The blueing of the West

[MisterP]

In the 70's and 80's, the West was almost part and parcel with the Sunbelt--conservative, Reaganesque, and riddled with fundamentalists. Then it began to change. Oregon and Washington were first to vote blue, going for Dukakis in 1988. They and California voted Democratic in the next three presidential elections. The specialist cities of Las Vegas and Phoenix are growing into suburbian cities--specifically, "blue" suburbian cities.
I sense a trend!

[Ediacara]

1. PLUS

In the next twelve years I see a definate trend of blueing in Nevada, New Mexico (already pretty blue actually), Colorado, and Montana. Not a lot of EVs, but puts a good perspective on where the neocons are all coming from. I'll give you a hint... they're all fighting a war, the rest of the world thought ended 138 years ago.

PS I am not saying all southerners think like that, just the southern neocons can't get over it.

[Brian Sweat]

2. I cannot see Montana going blue anytime soon

but Arizona might be a good candidate. Nevada is already on the verge of going blue and I cannot for the life of me figure out why Colorado is red.

[Ediacara]

9. Montana

May have given the world Marc Racicot, but it's a FAR better candidate at going blue than say, Ohio. The three top elected Republicans won their 2000 terms in very tight races, and the one top elected Democrat won in a landslide. The repub governor is very unpopular and in a meltdown, and if the election were held today would lose in a landslide to a week old ham sandwich. A democrat like Dean could win Montana IF they spent the time to campaign here.

[ButterflyBlood]

13. Gore lost Montana by more than 25 points

although that was mainly because of the gun issue, so Dean probably could win it if he seriously made an effort for it, but I doubt he would for the meager 3 EV. Gore only lost Ohio by 4 points, and he pretty much conceded the state a month before the election.

[Ediacara]

16. Bush got a slight majority in Montana

Nader got a huge total here. Missoula County (SUPER LIEBERAL) went to Bush because the left was split because Gore gave up the state. If Gore had campaigned, he might not have won, but it would have been closer, and the gov, rep, and senate would have been won by dems.

[ButterflyBlood]

17. Nader got 5.9%

a large amount, but not as high as some states. Bush got over 58%, more than a slight majority. In fact it's about equal to what he got in Alaska.

[ButterflyBlood]

11. because the outer parts of Colorado

are dominated by Mormons and fundies. But the worst part is the Colorado Springs area, where the Democrat party is virtually nonexistant. That helps cancel out the heavy Democratic voting of the Denver/Boulder area. But since that area is fast growing, the state's winnable in 2004 and will fall into our column some day.

[LearnedHand]

3. I live in New Mexico...

...(thus the screenname), and it's wonderfully blue here!

[Dob Bole]

6. about the Southern thing...

I know southern Democrats who aren't over the Civil War, but most people are centrist. The neocons that are here came from, or are influenced by neocons from the West. James frickin' Dobson, get out of my country!

[PretzelWarrior]

4. I'd love to get Idaho tilted a little more toward Blue

there's a lot of liberal types gathering around Couerdelane and Boise, etc.

Go for FLorida, NY, California...and the middle America states like Missouri, Wisconsin, etc...we can win this thing.

[LearnedHand]

5. But OMFG...

...how would you ever convince those in Idaho Falls and other SLC-like cities to go blue!

[PretzelWarrior]

7. just do like Oregon. Add lots of west coast libruls to the cities

you'd be surprised how 3 counties help to tip the scales so much toward Democrat in Oregon despite the wishes of all the farmers/rancers over in the less populated countryside.

Just keep bringing people in and gentrifying those play areas and the high tech parts of Boise and you could just possibly imagine swinging it in the next 5 to 10 years.

[Clete]

10. If only.

The trouble with Idaho is with the pioneer stock "independents". They believe all the Republican lies told to them. If only the Democratic candidates could convince them as effectively, they would vote for a Democrat. They can't seem to understand that when you vote for a candidate, or "the man" as they say, they also vote for the party.

[ButterflyBlood]

14. and also

the Mormons. The state is 33% Mormon, so already that's a large chunk of the electorate going GOP. I've heard there are a lot of fundie nutcases there too. I say it's at least another generation until we have a shot at Idaho or Wyoming. Utah is probably a lost cause.

[Clete]

15. I dunno.

I met one or more disgruntled Mormons when I lived in Idaho. I think the church is going to have to change their tune somewhat because a lot of the younger people are more liberal thinking.

[TheBigGuy]

8. We are really talking about the Pacific Slope here...

arnt we.??...the areas to the west of the Pacfic Crest Trail....the Great Basin (except for parts of Nevada) is pretty GOP.

There are some exceptions. New Mexico is sort of special politically.
And parts of Colorado vote Democratic (Denver and some Rocky Mountain areas).

The Mountain West and Great Basin seems pretty GOP, still.

[msmcghee]

12. Actually, west of the Pacific Crest trail is quite liberal.

It is the eastern parts of Washington and Oregon where the ranchers and big irrigated farms are. There's logging over on this side (west) but the majority of the population here live in Seattle, Portland, Bellingham, Eugene, Medford, etc.

I think the coastal cities of N Cal are also liberal like Eureka, Mendocino, etc. Redding though is redd(neck)ing.