What do you think about this perception of the future ?

[BonjourUSA]

I believe Iraq should be your very next months political nightmare.

Let's imagine the best : Kerry is elected, he will ask the UN help. But the UN couldn't be engaged without a massive withdrawal of the US troops and an Arab or European troops command. Because If Kerry is your president that doesn't mean the erasing of the history and none country could ask to its public opinion to be an US suppletive. One problem, how this engagement will be paid ?

1) Kerry agrees with but refuses to pay for : it will be the end of your influence over this region and the end of your direct control on your oil supplies with a total change of your energy consumption habits. (Perhaps it will be an excellent thing for the world)

2) Kerry agrees with andwith a massive fund participation too : it will be partly the end of your influence over this region, you'd keep a seat into the future negociations and an indirect control on your oil supplies.

3) Kerry refuses : (certainely the situation if Bush is reelected) We (you and us) are into a deep shit and anything is possible. Especially the increasing of the terrorism attacks, the structuration of the Iraqi "resistance" with the impossibility of free elections, the Saudia and the pro-American Egyptian govt downfall, a Persian and Arabic alliance (Thank you Mr Bush, centuries never succeeded to do that)... and the decrease of your financial, economical and military power because a region with 250 million of angry inhabitants is very hard to control with only 150 00 or 500 000 soldiers... Even 1 million.

[Ganja Ninja]

1. Here's a 4th possibility.

If Kerry or Bush wins: We pull out or retreat to a base in the southern tip of Iraq. The Iraqi's then fight a civil war where the Sunni's/Bathists supported by Turkey eventually win. America then controls the flow of oil out of the south. If the new government wants to ship oil from the south and get America out they would have to reach an accommodation with us.

[BonjourUSA]

2. Yes, but perhaps polically difficult

This retreat could be feel as a American defeat. None Iraqi govt will be poweful enough before three or four years and in this context a strategic retreat doesn't exist and you should negociate the UN engagement.

[Ganja Ninja]

3. We can do politically difficult.

Attacking Iraq was politically difficult it didn't stop Bush before. Some of the gulf states would welcome it. We almost have to do it if some of them (Kuwait & Qatar) are to survive.

We don't have the troops to hold on to Iraq for another year. We haven't started a draft so we aren't going to be able to get more any time soon. I doubt that Europe will contribute any troops even if Kerry were elected and offered to pay for them. So it really seems like the only viable option.