Change in electoral votes because of 2000 Census

[zoidberg]

http://www.presidentelect.org/art_newev.html

Another poster asked for the exact changes that occured because of the 2000 census. Here they are. State Bush won had a gain of 7 votes. States Gore won had a loss of 7 votes. Even if you give Florida to Gore, that's still a ten point swing in Bush's favor because of the Census. So to answer the question: Do the Democrats need a southern state to win - the answer is yes.


2000 votes; Change; 2004 votes
ARIZONA (Bush) 8 +2 10
CALIFORNIA (Gore) 54 +1 55
COLORADO (Bush)8 +1 9
CONNECTICUT (Gore) 8 -1 7
FLORIDA (Bush*) 25 +2 27
GEORGIA (Bush) 13 +2 15
ILLINOIS (Gore) 22 -1 21
INDIANA (Bush) 12 -1 11
MICHIGAN (Gore) 18 -1 17
MISSISSIPPI (Bush) 7 -1 6
NEVADA (Bush) 4 +1 5
NEW YORK (Gore) 33 -2 31
NORTH CAROLINA (Bush) 14 +1 15
OHIO (Bush) 21 -1 20
OKLAHOMA (Bush) 8 -1 7
PENNSYLVANIA (Gore) 23 -2 21
TEXAS (Bush) 32 +2 34
WISCONSIN (Gore) 11 -1 10

[arcane1]

1. is it possible to cook the census?

in the same way that accounting balance sheets, or voting machines, can be?


:shrug:

[AndyTiedye]

3. It Would be Much, Much, Easier

You noticed which states were in the "+2" column, I see.

[Brian Sweat]

6. The census is cooked.

Poor urban people are much more likely to go uncounted. Rich people are far more likely to be counted twice. This is way the Census Bureau wants to use statistical sampling to perform the count. It is cheaper and more acurate. The Republicans made them do a manual count, because the less acurate count favors them. However, the Census Bureau can still use statistical analysis to correct the census. They wanted to use this to correct the count in Florida. It would have lead to Florida receiving another seat in the house, but the Republican controlled state legislature opposed this because even though it would have given the state more seats, it would have moved a couple of them down to South Florida were the Democrats are and it would have made it harder for them to maintain control of the state legislature.

[zoidberg]

7. I doubt it

There is little doubt that Arizona, Texas, Georgia and Florida are booming. There was some debate on whether or not to use sampling in the census, but I haven't heard a single semi-reliable person argue that the census was rigged.

[jfxgillis]

2. I don't get your math

Plus 7 for Bush raises him to 278. Give Gore Florida and that takes Bush down to 251 even in the new Census.

Which is not to say the Dems don't need a Southern state, just that we can get by with just FL if we can win it, which I think we can.

I'd put Louisiana in the competitive ranks, too, for a Southern states. KY, MO and WV also, although they're technically Border States.

[wuushew]

4. With same result as 2000 I get a loss of 6, not 7

260 vs 266 for gore in 2004

http://www.grayraven.com/ec/

[goobergunch]

5. Gore was entitled to 267 electoral votes...

but one DC elector cast a blank ballot as a taxation without representation protest.