IVAN ...updated track....getting closer to New Orleans....

[RedEarth]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W+GIF/131458W.gif





WTNT34 KNHC 131429
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN HEADING TOWARD WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SAND KEY IN THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH WITH A GUST TO 48 MPH
DURING THE PASSAGE OF AN OUTER RAINBAND OF IVAN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.

[Dookus]

1. Ugh

my boyfriend thinks I'm nuts cuz I keep following the track of this and talking about New Orleans. I keep telling him a cat 5 over N.O. will destroy the city, and he thinks I'm just being dramatic.

[amazona]

3. it's scary all right

It seems like every time I check it's further west. My house was taken out by Bill and it was only a tropical storm, I'm not sitting around and waiting for this if it gets much closer.

[markus]

6. You are not nuts

A Cat 5 passing over the city, so that the NE quadrant pushes the Gulf of Mexico into the lake and up the river, could destroy N'wawlins (my home town).

I used to know what the levee heights were for Orleans Parish, and I think they anticipate a Cat 5, but a failure anywhere could flood the city entirely. In fact, it could leave many lift stations flooded and out of operation.

It would be a disaster of the sort probably not seen in this country in a very long time.

If it doesn't start making the big turn as it passes into the Gulf, I'm calling my mom and sister and tell them it's not only time to leave: they need to take anything with them they would miss.

Don't even get my started about Jefferson Parish. I know from my time as a newspaper reporter that many of the "levees" are in reality little more than spoil banks tossed up by developers. There's a big difference between a properly contstructed levee and a big pile of dirt, and the latter is what they had in many places when I left the area in the mid-80s.

That, and the lost of barrier islands and coastal wetlands, are a recipe for a tremendous disaster.

[Blue_Roses]

14. Also, New Orleans is already how many feet below sea level?

8-10 the last I heard. It floods down there when there is a thunderstorm much less something of this magnitude.

[markus]

27. The city can handle 1" of rain 1st hour, then 1/2" an hour thereafter

Which is a hell of a lot more than most other places.

Handle, however, assumes that some very low lying areas will flood. Most of the housing in these areas is elevated on low-piers, anyway, but it is still a problem.

One problem is that many of the main pumping stations in the middle of town are located at low points, using gravity as a collector.

If there were sufficient flooding to innundate these stations, we would have to wait for evaporation, which might take a while.

[markus]

8. The water temsp in the Gulf are still mid-80s

This is still pretty warm (83 and 85 at the two offshore bouys nearest the storm track).

I wonder why they think it will weaken when it enters the gulf?

Any serious meteorologists around who want to 'splain to a budding WX geek?

[ProdigalJunkMail]

12. primary reason is unfavorable winds aloft

at least that is what I heard...

theProdigal

[ewagner]

13. You're right

Higher wind shear in the gulf area right now.......

Also, a few days ago, the water temp in the eastern gulf was cooler because it had been stirred up by Frances....may have warmed back up by now.

Have meteorologist friends who are watching this closely....

[Catherine Vincent]

15. Your boyfriend?

I thought you were a guy!:-)

[nostamj]

20. well, some guys do have boyfriends....

;-)

[Jacobin]

2. That track would be a direct hit on Destin/Ft. Walton Beach

Opal zapped them about twelve years ago.

[Ripley]

32. Opal hit in October 1995.

Nine years ago. My house was close to flooding, but thankfully the water didn't reach the last step up to my front door.

[Wilber_Stool]

4. Ivan is a bad, bad boy.

This is the best pic so far. I've never seen a double eye wall like this.

[Bridget Burke]

18. Thanks for my PC's new Background (formerly Wallpaper)

So strange that something so dangerous can be so beautiful.

[RedEarth]

19. Great picture....where did you find this one

[Wilber_Stool]

24. Here

http://www.noaa.gov/

[Dudley_DUright]

5. I think landfall has actually moved further east

since the 5 AM prediction. Then it was heading straight toward Pensacola (which is where I was until about 2 days ago).

[Emboldened Chimp]

7. Anyone know the water temp in the Gulf?

Wouldn't cooler waters weaken Ivan?

[Endangered Specie]

9. See post 8

[markus]

11. Thee Gulf water temps are higher than those east of Granada

There's no bouy data for the western Carribean on the NWS web site that I can find.

I didn't bookmark the pages (but plan to do so at home tonight as part of my current self improvement plant to become a complete WX geek (offshoot of sailing).

[Endangered Specie]

10. If it did hit NO, the name fits perfectly, Ivan the Terrible...

I find it odd that it has managed to miss directly hitting Jamaica and (probably) Cuba.

[Eloriel]

16. MSNBC just said

that the weather service is getting ready to probably have to issue "Hurricane Watch" warnings from New Orleans to Tampa. That means that there can expect hurricane-force winds within 36 hours.

:shudder:

[spotbird]

17. Camille's path

It looks like the wise thing to do for those in NO is to get out before it becomes impossible.
Camille's path


Ivan's path and forecast

[SoCalDem]

21. Man, oh man.. I said New Orleans last week...

when it started the zig-zag.. That's the worst place it could hit..:cry:

[RedEarth]

22. Pic of computer model forecasts .....New Orleans...??????

[MallRat]

23. I don't know who NOGAPS and BAM are...

... but I sure hope they're wrong. New Orleans is gonna get messed up very, very badly if Ivan follows their prediction.

:-(

[ParanoidPat]

25. HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 46, 5 PM EDT MON SEP 13

000
WTNT34 KNHC 132051
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN NEAR THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
45 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH WITH TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN IN THE PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 912 MB...26.93 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 912 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[SoCalDem]

26. Here's a "picture of the day".. This is a HUGE one..

[nostamj]

28. FOAA 10am 3-day projection... not good for NO

or ANYONE in the path! take care...

[Jacobin]

29. The right side of the storm (east side) is always the worst

because of the counter-clockwise direction of the winds. Mobile will get splattered if it stays on this track---that's Mobile Bay just to the east of the line where it crosses over land.

Every time they do a new prediction, landfall moves to the west.

I hope NOLA doesn't get a direct hit. It is the worst possible place for one to hit.

[Misunderestimator]

30. We're already feeling the winds from it in West Florida

[Wilber_Stool]

31. 09:15 am 09-14-04

[pdx_prog]

33. My youngest sister lives in Belle Chasse

with her Freeper husband (seriously RW military Freeper type). Amidst his usual email rantings I recieved this morning he told me they were heading up to Memphis this morning. I lived in NO for quite some time......a good hit to NO would definitely be devestating.

[Ripley]

34. Aw crap.

That black line goes over my house. This thing is going so slow it's going to be utter hell with flooding.