I disagree with those who post they'd prefer we were a little behind, or

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

perceived that way, in the polls.

Since there IS a sheep like quality to a huge number of voters, there is a "cooperative effect" of being ahead. The more ahead you are, the more ahead you may get, especially running against a weak incumbent. Tsunami (tidal wave).

Many if not most people follow politics only casually unlike those who frequent DU. They have loose affiliations based on family, friends, church, local culture. If they see consistently announced that it's K/E 60 B/C 40, it WILL cause many shrub voters to not vote (why bother), to vote K/E strictly based on herd mentality (if a lot of my friends and neighborhood is doing it I guess it must be OK now, and I was having some doubts anyway), and some to actually question and potentially change their previous reasoning or lack thereof in voting for the shrub.

I would maintain that if K/E were consistently up double digits at this point, it would be virtually impossible for them to lose without massive vote fraud or other events related to terrorism and the war (either fraudulent or real), because of this "cooperative effect".

I think K/E is in a good position, but not a fraud or trick proof one so I still worry, but not a lot. shrubco realizes they are just below the brink of such a tsunami, so they will of course do anything they can to prevent it rolling in the next few weeks.

[salinen]

1. Yes

Being up in the polls is wonderful. If there is a herd mentality, they will want to back a winner. Also, what you mention about vote fraud, and, that it will give the perception that a vote for Kerry is allowed and the fashionable thing to do.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. Being up a lot also is a form of fraud insurance.

1. It makes the shrubco fear to commit the massive fraud necessary to "win" as it would be so obvious, potentially sparking civil war/peasant revolt

2. It makes the fraud more obvious if the outcome has a huge discrepancy from a mass of polls before the vote and exit polling.

[CaTeacher]

3. Being up in the polls helps to keep morale up too.

I think it is best if we are consistantly 5-6 points up. Not so far ahead that there is overconfidence--we want people to know that they have to get out and vote. But-- it is bad to be behind--then we don't have the momentum.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

4. No, I'd like to be up a LOT, like 20 percent, for all the reasons

mentioned above. Then, especially running against an INCUMBENT, it shows that the public has totally repudiated them, and the race is over.