Terminating Event : Why Arnold will lose

[chiburb]

From Tomasky at TAP:

Snip:
Every so often in life you have to go out on a limb. So here goes: Arnold Schwarzenegger will not be the next governor of California. What's more, his loss will represent an important moment in a shift in American politics that has been in gestation for some time now -- toward a politics in which voters make decisions more on the basis of their cultural affinities than in response to a candidate's charisma or fame.

The media have already decided Schwarzenegger is close to a shoo-in. The Time magazine poll -- in which he led Gov. Gray Davis by 19 points and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante by 10 -- was widely perceived as showing his strength. In fact, it showed exactly the opposite. Schwarzenegger is probably among the two dozen most famous people in the world. A lieutenant governor is a lieutenant governor; he can drive himself to the video store and stare at the shelves for 45 minutes without a soul noticing. Usually a political candidate who is already famous and enters a race starts out polling high and has nowhere to go but down once he starts sounding more like a politician and less like a movie star. That Arnold led Bustamante just 25-to-15 should be very worrisome for Schwarzenegger partisans.

And in the week he's been a candidate, Schwarzenegger's numbers sure haven't gone up. His first round of morning talk-show appearances was judged pretty awful. More recently, as the Los Angeles Times reported Wednesday, there's been enough grumpiness in the Arnold camp that a fairly major shake-up has already taken place, with people like George Gorton, Schwarzenegger's chief adviser over the last couple of years, relegated to the second tier. When campaigns do that, leaks to the press from the disgruntled faction are the inevitable byproduct. And once a campaign gets a reputation as disorganized or divided, that becomes the scent the media decide to track, and the reputation becomes a difficult one to shake.

Read more here:
http://www.prospect.org/webfeatures/2003/08/tomasky-m-08-13.html

Californians? Your opinions please? This makes sense to me, but I'm in Illinois...

[blm]

1. I have had these same thoughts.

And that is why I believe that the electorate will take the time to LISTEN to the candidates who can state their cases in detail.

[moez]

2. Why I will be disgusted when Arnold wins....

Would be a more appropriate heading for your thread.

It seems funny that neither the Republicans nor the Democrats that I've seen interviewed seem overly thrilled with him. But, none of that will matter. Because no matter what, right or wrong - he's Arnold.

Do you honestly believe that most voters are going to worry about his (lack of) political experience or agenda? I don't believe that the majority of voters today have the slightest clue about (what they consider to be) such trivialities. I think that they are going to fall over themselves voting for their favorite movie hero.

You may be right in general that "once he starts sounding more like a politician and less like a movie star" popular candidates might take a dive. But, we're talking about a very small window between now and October 7. People aren't going to tire of him that quickly.