Louisiana: Bush 54% Kerry 38%

[tritsofme]

BATON ROUGE (AP) -- Apparently because of advertising, President George Bush has moved back into a commanding double-digit lead in Louisiana over Democrat John Kerry in a new poll, erasing a last spring's slight uptick in the challenger's standing.

The new poll by Pensacola-based Marketing Research Institute -- based on surveys of 600 Louisiana voters in mid-July -- has good news for Bush in a state that both campaigns had earlier unexpectedly designated a battleground. It shows him with a 16-point, 54 percent to 38 percent lead over Kerry, narrowing only slightly if Democratic Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards and undecided blacks are added in. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

Bush's new standing in Louisiana puts him back where he was in March, when separate surveys showed him 10 to 14 points up on Kerry.

Advertising money poured into the state this spring when the two camps decided on a fight, and pollster Verne Kennedy thinks Bush's ads are the reason for his current upswing.

<snip>
http://www.leesvilledailyleader.com/articles/2004/07/29/news/news5.txt

[dennis4868]

1. Come on Louisiana....

wake up and join the revolution....We all deserve better in the WH!

"HELP IS ON THE WAY."
John Kerry
July 29, 2004

[Moloch]

44. You would think the poorest state in the union wouldn't vote

against it's own interests..... UGH... We progressives in Louisiana have a lot of work to do to get out the vote.

[wtmusic]

2. More evidence: we can't take anything for granted

As inspiring as the DNC was this is no time to slack off. Lots of work to do.

[BayouBengal07]

3. This Louisianaian

Will be voting for Kerry.

But I bet it's a lost cause. You should see the LSU campus. The College Republican Alliance put out purple and gold Bush/Cheney bumper stickers, you see them all over trucks and SUVs, its gross. There are over 1000 people on their email list too. Us College Dems are microscopic.

[kwolf68]

5. I figured

LA isn't a state Im counting on. The Dems are sellouts except for the CBC....well, they'll be on the losing team this year sad to say. But at least the have an NCAA Football Title to cuddle with.

[SodoffBush]

4. Bombard that state's newspapers with fact-filled letters

day in and out.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

6. I bet that poll was taken before Kerry's speech.

[buycitgo]

7. isn't that a very wingnutty outfit?

I think somebody dismissed their work the other day

am I right about that?

Joe Johns on CNN is calling Missouri EVEN!

just saw him say this in rerun of prespeech blabbery

[tritsofme]

17. They got the LA Governor's race pretty good last year

but other than that I don't know much about them.

[The_Casual_Observer]

8. Still fighting the civil war

Forget it. The place is populated with brain boiled neanderthal racists. Spending any time worrying about that sub-state is fruitless.

[Swamp Rat]

12. Yes and no.

I agree about the part - "brain boiled neanderthal racists." Yep. See post 9.

There are a lot of progressive thinkers in New Orleans and if we can get more to register to vote, then this state could - possibly - turn blue.

[PVnRT]

27. Know how many blacks live in Louisiana?

Are they brain-boiled-neanderthal racists too?

[Swamp Rat]

31. Nope.. just the WHITE ones.

edit: in case folks think I'm NOT kidding.

[Syrinx]

so all the white people in Louisiana are racists

Of course, that's not a racist comment. :eyes:

[Swamp Rat]

41. PC police!

ALL white people in Louisiana are racists, like you said, and ALL black people are not... c'mon!

EYES! :eyes: EYES!

[Syrinx]

45. well, that's what you said

Overly-PC attitudes are one of my pet peeves. And it's certainly not anti-pc to accuse white people, even all white people, of racism.

[Swamp Rat]

48. Sorry... I'm just kidding around - A LOT!

Part of it is due to the problem with racism in rural areas (whites against blacks) but here in New Orleans you'll also find the opposite. It is ALL wrong, but my natural inclination is to take the side of the underdog and use humor against those in power. Please take no offense.

:toast:

[Syrinx]

53. sorry

Sorry I didn't get the joke.

:toast:

All is good tonight. :)

[Syrinx]

33. very constructive comment

Pot meet kettle.

[Swamp Rat]

9. We got a lot of knuckle-draggers here in LA, but the main problem

is information and education. Hope is not lost here, but there are a LOT of freepers in the rural areas. The ONLY cure for them is a frontal lobotomy.

I swear, when I drive just outside of Orleans Parish it's like going to another country.

[finecraft]

23. Hey Swamp Rat...come on out to the country!

There are a few of us sane people out here...I'm in New Iberia, there are DU people in Lafayette and Abbeville too! Agreed that the level of "freepness" in my area is frightening at times, but our parish did go for Blanco!

[Swamp Rat]

30. Yeah you right!

I've met a lot of cool folks in Southern LA. When I was younger and in a band, I used to play all over the South (even Buras). I was referring to our Northern cousins, but mostly in jest. I really like New Iberia, but it's been a more than a few years since I've gone down there... when I do, I always eat well! :toast:

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

56. Lafayette is one of my favorite southern cities

[KeepItReal]

10. This poll may be GOP influenced and funded...

Check this out:

"Ed in the comments does the due diligence about this polling outfit - Marketing Research Institute - that I should have done, and warns us that MRI may very well be a GOP operation. Now, I think partisan polling has its place - it just has to be identified as such."

...

"I have no trouble using partisan polling if it's done in an objective manner, but it should be labelled as such and not presented as non-partisan polling. It seems probable that MRI is part of the Republican apparatus, and therefore that its results should be treated carefully."

http://www.swingstateproject.com/2004/06/kerry_narrows_b.html

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

11. DAMN do I have to go over there and kick some Cajun

ASS?

Come on my neighboring Louisianians! Hell that's a lotta vowels!

[Swamp Rat]

19. It's not the Cajuns but the sloping foreheads that live in mid to North LA

You know, the rednecks that 'tawk lyk theeus'. Those are the OTHER people that inhabit this state to the North - NOT Cajuns. I just tell 'em to fuck off and quit having sex with their sister.

Yeah, there are a few David Duke neanderthals that live in Jefferson Parish, but don't forget about all those Kerry supporters in New Orleans.

[King of New Orleans]

13. A pretty meaningless poll

Still see way more Kerry bumper stickers around here than Bush. It will still depend on who the Cajuns decide to vote for.

[lukasahero]

62. "surveys of 600 Louisiana voters"

According to the US census bureau (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/22000.html), there are over 4 million residents in Louisiana. This poll surveyed 600 of them. 600! This poll is useless.

[finecraft]

14. Take it from me-This poll is crap

1. The Poll was paid for in large part by Billy Tauzin (R)
2. Participants in this "Statewide" poll were mostly located in the southeastern part of Louisiana - David "KKK" Duke country
3. Vern Kennedy is a joke - you pay him enough and he'll tell you what you want to hear.
4. They polled mainly rural voters - I don't think they polled anyone in New Orleans, Shreveport or Baton Rouge.

That's not to say that Kerry isn't behind Bush, but I don't think the gap is that large.

[Swamp Rat]

21. By Tauzin??? Yep, then it is utter CRAP!

They polled a buch of Nazis, that's all. I didn't believe this from the beginning.

[finecraft]

25. Yeah, he wanted to use it to boost his son's campaign

Billy III is running for Billy Jr.'s seat. They are waving the results around here that show Billy III has 48%, and the nearest other candidate has 16%. What they don't tell you is that they asked "Would you vote for Billy Tauzin for District 3 Congressman?"...not telling the people they polled that they were asking about Tauzin's son, not Tauzin himself.

[texas1928]

15. 600 voters

And just how many people live in Louisiana?

[tritsofme]

20. That's not bad for a state poll

but it seems from reading some comments the outfit is suspect.

But you can have pretty reliable state polls with a sample size of about 600.

[lukasahero]

63. 4 million plus eom

[lottie244]

16. Will Pitt, you need to get some information to those campuses in LA

They need help. Can we all help out by mailing flyers to students we know there?

[Swamp Rat]

26. I've been doing this for 2 years - passing out Will Pitt articles.

I was so politically active at Tulane that they denied me a scholarship and even TOLD me that was the reason. That's OK, I can still go on campus (so far) and post really mean things about Bush and the college republicans (who openly refer to black people as "niggers" when at the local watering holes). This is the university where Newt Gingrich got his "PhD" back in 69. He's a real hero to all the rich white guys. Most of the "liberal" profs there are FUCKING SELLOUTS! You have to go to the poor, state schools to find REAL humanists.

[LSU_Subversive]

36. Count me in. I'll do what I can.

[progressivebydesign]

18. "Pensacaola based" would that be...... FLORIDA BASED??

Gosh, a polling company based in Florida? Have we even HEARD of half of these polling companies coming out of the woodwork, and more importantly, out of Jeb Bush's corrupt state? It's probably more bullshit.. I wouldnt' worry.

[elperromagico]

22. Look to the north.

Look to Arkansas. Arkansas is our best chance in the Confederate South. I think it's a better chance than Florida, in fact. After all, Arkansas isn't run by a man named Bush, and all statewide offices below lieutenant governor are held by Democrats.

[tritsofme]

24. If we win AR and the 2000 map stays the same,

* still wins in the electoral college 272-266.

That's the only state he could loose though, and we are able to pull off a win in Arkansas, its likely that we pulled with us a whole bunch of other states too.

[elperromagico]

28. I'm simply saying that LA doesn't strike me as much of a swing state.

If Kerry wins big - and he could very well win big if he performs as well in the next several months as he did tonight - Louisiana might turn blue. But I don't get the feeling that we have as much chance there as in Arkansas, Florida, or even Tennessee.

If Kerry wins the Gore states, picks up New Hampshire, wins Arkansas, and wins Tennessee, he will have 281 electoral votes. Even if he lost Tennessee, he would narrowly win, 270-268.

[knight_of_the_star]

35. And AR isn't hte only place we can win

Missouri, West Virginia, Nevada, and Arizona are all looking like some VERY juicy targets for this November. I know that me being in SoCal I'll be working my arse off to get AZ in the blue column. Bush's electoral position is MUCH more precarious than it seems. If we just flip ONE Red State, which won't be impossible by any stretch of the imagination and hold everything we won, which will be easy thanks to Bush, then it won't matter if we lose LA because if we can flip say Arizona and Nevada then those will cancel out those two states and push us ahead by JUST enough. I would prefer something like a 40 point lead on him in the EC, but I'll take victory wherever it can be found.

[fujiyama]

29. There haven't been

many polls done of this state. I'd expect to see the state have narrowed since the convention. I think democrats will be much more energized now. While I do doubt there is much a chance of LA going blue this time, I don't think quite MS or AL.

I'm sure Bush is ahead in this state, but maybe by 10 points or so.

[LSU_Subversive]

32. I know!!! Damn it's lonely down here. We need help!

I'm craving to talk with other like-minded folk. There's a desperately small liberal community out here. Luckily I have my man and a few close friends I can really talk to. But in general, it's careful treading out here.

Don't get me started on the freakin LSU papers. Not even worth your fuckin time. The Reveille tries once in a while, but much to meek. And I guess, compared to the fucking Tiger Weekly, it reads okay. Nothing even close to what you'd expect from a college paper though.

You should have seen the anti-war march and protests. Hardly anyone showed up. The radical right-wing freepers with their harleys were there though (I know not all bikers feel that way, okay). Instructed by a local radio show to attempt to intimidate us, show no less. There's NO doubt that I'm in the South. Don't get me wrong, the South has been good to me. But I'm lucky.

For all the native Louisianians out there who are potentially offended by my criticism, come on! Of course I realize that not all Louisianians are repukes. And, yes, it's probably worse here in Baton Rouge than in other places. But there's no doubt that we're the minority. I'm being honest and we should be pissed. We need to get more people up off their lazy asses. We need to do something more! Get them interested. Asking questions for a change instead of swallowing all the drivel whole. God damn, I'm frustrated. WTF!!!

:grr: :grr: :grr:

[Swamp Rat]

37. I left LSU because of the racism and the "good ol' boy" thing.

Beautiful campus... the rest sucks, especially all the "stupid white men..." knuckle-dragging uncle-fuckers!

See my posts above for more offensive statements about folks in LA.

[LSU_Subversive]

40. Luv the offensive statements. I can relate.

If it weren't for all I've sacrificed so far to get to this point (less than 1 year from my PhD!) I would have given up long ago. The lure of an opportunity to work for one of the greats in my field was what brought me out here. I just wish the rest of my experience would have panned out as I was hoping. Call me naive, but I really didn't think that the South was still so bad.

[Swamp Rat]

43. I left with 1 yr to finish my PhD. I hate that place.

Looks like someone else DOESN'T like my offensive statements (see above). Of course, most of what I say is in jest, but as you know, there is MAJOR racism at LSU. Standing up for my principles has ruined my career at a couple of universities... I don't recommend it unless you are willing to take on a lot of heartache. I'm just starting over after trashing 5 years of PhD work, but I may be able to work on more humanistic projects to my liking.

[KeepItReal]

49. Racism comes with the territory, you just have to rise above it

I went to UNO right down I-10 from y'all and please believe that our University crest has "Louisiana State University System" and they mean it.

I fought tooth and nail to get that degree, and it was that fight (and the beautiful people who helped me along the way) that made me the independent, successful person that I am.

[Swamp Rat]

51. Oh I know UNO well too.

I already have one degree from UNO and have recently returned. I'll take UNO any day over LSU... I had to fight "tooth and nail" at UNO and LSU, so I can relate.

[KeepItReal]

57. Best of luck to ya!

Now at least, you recognize and know the game. Figuring that out is the key to making it.

I can't stand what I went through at UNO, but I'm glad I went there.

[Swamp Rat]

58. What department?

If you are willing to say.

[enki23]

34. knuckledraggers here on LSU campus, far as the eye can see

knuckledraggers in spirit, in some cases, as their extensive and exclusive breeding has left them entirely devoid of such plebian and unnecessary features as "knuckles."

well, that's for the upscale trash. the downscale trash lives where i live. they *actually* drag their knuckles. i've seen it. i'll show you the knuckle tracks.

[stavka]

38. my "brother in-law" is finishing up his second Master's at LSU

From what he says, he couldn't agree more.......

Good BBQ though...we'll be there post election for his graduation.

[Swamp Rat]

39. I lived a couple of blocks from the N. Highland intrance (Chimes area)

Fortunately I lived with foreign students... most of rest of the student population are KKK. I am sooo glad I moved back to New Orleans. From my experience, LSU is THE university for budding professional racists.

[LSU_Subversive]

42. Hey, I live on State St.!

Small world right. On a more serious note, though, I've HAD IT with these right-wing, golf-playing, wanna-be freepers.

OK, I'm going to stop posting these meaningless little ranting bits. Thanks for letting me vent.

[Swamp Rat]

47. I lived on State St. too (2001)

but I'm back home in New Orleans... and it feels good. One of these days all us LA DUers should get together. Why not come down here for a Kerry meet-up someday? Go to the LA State thread and look for funkybutt's updates.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

46. I figured there was a reason shrubya chose LSU commencement to speak at.

[Swamp Rat]

50. I went to a wedding right in front of the LSU lake right after Bush's*

visit. The host of the wedding actually had a GIANT painting of Bush* in the living room. He is an rich, old crotchety fart that bragged about his ties to the Nazi party (GOP) and friendship with Satan (Bush). Since I was a guest I didn't make a scene, but I WANTED to.

[nolajazz]

54. LSU was ranked No.1 party school in 2000 by Princton Review.

And made national headlines last week when a 20-year-old student died after consuming about 25 drinks in one hour a couple of years ago.

[enki23]

60. i only came here to be with my girlfriend

and so, it was still worth it. it's a shithole freeper university, but it was still worth it. and hell, there are some good people here too. you just have to look really, really hard to find them.

[BayouBengal07]

55. Yeah.

I'm glad I live in New Orleans. Seems if you go 5 miles in any direction outside the city, everyone tries to out-Conservative everyone else.

Being from New Orleans, every mayoral candidate is a Democrat, but I was up at LSU during the governors election, where every advertisement for political office was about who stood up stronger for "our family values". Kind of a culture shock.

[Yavin4]

52. A Sample Size of 600

for a state as large as Louisiana makes this a bogus poll.

[enki23]

59. that's not necessarily true.

it could be a very accurate poll, provided no sampling error. but i've little doubt there was plenty of sampling... "error." this is a partisan poll, designed to play the bandwagon effect to the hilt. that's all it is. louisiana will probably go republican, and i've little doubt they *are* in the lead. but i doubt the lead is *that* big.

[The Flaming Red Head]

61. EMT convention in town with majority from Louisiana and lots of W stickers

and they all had W in 04 stickers. It's more than advertising money, it's got a whole lot to do with homeland defense contracts and Federal money being poured into that state.

[mac56]

64. Even with all the snarky comments about French speakers?

That's very strange.

[BayouBengal07]

66. You have no idea...

Former Louisiana Governor Mike Foster apparently asked Jacques Chriac not to appear at the ceremony commemorating the 200th Anniversary of the Louisiana Purchase in New Orleans.

[Tweed]

65. Did Kerry have to push money into a state like Vermont? No, this is sad..

but okay. I'm glad that Bush had to spend so much money on adveritising in this state, a state that they figured was a lock. His ads are misleading and if more lies start to be debunked, LA might be swayed again.

[ImpeachBush2004]

67. I'm in Louisiana

Most likely we'll go for Kerry because we went for Clinton twice and we just elected a democratic governor and senator. I'm doing all I can to make sure the people that I know go out and cast their vote for Kerry!!

[ImpeachBush2004]

68. I'm in Louisiana

Most likely we'll go for Kerry because we went for Clinton twice and we just elected a democratic governor and senator. I'm doing all I can to make sure the people that I know go out and cast their vote for Kerry!!