Righto Hurricane Frances Crew - She's Doing It Again.... Turning Northward

[althecat]

That is slowing down and turning more northerly... according to the GFS model... as the images that follow show....

NOTE THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST IT IS A SINGLE MODEL (A Good un though) THAT HAS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT OPINION THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IN THIS RUN... I.E. THIS COULD BE A ONE OFF RUN... BUT SINCE IT HAS NOW HAPPENED TWICE... you decide... in this series landfall is Daytona Beach.

The series tracks the hurricane from +48 hours to +90 hours

[althecat]

1. A link to last night's thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=2298792&mesg_id=2298792

I suspect this was locked because some folks thought it irresponsible.

[althecat]

2. This is starting to look like an almight screwup....

(I posted in this in the Frances thread about the evacuation screwups... but it is relevant here too...

Just had a look at where the I95 is


If the new forecast I just posted here turns out to be correct.... and it is a possibility, though maybe a bit remote... then the I95 is the last place anyone should be.

Someone needs to pull out all the stops and get these people out of the way of this storm now.

[Eloriel]

3. Earlier this evening my husband said he heard

that I-95 was bumper to bumper from (hmm, where ?????) in FL to GA. We're in GA, as you know. God help these people, no matter where Frances hits I'm thinking.

Good of you to be concerned, Al. :hi:

[Tsiyu]

4. I live in Tennessee and saw quite a few Floridians

on the freeways. I can't imagine those stuck on I95 in this mess.

[Swamp Rat]

5. I wonder if it would be better to try and head South to the Keys or West

to Naples?

Well, I hope everyone in Florida will be alright... and I hope Frances doesn't go into the Gulf and head to New Orleans. I have bad memories of Camille. Fortunately I was an embryo during Betsy.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

6. West to Naples or elsewhere would be much better.

Heard all hotel rooms, etc. are booked up though.

[DoYouEverWonder]

9. No, Naples is still a mess from Charlie

1000's of people are still displaced from that storm, so you will not find a hotel room.

I-75 already had a lot of traffic heading north yesterday. However, I-75 and I-95 are the only major roads out of the state.

Fortunately, people started to evacuate early and the storm is slowing down and weakening, giving folks a little more time.

Traffic is bad now, but by the time the storm hits, most people will probably have made it to wherever the were heading.

[PA Democrat]

15. My brother and his family are headed west to Naples area n/t

[althecat]

7. Latest GFS animation...

And latest NHC discussion

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
COMPLEX RIDGE THAT HAS ONE ANTICYCLONE CENTER EAST OF FRANCES AND
ANOTHER TO THE NORTH. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE
NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGH 72 HR AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER 72 HR...HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER FRANCES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY SOME TURN
TOWARD THE LEFT AND SLOWER MOTION FROM 36-48 HR...THEN FASTER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HR AND AND SOME SPREAD BETWEEN A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND A NORTHWARD TURN THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFS AND GFDL...WHICH SLOW FRANCES TO 4 KT JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FORECAST SLOW
FORWARD SPEED WILL PROLONG THE ADVERSE AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES.


Which, reading between the lines I think means that they don't think that it will slow down as much as GFS indicates at this stage.

[Renew Deal]

16. This lookes like the storm stalls

slightly when it hits land, then turns more north than the latest prediction. A big question will be how long will it sit over water before it strikes. NHC has the speeds going up in the last 24 hours to 140. The western half of the storm has weakened.

[althecat]

8. Latest NGM & ETA animation...

Both of which seem to agree with the slowing down, more northwards hypothesis...

[DoYouEverWonder]

10. Latest NOAH Advisory

WTNT31 KNHC 031140
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH IN ELEUTHERA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
OVER ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS AND ALSO ABOUT 260 MILES...400
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/031140.shtml?


There is some good news here. Since last night, the storm is weakening, rather than strengthening. The eye is no longer well defined and the pressure is rising, which is very good.

This is still a powerful storm, even if it goes down to Catagory 2, but it definitely is not the storm we were fearing yesterday morning.

[RebelOne]

11. On the news this morning it was said that Frances

would strengthen again when it hits the warm water coming from the Gulf.

[althecat]

12. Yes... there is two theories on that...

... either she will or she won't. :)

From the latest discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/030856.shtml?
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC. ON ONE SIDE...THE
HURRICANE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME VERY SPREAD OUT AS THE CENTRAL CORE
WEAKENS...AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT FOR THIS TYPE OF SPREAD OUT
SYSTEM TO RE-CONSOLIDATE. ALSO...SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS
FRANCES. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL JUST
BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE STORM HAS A GOOD CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE AND IS STILL GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE SCENARIO THAT FRANCES WILL GRADUALLY
RE-CONSOLIDATE BEFORE LANDFALL AND RE-GAIN SOME STRENGTH. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT FRANCES DOES NOT RE-INTENSIFY OR
PERHAPS WEAKENS MORE AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

The above scenarios indicate Frances slowing down and that probably makes it more likely she will strengthen as she will spend more time over the warm gulf stream.

[DoYouEverWonder]

13. At least Frances is not a Catagory 4 growing to a 5

which is what it looked like yesterday.

Don't get me wrong, even a Cat 1 sucks.

Also, in the last 3 reports the pressure has risen significantly. That is the number to watch.

[fishnfla]

14. The problems with Frances

Thanks for the information, Al, even though I live in Daytona. I see Al Cantore, who has never been in a hurricane, has left Daytona, so yes it could be (we were all joking here-Cantore the hurricane repellant)

Every hurricane forecaster should preclude and end their forecast with a statement that these storms have a way of their own and there is no predicting their course, they should also tell people not to evacuate unless they are told to do so.

The problem started last Tuesday, when the 5-day forecast, which is a new feature for this year, had landfall in south florida, then daytona,then Jacksonville. It changed 4 times in a 24 hour period. The NWS should discontinue 5 day projections, here's why:

The local weather and news stations pick up the call, and its 24 hour hysteria for a storm that is still 4 days away. People start freaking out because we had just been thru Charley, and they are saying this one will be worse.(They also screwed up the path of charley and people were caught out, but thats another story) So the mob mentality sets in and people who shouldn't be evacuating are gassing up and heading to points beyond(in my workplace and neighborhood--NY, Atlanta,South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, kansas, Texas, etc...)

The problem then becomes: when the local officials make the call for mandatory evacuations, once the storm gets closer and the predictions are more reliable, the roads are clogged and there is no gas.


On Edit: for the record, I was counseling 'wait and see, its too soon to tell all week, and still am. My personal opinion is evacuating presents more potential problems before, during and especially after the storm.....

[althecat]

17. New Satellite Image & Latest GFS prediction

Source
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?A042471824

Meanwhile the latest GFS prediction is bang on top of the NHC forecast path...