someone refresh my memory about the 1996 election...

[drumwolf]

Clinton was just as hated by the Right in 1996 as Chimpy is by our side today. So I have some questions to anyone who remembers the 1996 election better than I do. Basically, what parallels and differences are there between the 1996 election and this one?

First of all, was Bob Dole EVER considered a strong candidate or an even halfway decent one against Clinton? And is Kerry doing better right now than Dole was at the same point in the '96 election?

And second, did conservatives have felt the same urgency to oust Clinton that we feel towards Bush today? Were they as united as we are now?

[xxqqqzme]

1. dole was never considered a strong

candidate. The only reason he got the nod is Bcause he threw a fit and said but u promised, '96 was my turn. The rethugs knew he wouldn't B elected.

[NWHarkness]

2. I don't recall anyone ever thinking Dole had a shot

The conservatives may have hated Clinton, but they were tepid about Dole.

[joanne]

4. I agree, from what I remember

it was Clinton's to lose.

[JDPriestly]

3. Bob Dole was a war hero,

but he had no charisma. Clinton had the charisma and could boast about the progress the nation had made under his leadership. This time, even if Bush had genuine charisma, he has done nothing. The nation has made no progress under his misleadership.

[Rowdyboy]

5. Clinton started aggressively advertising long in advance of the convention

The Republicans basically gave it to Dole because it was "his turn". I don't remember him ever getting very close in the polls-he usually trailed by 12-15 points if memory serves. Kerry is doing much better at this point.

Republicans entered their primaries pretty convinced that they had Clinton beaten already. The spanking he took in 1994 when they took congress convinced them that we had a conservative revolution underway. I don't think they felt as much urgency because they really didn't think they had much to worry about-Clinton was toast.

I listened to Limbaugh to get their take that year and by summer they were really down in spirits. By their convention, I think they had pretty much conceded it wasn't going to happen.

[NWHarkness]

9. The GOP victory in 94 helped Clinton

Gingrich and his gang of extremists scared the crap[ out of people. The independent voters flocked to Clinton as a safeguard against them.

[nyhuskyfan]

6. They had nothing to run on

The economy was great, crime was down, welfare rolls were down, it was a peaceful four years, FMLA was passed, Americorps was passed, and on and on. The country was in much better shape than when he inherited it. It wasn't close. And the economy had done well in spite of Repug insistence that the Clinton economic plan spelled doom (it passed in 1993 without one Rep. vote).

There was only one negative statistic on any economic or social issue in the entire country -- a study in 1996 showed that teenage drug use was slightly up, so they ran with that a little, but it didn't really have any legs.

[Warpy]

7. Actually, Clinton had pretty high approval ratings in 1996

and maintained them through the impeachment fiasco two years later. The rabid right were relentless in their attacks, and were largely marginalized by the majority, but were the majority in the House, thanks to the "throw the bums out" movement in the 1994 midterm election.

Dole wasn't a bad guy, but was an incredibly stiff campaigner who was getting the same rotten advice that Gore got in 2000. Plus, he looked like the mnean old man down the street who always crabs at you to get the hell off his lawn. In many ways, he was the sacrificial lamb for the moderates in the GOP that Mondale had been in 1984 for the liberals in the Democratic Party. There's nothing like having a candidate soundly defeated by a popular incumbent to discredit that wing of the party.

Kerry is doing much better than Dole was doing. For one thing, Bush doesn't have high approval ratings and his support is softening even within his own party. For another, Kerry is much more mainstream in his own party than Dole was in the GOP, which had been lurching more and more to the right, thanks to the Evangelical voting bloc.

So you see, the similarities are only that Dole and Kerry are trying to unseat an incumbent. That's where they begin and end.

[fujiyama]

8. Dole never led in the polls

Clinton gave his '96 State of the Union and he didn't trail after it.

Kerry's in good shape for a challenger. I hope he does a great job with the speech tomorrow. The main problem is the media has been putting an insane amount of pressure on him and the cable news networks are unwatchable in towing the republican party line.

I've stuck to mostly C Span. The coverage has been great - no talking heads, just full uninterupted coverage.

[DieboldMustDie]

10. Dole wasn't far enough right for the wing-nut base.

:shrug:

[69KV]

11. 1996

The Repuke base was really fired up in 1994, but in 1996 they were on the defensive. The Newt Gingrinch freshman class really alienated a lot of people with their antics in Congress. I remember the federal govt. shutting down more than once because the Repukes wouldn't compromise on appropriations budgets. Then there was Timothy McVeigh, who singlehandedly alienated a lot of people from the wingnut constituency the Repukes had attracted, once they saw where it could lead.

Clinton was hated by the right but he was very popular with the mainstream. He was sure to be re-elected. I don't see the same thing with Bush this year. Too much of the mainstream is pissed off at him.