos like other areas. Another weird thing, small towns like mine went Kerry. I was wondering why, and well duh, the internet. Kind of destroys that hick bible thumper vote theory. Lots of things to take apart in this election, I hope we get it right.

[TruthIsAll]

12. You forgot the upper midwest.

Bush swept the slave states and the bible belt. The Armaggeddon snake handlers, fascists and Jesus freaks. Right, he caught that trend.

Everyhere else the trend was to Kerry.

Facts, facts..

[jfern]

7. It's worse than that

estimate=50.67%
actual=48.87%
error=1.8%
Std dev=0.37%
Z score =1.8%/0.37%=4.86

Probability of this = 6*10^7.
Probability that Kerry does better = 99.99994%

[TruthIsAll]

8. am kick

tia

[TruthIsAll]

9. again

tia

[Nordic]

11. what gets me

is that even with evidence to the contrary, so many people want to believe that we lost.

What the hell is THAT all about?

Why is anyone believing what the media and the republicans are telling us?

I quit believing them completely in the last four years.

They stole this election. It is obvious.

Listen, these guys are foxes in the henhouse. The BBV is one big, fat, juicy hen. To think that these guys would NOT hack the vote is naive and stupid.