For what it's worth Rasmussen has Kerry-Bush race at 47-46

[WI_DEM]

This is the first full poll taken after Kerry's acceptance speech. Yesterday Rasmussen had Kerry up 49-45. Kerry was actually doing better prior to his speech than he was after. But how much faith I put in Rasmussen, I don't know. He was pretty inaccurate in 2000, but I see others post his daily tracking polls so I thought I would check.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[Goldmund]

1. In my perception and experience...

...Rasmussen is biased (he's an avowed Repug), which is fine, since no poll should be taken in absolute terms but only as an indicator of movement. But another thing about Rasmussen is that I really don't have much confidence in his methodology. I think it validly shows movement on a larger scale -- weekly averages or so -- but on a day-to-day basis, it's very erratic and nonsensical.

[MidwestTransplant]

2. each result includes 3 days of polling

For a move like that in one day, Bush had a HUGE day yesterday. Probably because of the terra alert.

[diplomats]

4. That ABC poll coming out tonight

probably includes yesterday as well. We'll have to see what it shows.

[MidwestTransplant]

8. The note indicates it will be big

one way or the other.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Isn't He The Clown Who Had Bush Ahead 49% -40% On Election Day...

NT

[blm]

5. Rasmussen must have gotten the word from Rove. Alter the results, or else.

.

[delhurgo]

6. His poll confirms the Gallup/USA Today results, that

Kerry actually lost ground from the convention. Thats really hard to believe, but now you have two polls saying the same thing. Maybe its the Newsweek poll thats the one thats the aberration? That one had him gaining.

The only thing I can see as being the reason for this happening would be the 'Shove it' remark that came a day before the convention began. I said at the time it looked nasty, but people here pooh, poohed that. You'd be amazed how something seemingly minor like that can turn people off, and it did get alot of coverage.

Thats the only thing I can think of because he gave a very good speech.

[Frodo]

10. It doesn't "confirm" squat!

Rasmussen's poll is simply not scientific. Neither the CNN poll, nor the Rasmussen poll "confirm" a negative bounce.

The totality of what we have seen (so far) indicate very little to no real bounce out of the convention. There isn't evidence that Kerry is actually falling behind.

It looks like things are worse than we anticipated, but it's far from a dangerous situation. If the election were held today, Kerry would win fairly comfortably. A few days after the Republican convention it will look to benefit him.

So?

[displacedtexan]

7. I posted results from several polls...

and an analysis of the CNN crap on my blog:

http://ascrivenerslament.blogspot.com/

[annxburns]

9. Look, Kerry did not get a bounce ....

... because he has already caught Bush and these undecideds are HARDENED undecideds. During 2000, they broke for Gore late. During 2004 all indications are (right track/wrong track) that they will break for Kerry. BUT THEY WILL BREAK LATE. The hardened undecideds do not pay much attention to news or politics. They will sit down in October and make up thier minds. The conventions serve one purpose - unite the party behind the candidate. Kerry was already there so he will not get a bounce. What he did do, which is good, is take those undecideds who are already leaning toward him and nudge them a little closer to him. That is all good.

HARDENED undecideds. Remember that. They are leaning Kerry now. All he has to do is keep them that way until October till he can seal the deal.

Dukakis got a 17 point bounce. Guess what? He lost. Gore got a double digit bounce. He lost. McGovern got no bounce but guess what - he was not in Kerry's position. He was behind and stayed there. Kerry is even with Bush. That is bad news for Bush.

[olddem43]

11. Nationwide polls mean nothing. It's only the States that count.

Go here: http://www.electoral-vote.com/