C-Span showed post convention "bump" numbers...

[slor]

from past conventions since Nixon/Humphrey (not sure which newspaper it was from) but if I saw correctly, in many cases (excluding Clinton's conventions) the winner of the highest or largest post-convention bump LOST the election. Now do not quote me, my c-span reception is awful on the tv I was watching, but that is what I believe I saw.

[GreenArrow]

1. USA Today this morning

read the headline, but not the story. Paraphrasing: "Polls Show Kerry Gets no Bounce from Convention."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm

Doesn't make any sense to me. Kerry should be up by 15-20 points.

[GiovanniC]

4. Up 15 to 20?

Honestly, almost everyone who is going to vote is solidified in their opinion. This election is different from others. People are very strongly for or against either candidate. There aren't many undecideds. When the polls are 47-47, there's only 6% to wiggle around with. Even if you can scrape a few percentage points from your opponent, you still aren't going to get a bounce like what you're talking about.

Also, keep in mind that the Gallup "likely voter" group seems to be heavily tilted right. Furthermore, keep in mind that certain circumstances (like "Fahrenheit 9/11") have convinced people to vote who otherwise wouldn't have voted at all (and would therefore not have been considered a likely voter). I know many people (particularly young people) who fit into this category.

The Rove-wing WANTED expectations to be high, to make a 4- or 5-point jump (what Newsweek is reporting) look disappointing.

[GreenArrow]

8. Given what Bush has done in his four years

it amazes me that 47 percent of the voters are still willing to pull the lever for him. I understand your analysis; I just don't understand how people can be so stupid. I'm not suggesting that Kerry should get a 15-20 percent bounce from the convention; I'm just dissapointed that 65 to 75 percent of this country doesn't want to repudiate the policies and direction of the Bush regime. That this election appears to be this close is not heartening. If this election is really this close, we have bigger problems than a bad president.

I find it hard to believe that anyone who voted for Gore last time will be voting for Bush this time, and conversely, it would seem to me that a lot of conservative and moderate Democrats who jumped ship and voted for Bush last time will vote for Kerry this time. Nader will get less than one percent, I think. Approximately 20 percent of eligible black voters vote; in 2000, Gore got about 90 percent of the black vote. If black voters, most of whom have no reason to vote for Bush, could mobilize to a 30 or 40 percent turnout, Bush would have no chance. The numbers are there, but due to the rightward drift of the party, perhaps black voters don't want to bother. Of course, these potential voters are not included in the polls.

[T Bone]

6. The 2 punk Clear Channel whoring morning DJs here say Bu$h gained

A Clear Channel whorefest on morning radio here are saying that not only was there no bump, but that Bu$h gained 4 points and Kerry, or rather 'horseface' according to them, lost 1 point. Of course these two sound like they are wound up on crank the whole time they are on-air. I am looking for their email, and where exactly do I turn them in for obscenity to the FCC?

[searchingforlight]

2. This is the first time that major networks haven't carried the convention.

Many people watched before because there was nothing else to watch. Now there are many options and people are addicted to the entertainment factor.

The ones who do watch (besides the choir) probably don't watch CSPAN and if they watched the coverage on other networks, their view of what was happening was very skewed.

We must not put too much energy into this. This is a new era of political communication and Howard Dean recognized it early on. We are ahead of the RePugs on this one and that will give us the momentum we need.

[Mr_Spock]

3. I commented here that I thought there weren't many undecideds

and that there would be a minimal bounce - if any. Just because the "media" in order to push their coverage said that this is where people will get to "know" Kerry, doesn't make it so. Most people know where they stand and it has nothing to do with Kerry. It all has to do with hatred of Bush and fundamental ideology. Anybody who thinks this is like elections of the past has not been paying attention or isn't mad enough. I'm pissed - Bush is turning us into a nation of idiots and we need to stop him.

[Maeve]

5. I agree--the media want drama and will manufacture it if it's not there

Don't let the coverage make you crazy--it's how they sell themselves.

[T Bone]

7. kick

:bump: