Death by a thousand October Surprises?

[Brotherjohn]

I'm not really being pessimistic, but I think I see the Republican "October Surprise" strategy: "Death by a Thousand October Surprises".

Everyone has now become cynical enough about this administration that if they pulled Osama out of a box today, it would be too suspicious. But when you control the courts and large swaths of the media, you can control the terms of the debate. That, of course, is what they walways try to do. But seldom is it as blatant as in the following two examples which have come up in the last couple of days.

Instead of this President's dismal jobs record, we're all talking about an anti-Kerry film, and Viet Nam (again). Why? Because Republican-leaning Sinclair Broadcasting decides, now, to announce they are airing the film.

Intead of talking about this President's dismal failure of a foreign policy record, and his misleading us into a disastrous war, we're talking about the Ten Commandments (again). Why? Because the Republican-leaning Supreme Court decides, now, to announce they are going to address the issue.

Unfortunately for them, they don't control the media as tightly as they did right after 9-11 and early in the Iraq War. They tried to scare us into thinking our schools were at risk (remember the CD found in Iraq?). They tried to spin the Duelfer Report to read the exact opposite of what it said (unfortunately for them, they don't control him, either). They tried to spin dismal jobs numbers to say something other than what they say. They can try all they want, but they'll never be able to spin the situation on the ground in Iraq as being anything other than a disaster.

But as they try to down Kerry's candidacy with the "Death of a Thousand October Surprises", REALITY continues to throw a few October Surprises back at them. So in the end, it could be Bush, actually, who suffers the "Death of a Thousand October Surprises".

[molly]

1. The decided are decided - the independents are smarter

than their little immature tactics. They are making themselves look stupid.

[apnu]

2. The problem with the Sinclair business is that it peaked too soon.

Kudos to the L.A. Times (who I believe broke the story in the mainstream) for scooping them way early on this and give people time to bellow and bitch about it further upping the distrust of the current administration and increasing the cynicism towards these 'October Surprises'

Rove and his ilk are probably burning with anger that the cat got out of the bag so early. This thing was supposed to be just enough of a push to take the edge off the fallout from these debates that have been a total disaster for Bushco.

Instead of it being a lightening bolt out of the blue a week before the election, and thereby refocusing the debate from "Should Bush have another term" it would have been "Is Kerry qualified to be President" But all that is in shambles now. Everybody knows its there, everybody knows its bullshit, and they will look like spiteful fools for showing it now.

[Brotherjohn]

5. You're right about voter cynicism, especially after the Swift Boat Vets...

... thing.

While that may have worked in their favor in the short term, in the end, I think it made people a whole lot more skeptical of anything coming out against Kerry. ESPECIALLY regarding the Viet Nam War.

I can't decide whether they wanted the Sinclair thing to get out early to distract from the debates and re-start the whole Kerry Viet Nam thing, or whether they were trying to sneak it in a few days before the campaign, as you say. I don't know how they thought that wouldn't get out. But then, these are people who claim the economy is great and Freedom is on the march in Iraq, so their judgement really isn't all that great.

[apnu]

8. all this has really done

Is distract the nation, well the political junkies that is, into talking about it and not receiving Bush's pre-debate mulligan nonsense that he's been doing for the past 2 days.

I think its hurt Bush more than its helped him, which is what led me to the "cat out of the bad" idea.

[Philostopher]

3. Problem is, this worked on one of my neighbors, apparently.

Someone on my block who's had a Kerry sign in the yard for over a month. When I passed the house yesterday, walking the dog, I noticed the wire frame was empty and assumed some high school kid had happened to think it was ripe for the picking. None of the Dem signs on my street -- just a block south -- had been messed with, though.

When I came home from work last night, I noticed the Kerry sign had been replaced by a Bush yard sign.

Now, I'm really wondering what kind of bizarre thought process has to be going on here -- somebody who's had a Kerry sign for over a month in my neighborhood led me to believe they knew what Kerry was about all along. As hard as Kerry yard signs are to get here -- the county Dem party didn't even buy them, I had to get one from a fellow DUer who had extras -- they did get one, and they had it in their yard for a month.

It's not so much why that baffles me -- it's why now? What on earth could they possibly have heard about Kerry now that would have changed their minds?

I told Mr. Nownow last night, I hate to be paranoid about it but I almost think they were Bushbots all along and only changed their yard sign as a mindf*ck. It's the only logic I can see in it -- it's not like anything new has come out in the past few days.

I don't know -- I'm baffled, and kind of pissed off for no specific reason about it, but it's inexplicable. The tempatation to get a big Post-it note and write, in big, black letters, 'FLIP-FLOP' and stick it on the sign is strong, but it's supposed to rain here for the next several days, so it would be pointless. Maybe I will, once the weather clears.

Just had to get that off my chest, and it's relevant to the subject at hand, and I didn't see the benefit of starting a new thread about it.

[Bandit]

6. I would go knock on their door and ask them

Why not satisfy your curiosity anyway?

[Philostopher]

12. They're almost never home.

They have at least one teenager, and seem to be running all the time -- the thought did occur to me. There are many Catholics in my neighborhood, and they seem to run about 60% Republican here in my part of Ohio, so I'd just assumed if they had any political affiliation they probably were Republicans. In fact, I'm really shocked that when we put up our yard sign, over the weekend, we made six houses on this block of the street with Dem yard signs. Only two Bush* signs on the whole block (though there are three or four on the next block over, a cluster of houses facing each other, and some of their cars have had anti-choice stickers all along, so that's no surprise). And the BushBorg have a campaign office not three blocks from here -- so it's not like their yard signs are hard to get.

[Brotherjohn]

7. Buy some "SelfSeal" laminating pouches, and laminate the "flip-flop" sign.

There are some undecideds out there who are going back and forth, but you're right, it's puzzling. What's so puzzling about it for me is that undecideds generally aren't going to be so committed as to put signs up in their yard as their preferences shift. But ya never know. Some people are just odd (maybe they're "politically bi-polar").

Maybe, on the other hand, they're a Carville-Matalin family, and they're giving each other equal time.

I can't see the Sinclair thing causing anyone to switch to Bush BEFORE the "film" has even aired, though. I can see Bush's attacks on the "nuisance" comment causing a few switches by people (stupid people, that is).

[Philostopher]

13. That thought did occur to me.

"Maybe, on the other hand, they're a Carville-Matalin family, and they're giving each other equal time."

If true, the Kerry fan in the household got a rum deal!

[apnu]

9. could it be possible that someone else placed it there...

... and the owners didn't know it happened?

I used to see that thing go on all the time when I lived in the burbs in the 80's and 90's. Where one party would sneak out and not only steal signs, but replace them. These were the same people who thought that their blocks didn't look patriotic enough on the 4th of July so they would go out and "fork" people's lawns with flags.

[Philostopher]

14. Not very likely, in my neighborhood.

The lots are small, and the houses are fairly close together -- it's sort of an upscale Levittown-style 'burb from the fifties. I think many of our neighbors are Catholic -- and I'm not playing games or being bigoted against Catholics when I say this, we live a few blocks from a very well-respected Catholic high school, and I think lots of the families whose kids attend there prefer our neighborhood ... and many Ohio Catholics are one-issue voters on reproductive choice (or a desire for the lack thereof) and would vote for a Republican if he had horns, as long as he insinuated he'd appoint activist judges who'd try to strike Roe v Wade. Not all, by any means, but more than half the ones I've met in the 36 years I've lived in this state.

What's really funny is most of the people on my street with the Dem signs are nontraditional homeowners, for the 'burbs -- there are two sets of us that are over 30 with no kids and another two of the houses are owned by single men in their 40s. That whole 'scared bunny soccer mom' dynamic is probably what's in play, here, and I'm guessing somehow somebody got to my neighbors a block north with that crap. People seem to like to have the sh*t scared out of them, and then to be told everything will be okay.

[Oak2004]

17. A thought

Perhaps they were influenced by one of the wayward priests telling Catholics they have to vote only on the abortion issue.

If so, they need to see a copy of the Vatican statement that made it abundantly clear that it was okay for Catholics to vote for Kerry.

Does anyone here have a link to the actual statement?

[freedom_to_read]

4. too soon for a real Oct. surprise

if there's going to be one, it'll be after the debates. they don't want to give the public another chance to see JK and Shrub together in an "uncontrolled" environment.

[Brotherjohn]

10. That's an argument for maybe why Sinclair didn't want this out, though.

Note that it was/is to air in late October.

As I post above, you'd wonder how they thought they could get away with it without an uproar being created well before it aired.

But these people don't have the best judgement, and more and more, they tend to think they can get away with anything. They're not used to an opposition who stands up and fights such things. That's relatively new to the Dems, this "rapid response". Plus, it's a relatively new phenomenon that the rest of the media would even cover such a story.

In this way, Bush has really "helped" us pull together.

[freedom_to_read]

11. I sincerely, dearly, clearly hope you're right

... that the Sinclair thing is (or was supposed to be) the Oct surprise. but i've got a little churning feeling in my gut that it's not. If that's all the Bushista's have got, though, it's pretty pathetic.

[Brotherjohn]

15. This is why I think the best thing Kerry did in Debate #2 was this:

To hammer at the point that "all they can do is throw labels around" and "all they can do is try to scare you and bash me", because they can't talk about their record.

Gore did that, to an extent, in 2000. But Kerry really made it a signature of the last debate, and his campaign. And in light of the revelations that the SBVFT ads perhaps were, shall we say, a little loose with the facts, this strategy capitalizes on that new cynicism towards Bush (it also implicitly capitalizes on doubts about the Iraq War and Bush's lost credibility b/c of it).

Now, every time Bush (or his surrogates) attacks Kerry, people say "Gee, Kerry was right. That IS all they do!"

[freedom_to_read]

16. agreed

also, Kerry's characterizing Bush's campaign as a "weapon of mass deception." At first I thought it was little too cute, maybe even making light of a very serious situation, but I think it's sticking.

one thing that makes me hopeful is that the term "October surprise" is out there in the public consciousness. i've seen more than 1 article about it. so people are hopefully becoming a little innoculated against it.