Campaignline.com: Dean and Gephardt Tied Frontrunners

[West Coast Democrat]

from Ron Faucheux's Campaignline "Political Oddsmaker":

http://www.campaignline.com/odds/odds.cfm

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION 2004

U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 5 to 1 (16.7% chance; upgraded from 14.3% Aug. 17). Though his campaign lacks fire and lags in fundraising, he could benefit from Dean's rise. If labor leaders and black elected officials get behind him in time, he could become the establishment's "stop Dean" candidate. As such, his chances shouldn't be underestimated because he's in the best position of putting together a nationwide organizational infrastructure (with blacks and labor) to counter Dean's grassroots insurgency. If Gephardt wins Iowa and Dean runs second, and if Dean beats Kerry in New Hampshire, it could become a Gephardt-Dean race.

Gov. Howard Dean (VT), 5 to 1 (16.7% chance; upgraded from 14.3% Aug. 17). Dean has the most grassroots enthusiasm of any candidate, and that counts in democratic primaries and caucuses. His anti-war position has given him substantial national credibility among liberals. However, since the Iraqi victory, some of his statements on foreign affairs and military issues are coming close to marginalizing his candidacy -- possibly putting him into a danger zone not only for the general election but also the nomination battle.

Sen. John Kerry (MA), 6 to 1 (14.3% chance).....more.....

Other Candidates.....

[dave29]

1. Iraqi Victory?

What are they smoking?

[Larkspur]

2. Say what?

...some of his statements on foreign affairs and military issues are coming close to marginalizing his candidacy

Did this guy read Dean's foreign policy statements? They are in line with America's traditional democratic ideals.

[West Coast Democrat]

3. I agree---that's a stupid quote

I'm not sure where this guy is coming from, but he has had Bush's odds slipping over the past year. I recall that he was unable to made a clear prediction for the 2000 Presidential Election, and ended up calling it a toss-up.

[West Coast Democrat]

4. I'm just bumping this because....

I wonder if anyone else is surprised by this, that this site has Gephardt as a frontrunner ahead of Kerry and Lieberman. What do you all think of the reasoning?

[Doomsayer13]

6. Gepharts strength = unions

Unions are the major organizations thatorganize and vote in force during the primaries so Geps union endorsement go a long way in helping him in the primary. However, if he loses Iowa, he's toast.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

5. I'd rather have Gephardt than Dean ANY DAY!

The last thing we need is yet another economic right-winger who will support corporations as they outsource our jobs and promote "free trade" agreements like NAFTA, CAFTA, MAI, etc etc.

Gephardt, for all his faults, has been on our side in Washington for a long time, and has a long and consistent record of voting for the working middle class in America.

[mandyky]

7. This sounds like a conservative media outlet

who knows...

[West Coast Democrat]

8. I have no idea of the guy's politics....

but the site says he has a record of 98% correct picks.

[BrewCrew]

9. I looked this guy up

his politics seem very interesting. he once ran for Mayor of New Oreleans and served in the legislature as a Democrat. I know it's the south, but it sounds like he's at least not a crazy conservative.

also. He does say Gephardt must win Iowa, so at least he has a clause in these odds, but he makes a good point about Gephardt's strength with two core bases within the party. 1) Unions, 12 Int'l unions have already endorsed the guy. Say what you want, but that is pretty impressive. I mean never before in the history of presidential politics have this many individual unions come out for 1 candidate this early in a presidential campaign. 2) African Americans. The Conference of Southern Black Mayors have endorsed him and his populist message seems as if it would sell well.

Hey. what do i know? I'm just a union guy from the midwest

[West Coast Democrat]

11. Perhaps Gephardt/Dean would be a good Ticket....

or Gephardt/Kerry. I actually think Edwards would be good on the ticket.

[acropolis]

10. i could pick right 99% of the time

by picking incumbent representitives and generally whoever is leading the polls.

[West Coast Democrat]

12. Sure, but which polls would you trust?

Various polls come to various conclusions.

[acropolis]

13. I'd lose about half the close ones.

But that isn't a big deal.

Out of 435 rep. elections every two years, there's only a couple dozen competitive ones, and most of those are 60-40 deals where the only question (between different polls) is whether it'll be a landslie or not.

so i'd probably be about 432/435 (on average).

the presidential election only comes every other year, so that would make no significant statistical difference in my % right.

senate elections would kick my ass.

as would governors.

[Bombtrack]

14. More unsubstantiated Edwards dismissal

he puts Leiberman at 7-1 and Edwards at 15-1, despite the fact that Edwards is almost tied with Leiberman within the margin of error for first place in SC, up from 5 percent in the previous poll, and has raised more than twice the money, despite about 2 thirds of Liebermans name recognition at best

and he is also close to the top in every other Feb 3 primary except Delaware(for which I haven't seen any polling yet)

The corporate agenda is clearly to report negatively on his campaign whenever possbile. It has been that way since day 1