Don't Change Horses in the Middle of the Stream

louis c

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Thu Oct-14-04 10:11 PM
Original message

Don't Change Horses in the Middle of the Stream

This is the mantra we here from so many. Then they go on to say that "No incumbent President has lost re-election in time of war". Here are the facts, and a very interesting observation that came to me as I was attempting to sleep.

Every incumbent President has either been forced from office or failed to complete his term in time of war. Amazing, but true.

The election of 1864 (Civil War)- Lincoln is Re-elected, but assassinated just a month after his inauguration to a second term.

The Election of 1900 (Spanish American War)- William McKinley is Re-Elected but assassinated before he can complete his second term.

World War I- The election of 1916 has incumbent President Woodrow Wilson promising to actually keep us out of the Great War in Europe. He was re-elected, but later committed our boys to that war. Even though he was eligible to run in 1920, failing health and his unpopularity left that to the Republicans.

Franklin Roosevelt (WWII)- Franklin Roosevelt ran and won in the election of 1944, during the final days of WWII. In his four years in office, this was his closest contest. Just months after his fourth inauguration, Roosevelt died of natural causes.

The Election of 1952 (The Korean War)- Harry Truman, who was President at the start of the Korean War was still eligible to run for re-election in 1952. Every poll showed that he had no chance of victory, with a popularity of less than 39%. Eisenhower won in a landslide, and the party in power was dumped.

The Election of 1968 (The Viet-Nam War)- Lyndon Johnson, who won the 1964 election in a landslide, couldn't answer the bell after the first round in losing the primary in New Hampshire to an unknown Senator from Minnesota. All observers of that period are convinced that the anti-war candidate, Bobby Kennedy, would have trounced Nixon in that Election had he not been killed. Humphrey, the VP, is defeated because he is associated with that war.

The Election of 1972 (The Viet-Nam War)- Nixon, the incumbent, wins a landslide in a still controversial election. Before his term is half over, both his VP, Agnew, and himself have to resign in disgrace.

The Election of 1980 (The Iran Hostage Crisis)- Maybe I'm stretching it here, this was not a real war. However, the conflict did nothing to prevent Carter from suffering a landslide defeat.

The Election of 1992 (Gulf War I)- George HW Bush suffers a defeat. However, this is another stretch in that that war had ended about a year before that election.

The point is that we have changed horses in time of conflict. In 1945, with Roosevelt's death. In 1952, when Truman chose not to run for re-election. In 1968, when LBJ was forced by the electorate to call it quits. Again in 1974, when Nixon resigned in disgrace.

Some of what transpired is certainly coincidence, others as a result of the war (Lincoln), and still others as a result of popular opinion (Truman, Johnson, Nixon's resignation). But the bottom line is, our Presidents have not fared well as a result of war, contrary to those who seem to claim otherwise.