An In-depth look at the latest Gallup poll (National and NC)

[King of New Orleans]

and their implications for the fall election.

First, the National Poll

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

Kerry/Edwards leads 50-46 among LIKELY voters head to head with Bush/Cheney

Kerry/Edwards leads 51-44 among REGISTERED voters head to head with Bush/Cheney

Add Nader/Camejo to the mix and it's slightly different

K/E leads 50-45 among LIKELY voters in the 3-way race N/C gets 2

K/E leads 50-42 among REGISTERED voters N/C gets 4.


How's does Gallup determine LIKELY voters? Basically by asking if the voter has voted in the past and how certain they are of voting this fall. Its a SCREENING process. How accurate? it's open to debate (which we'll get to in NC)

However, it's clear that the higher the turnout this fall the better it is for Kerry/Edwards as REGISTERED voters more likely to vote K/E than Gallup's perceived LIKELY voters.

A second oddity is that this is the only poll I've seen where Nader actually slightly nicks GeeW instead of Kerry (though small numbers are always open to question)

Now, the NC Gallup poll

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-07-12-nc-poll.htm

For brevity sake, I'll just look at the 3-way breakdown

Among LIKELY voters Bush is ahead 54-39 (Nader 4)

Among REGISTERED voters Bush is ahead 49-43 (Nader 4)

So, in NC there's a 9 POINT swing between LIKELY and REGISTERED voters while there's only a 3 point swing among National voters?

This should have run up a big red flag at Gallup (which probably explains why they included the 49-43 number in the USA Today story when they normal don't mention such things).

Part of the problem may be the turnout formula Gallup apparently used which says "based on past voting history in North Carolina turnout is assumed at 50%"

The problem with this?

Turnout for the last two Presidential elections in NC have been 58.9% and 58.8%

Available in PDF here

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/index_data.html


Bottom line? Gallup admits they don't have experience polling in NC and it showed in this poll. They're adjusting of registered voters into likely voters looks highly suspect at best, incompetent at worst (we'll give them the benefit of the doubt and not accuse them of being malicious)

Second Bottom line? It's not just important to register people to vote, it's important to get them out and vote. Higher turnout=Better results for Kerry/Edwards

Thank you for wading thru this.

[Birthmark]

1. I honestly doubt that any of the polls...

...are even vaguely right. There are going to be a LOT of first time voters this time around. I know several myself. They are NOT registering to vote for the fake President Bush. There will be significant changes in Congress, too. The pollsters will all be amazed.

I will be drunk and giggling.

[buycitgo]

4. somebody posted a Mason Dixon poll yesterday

that shows it EVEN in NC with Edwards on the ticket

wasn's Gallup among the constant outliers, the most inaccurate during 2000?

[Beetwasher]

5. Correct, Which Is Why It's Disingenuous of Pollsters and Reporters

to stress the "likely" and "registered" voters as opposed to the total numbers. Turnout in this election is going to be huge.

[DarkHorse]

6. Polls aren't right

I don't bother with polls this far out.
Too much can happen. We are still
more than 3 months away from vote time.

Bush may not have Cheney on the ticket.
That would change dynamics.
A Bush/Guiliani ticket would be more
attractive to many people and that
would change things.

Guiliani - no constitutional amendment against
Gay marriage, abortion rights, 'America's Mayor' (Oprah said)
9/11 'hero', etc. etc.

[mrboba1]

2. excellent analysis!

:kick:

[Literate Tar Heel]

3. this is what I posted about the "likely voter" gap in NC on another thread

I'm curious about what criteria they used to determine who is a "likely voter" ... voted in the last election? voted in the last 3 elections? is age a factor? ... the latest Rasmussen poll in N.C. from June said that Kerry's strongest support in the state is from voters under 30 and given the large number of college students who may be voting in their first election and the fact that Hispanics are a very fast-growing segment of the population in the state, it sounds like there could be several percentage points there who are for Kerry that probably wouldn't fit under the "likely voter" category but who very well may vote ... also keep in mind that the state is about 22% African-American and there could be a larger turn-out among those who weren't terribly enthused (understandably) by Gore in 2000, but may be energized by the way Bush has slighted the NAACP and the fact that Edwards, whose message is very popular with them, is on the ticket ... most of these people would probably not be considered "likely voters" either