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Pickup Opportunities (in order of liklihood)
1)PENNSYLVANIA Incumbent: Rick Santorum Likely Opponent: State Treasurer Barbara Hafer I've never been able to figure out how Santorum got re-elected in a presidential year when Gore won the state. Never mind that now. Every Democrat in PA wants a shot at Santorum, and they're lining up to dop it. If Joe Hoeffel wins in November it will build a great amount of momentum. Even if he doesn't Santorum is toast. Barabara Hafer, a former Republican, looks like a solid nominee, although there are many possible others (Hoeffel, Bob Casey Jr., Lt. Gov Knoll). I almost wonder if Santorum won't run again citing a possible Presidential campaign in 2008.
2)MISSOURI Incumbent: Jim Talent Likely Opponent: Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell or Former Gov. Roger Wilson
Talent isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer; he lost the Governors race to Bob Holden, who wasn't exactly the most popular guy around and he barely beat Jean Carnahan(another awful campaigner) in a Republican year. There are two top tier opponents waiting in the wings for the Democrats: Lt. Governor Maxwell or Former Governor Roger Wilson (who got high marks for taking over after the death of Gov. Mel Carnahan). Either should be able to (at the bare minimum), give Talent a run for his money and would stand a good shot at dethroning him.
3)VIRGINIA Incumbent: George Allen Likely Opponent: Gov. Mark Warner
Virginia has finally arrived as a battleground state, which is largely due to the heavy growth in Democratic friendly Northern Virginia, which helped to elect Gov. Warner to the statehouse in 2001. Warner's popular and mega-wealthy and can outspend Allen in the Old Dominion.
4)ARIZONA Incumbent: Jon Kyl Likely Opponent: Attorney General Terry Goddard
Barry Goldwater wouldn't get elected in today's Arizona, which has slowly changed from BRIGHT BRIGHT RED to a sort of pinkish color. Yes it's still Republican, but Democrats like Gov. Janet Napolitano are starting to win, and the wingnuts like Rick Renzi are starting to lose. Kyl is of the wingnut variety, and former Phoenix mayor and current Attorney General Terry Goddard is strategically positioned to run Kyl out of office and deliver a Democratic Senator from the Grand Canyon State.
ENDANGERED INCUMBENTS
1)MINNESOTA Incumbent: Mark Dayton Likely Challenger: US House Rep.Mark Kennedy
Dayton's a heck of a guy, but tends to keep a lower profile in the Senate. He's frequently lampooned by Republicans for being inarticulate, but he's improved a lot since he was first elected. Minnesota's been trending Republican over the past few cycles, but I'm starting to think that the Repubs may have finally peaked out here.
I don't see any other obvious ones on either side. Except for Hutchinson's seat in Texas or Sarbanes's in Maryland if they retire. I think demographics make Stabenaw and Cantwell's seats fairly safe.
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