What if the Confederacy had been allowed to remain separate?

[Delano]

Let's say Lincoln had decided to allow the Southern states to exercise their right of secession in perpetuity, and the two nations were able to peacefully coexist until now. What do you think things would be like now?

[dryan]

1. My views

I think the south would have come back into the union.

[Lucky Luciano]

2. I agree

They would come back with little or no face to save. They would realize the economic consequences of leaving the union were devastating to everyone - except the large slave owners.

[Delano]

4. Fair enough response, but...

The poll is based on the hypothetical that both nations still exist intact today...

[trof]

3. You know, so do I.

Secession has never been shown to be illegal.
The states/colonies individualy elected to join the union of their own free will and, reasonably I think, naturally assumed they had the right to opt out also.

I think we would have eventually patched things up.

[mot78]

14. It's most the issue of strict vs. loose construction of the Constitution

But ultimately if there was another Civl War, it wouldn't be about one region vs. the other, but rather Liberals vs. Conservatives.

[ibegurpard]

5. I think we should have let them go

Imposed enormous tariffs and sanctions and offered amnesty to all slaves.

[Virginian]

66. That was exactly why they left in the first place.

Contrary to current beliefs, not every white person in the south owned a person of African ancestry.
The majority of white people couldn't afford to own a horse, much less a personal servant. They opposed emancipation because of a fear that it would cause an influx of cheap labor into the job market, causing them to lose their jobs or forcing down their wages.

Raw materials would go from the south to the north without being taxed, but the manufactored goods would be taxed when sold to the south. Sort of a one way tax.

The modern equilivant is interstate tolls. Cars from the South, driving North have to stop and pay tolls. Many of those tollbooths do not have corresponding south-bound tolls, so Northern cars get to travel south for free.

(Please don't tell me they are round trip tolls - I know that. I am playing with your brain.)

[Hubert Flottz]

6. Other.......................

What, you mean they didn't win?

[trof]

10. SIC 'EM Hubert!

hee
;-)

[Classical_Liberal]

7. Prosperous slave free North and South

We just should have stopped enforcing the fugitive slave act. All the slaves would have run north. This would have ruined the South's plantation economy and caste system since they would have had to exploit the poor whites, who would have held it against the right sobs and they would have revolted. Probably would have eventually rejoined the Union. It would have been a good thing.

[Lucky Luciano]

27. I don't know about that

Although the north was anti-slavery, most people were still extremely racist against blacks and would probably have tried very hard to prevent blacks from entering the north since they wanted absolutely nothing to do with them. Maybe the north would have allowed them to escape from the south on the condition that the north would deport them to Monrovia, Liberia - not out of good will or anything - just to spite the south and have fewer blacks in their cities. I believe that during the draft riots in NYC in 1863, for example, that blacks were brutally targeted by those not wanting to fight for, among other things, the emancipation of slavery.

BTW, I don't use African-American for black. I hate that term - I will only use it if someone calls me European-American which is also ridiculous. Wasn't there a time when the in-phrase was "Black is beautiful?" I'll stick with the one syllable word and not worry about semantics.

[Virginian]

78. Reminds me of a witness in the OJ trial.

The Cab Driver stated that he saw an African-American jump the fence and ....
If he couldn't see the man's face to recognise him, how did he know the man's nationality?

[Yupster]

50. Decent chance in my opinion

that there would have been massive resettlement of former slaves in Caribbean lands if gradual manumission were used. Also, I think anti-slavery groups would have been willing to buy freedom for thousands of slaves and bring them north, which would probably mean west since some northern states had ordinances against blacks.

BTW - at the time of the Civil War, Virginia had the most slaves and Georgia was second. Maryland had the most free blacks and Virginia was second.

[Virginian]

67. I think you have it right except

I think the two nations would have existed side by side as best friends, similar to our relationship with Canada.

Slavery was on it't way out by the time the war came along It had ceased to be very profitable. There were only a few rich snobby whites who were slave owners.

The common white was poorer, lived in towns, had small farms or worked as share croppers. They earned a living any way they could. They were not that different from their northern cousins. The war came, they had to defend their homes from invading armies. They were defeated and then oppressed for taking up arms against the Northern agressors. They were denied the rights of citizenship in the towns where they grew up. They were ridiculed and called stupid for their dialect. From jokes to movies to TV shows they were stereotyped as having many negative traits. Even today, regional discrimination and ridicule is acceptable in American culture. A Southern man is going to vote for George Bush because the Southern Man sees Bush as someone who wouldn't make fun of the way he talks, someone who would accept him for who and what he really is.

Howard Dean almost got it. He might have gotten to the Southern male, except for one thing; They now have American flags on the backs of their pickup trucks. He bought into the stereotype when he said confederate flags.

Ken Burns put it best, "Before the war, it was 'The United States ARE...'; after the war, it was 'The United States IS...'."

[LeahMira]

75. Bizarre.

A Southern man is going to vote for George Bush because the Southern Man sees Bush as someone who wouldn't make fun of the way he talks, someone who would accept him for who and what he really is.

Which is really funny because Bush isn't Southern. He's about as "Northern elitist" as they come.

[Virginian]

77. It isn't about reality, it is about perception.

If people voted on reality, Kerry wouldn't be running against incumbent President Gore. And, of course, there would be no Iraq war, and I believe the date 9/11 would be no different from 9/10 or 9/12.

[tom_paine]

Confederate State is either neutral towards Hitler or an Axis Member

Think about it: The Nazis and the Confederates shared (and still share) so many philosophies

Hatred of Liberals
Hatred of Jews
Hatred of Blacks
Hatred of Gays
Infreior Races shouldn't be allowed to read or learn

I know there's more, but just to name a few...

So, when WWII comes, the North isn't strong enough to defeat Hitler alone. And the Confederacy would probably be sending "Lend-Lease" ships to Nazi Danzig.

The end of everything. Hitler wins. Right Wingers get what they want. The Filthy Little Nobodies know their place and it's in a Concentration Camp.

As a result, Free America is eradicated some 50 years before it actually was eradicated on Dec. 12, 2000.

[trof]

13. I don't think they had invented gays yet.

I'm pretty sure.
:shrug:

[tom_paine]

15. Whatever. Confederacy sides with Nazis

or remians neutral at best.

There are too many common philosophies between the Busheviks and the Nazis, ESPECIALLY prior to the 60s, when they were almost identical to Nazis vis-a-vis Blacks/Jews.

And if "gay's weren't invented" (yes, yes I know sarcasm) in 1861, then you can rest assured they were by the time Hitler began mirdering them.

To which the Confederate reply would have been, "Hurrah for the Nazis!"

[trof]

24. They mirdered gays? The hell they did. The nerve!

[tom_paine]

84. Yes, the Nazis murdered gays.

Any Confederate Gays, I have no doubt, kept inside the closet for fear of what would happen.

But I freely admit to not having read much about Confederate Homosexuality. Not much is written, I am guessing.

[Yupster]

51. You're assuming the Confederates of 1861

would have the same philosophies as the Confederates of 1941. That seems to be pretty shaky ground to me.

[AntiCoup2K4]

20. Not sure about the gays, but...

I'm reasonably sure Danzig hadn't made any records yet. Hell, I don't even think Glenn was born yet. :crazy:

[mot78]

16. Hatred of those groups was in the North too

I don't like the fac that we stereotype the south. BTW, the most Conservative regions of this country today are places like Idaho and Utah, where * gets almost 70% of the popular vote. At least in Mississippi and Alabama we still manage to get 40%+.

[tom_paine]

19. I'm well aware of that, but it was not institutionalized

as it was in the Confederacy up until the 1960s.

Or as it was in Nazi Germany.

Hatreds are one thing. It when those hatreds are allowed and even encouraged to fester by the National Government, that the problem exists.

No, in spite of those extant hatred in the Union, they still went out and freed the slaves.

I would also like to point out that I didn;t say this to bash the South.

There are many good people in the South and everywhere. The New Confederacy is NOt a geographical entity anymore.

My apologies if you though I was bashing the South for fun or something.

[NoPasaran]

18. Hitler never comes to power

Western US also goes its own way. US never intervenes in World War One; Kaiser Bill wins. German Empire eclipses British Empire.

[troublemaker]

29. And yet WW II happens right on schedule

Even without WWI, the Russian revolution or the rise of fascism I suspect Russia and Germany were going to have the largest land war in history between 1935-1955. Funny how that works.

The next biggie: China vs. Vietnam in a war for women. Does India side with Vietnam? Don't touch that dial...

[tritsofme]

47. If Bismark had his way Germany and Russia would have been best

friends.

Kaiser Wilhelm II screwed that up to back up the Austrians.

[QC]

25. There were quite a few Jewish Confederates.

Judah P. Benjamin served in the Confederate cabinet years before a Jew ever held a cabinet position in the U.S. government. The Confederate Quartermaster General, Abraham C. Myers, was also Jewish.

Here are some reviews of a book on the subject: http://www.sc.edu/uscpress/Fw00/3363.html
http://www.jewish-history.com/books_rosen.html

And until the mass immigration of the 19th century, the country's largest Jewish communities were in the South, in such places as New Orleans, Richmond, and Charleston.

So your broad brush approach to this issue leaves quite a lot to be desired, as is usually the case with oversimplifications.

[Yupster]

40. Was just about to post this QC

Confederate hatred of the Jews?

Seems like someone sloganeering and letting his biases take over because he hasn't read much on the topic.

The Jews of the Confederacy were among its most loyal citizens and they rose to much higher levels in its government than they did in the US.

[QC]

42. Well, you know what they say about great minds ;-)

And lest we get the impression that racism was a Southern monopoly during the time, here's a good excerpt on the New York Draft Riots of 1863: http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/317749.html

[tom_paine]

82. Did you even read my posts above?

I am well aware that racism existed, often quite virulenty, in the North.

I am talking about the degree of Nationalized and Instituttionalized racism.

Did it exist in the North? To some degree, but nowhere near the Confederate institution of slavery and all it's commensurate laws.

And Confederate hatred of Jews has been evident since I've been alive and long before. One only has to listen to that Good Confederate, Daniel Carver of the KKK, to know what is thought by that segment of Southern society, now and then.

Finally, sure, people point to Judah P. Benjamin, but he was hampered and hamstrung by people's prjudice around him and he was sifted to different departments in spite of being Davis ablest advisor/Minister.

Yeah, they liked ol' Judah just fine, especially his Jewishness.

http://www.civilwarhome.com/benjaminbio.htm

NOTE: Once again, I'd liek to add that this is not a slur against the Soputh or Souhtenrers. There are many fine people in the South today, and the Bushevik Confederacy isn't geographic anymore. My apologies to any Southerners who belive that I am making a blanket condemnantion of the South. I am not.

[QC]

88. Yes, I read them.

That's how I knew they were pointless oversimplifications based on the questionable--and unsupported--assumption that the opinions of people like Davis in the 1860's were identical to those of the Klan in the 1960's. That might be the case, but just asserting something is not enough--some evidence would be nice.

And the link you provide is an interesting one, though it doesn't really support your argument. No one here has said that there were no antisemites in the Old South, only that Benjamin and others held higher positions in the Confederacy than were possible in the U.S. at the time, which certainly calls into question your assertion that antisemitism was central to Confederate ideology.

[tom_paine]

90. I don't believe I specifically said or implied antisemitism was central

to Confederate theology in 1861. Though I think we can agree that it is quite central to Neoconfederate/KKK/Liberal-Hating-Bushevik philsophy today.

While you are correct about the Confederacy at the time, my assertion, not much of a stretch IMHO, is that the increase in Southern Anti-Semnitism (including the current Robertson-Flawell "Defense of Israel because it needs to be around for the Rapture, when those Unbelieving Jews will get theirs" iteration) which occurred in 1870-1950 would have taken the same track and perhaps worse in the event of Confdereate Victory.

By 1940, the KKK and the Nazis shared many a philsophy. We can see in Modern Busheviks the arrogance of the Confederacy echoed, especially NeoConfederate Ashcroft.

Antisemitism was NOT central to Confederate Ideology in 1861. Antisemitism IS CENTRAL to NeoConfederate/KKK doctrine TODAY.

Think about it.

[tom_paine]

87. Actually, I'm a Civil War buff who's read quite a bit on the topic

You are partially correct, but to imply that anti-Semitism didn't exist in 1861 is naive and not supported by history.

You are correct in the Southern anti-Semitism rose during the Jim Crow Era and that of the KKK's Height.

The KKK/CCC/NeoConfederate arm of the Busheviks, themselves having been mostly mainstreamed (in a euphemistic, non-racist way, to fool the Moderates), into the Imperial Bushevik Party, is now virulently anti-Semitic.

Let's just say I am assuming the same 1870s-1950s upswing in Confederate anti-Semitism would have occured no matter how the war turned out.

And until the late 1930s, there were MANY Nazi Sympathizers among the Right-Wing Busheviks of their Day, many in the South, where KKK and Nazi philosophies jibed

(Are you going to argue they DIDN'T philosophically converge by the 1940s? Surely you couldn't be THAT disingenuous?!?)

even given a Liberal Union victory, not a "conservative" Confederate one.

Finally, let me just repeat an old cliche regarding how well-read you assume I am on the Confederacy and Civil War...

To ASSUME makes an ASS out of YOU and me.

[tom_paine]

85. I am well aware of Judah Benjamin

Perhpas the anti-Semitism of extremist "Confederate" (who later became KKK who later became CCC) citizens has increased a bit and become more violent (peaking in the 30s and 40s, but resurging again soon, I'm guessing, if the Busheviks stay in power) since 1861, though I think Judah Benjamin's plight argues MY case more eloquently than it speaks for yours...

http://www.civilwarhome.com/benjaminbio.htm

Why was Davis' most effective minister forced to keep switching positions, when he excelled everywhere he went?

Read some books on the difficulties and backbiting Mr. Benjamin faced due to his religion.

Oversimplification, my ass!

:freak: :freak:

[RoyGBiv]

26. Perhaps...

It would depend a lot on how the basis of Southern ideology with regard to politics developed.

The centralization wouldn't have gone over well with Confederates unless they'd determined in the years since that centralization was really the only way to maintain their own government. And, there is evidence that they were starting to figure that out even as they supposedly fought against the very notion. Strange ironies there.

Some of it, perhaps a lot, would depend on how the US and CS aligned during WWI. Without WWI we don't even get to WWII.

Have you, or anyone, ever read Harry Turtledove's alternate history in which the CSA was victorious in the "war of secession"? It works through this idea, and in Harry's time-line, fascism actually takes root first in the CSA. Instead of the Jews being the targets, fascists in the CSA target blacks whom Jake Featherston, the CSA Hitler, blames for the loss and degradation of the CSA in the "Great War"

Mind candy, really, but it's interesting to see how he works it all out.

[Yupster]

41. I think you are correct Roy

that the Confederate government would have slowly become more centralized over time. I believe that's the natural inclination of every government. I also agree with you that it could be seen happening even during the war itself. The draft would be a good example of this.

I'm a big Harry Turtledove fan, but I think his Civil War series is his weakest effort. I much prefer reading about the problems of the Fleetlord. Anyway, I don't see any way in the world that the two American nations would align on different sides of a world war. Nothing in it for either side.

Instead, I see the US being the dominant industrial power in the world much as it is today. (What's this Sweden stuff in the poll?)

I see the Confederacy being a strong regional power, maybe with the power of France, Italy or the Ukraine today. New Orleans would be a great trading center of the world, and the Confederacy's power and influence would be pointed toward the Caribbean and Central America.

Instead of having two English speaking democracies in N America, you'd have three. The US would dominate the Confederacy much like it does Canada, but the three nations would work together on most issues, especially foreign affairs.

I really don't think the world would be that much different from the world today.

Maybe we'd be a little further along because who knows how many great inventions or works of art, music or literature we lost with the 600,000 men who died in that war.

I believe slavery would have ended gradually probably beginning in the 1880's, but that would depend on what kind of southern leadership there was, and that would depend on whether there was some fighting, or if they were allowed to just walk away peacefully.

That's my crystal ball anyway.

And PS -- General Longstreet would have never become a Republican.

[RoyGBiv]

56. Agreed about Turtledove...

I got into the series because I had some correspondence with him just before the Prequel How Few Remain was published. I had written written something in a Usenet post regarding another of his books, and to my shock he responded. (One of my criticisms had referenced his earlier CW-based story and him getting a few details wrong, specifically Longstreet's birthplace.) Anyway ... I got addicted to the series simply because I'm one of those people that has to find out what happens once I start a series. Some of his other books are superior.

Anyway, I don't have much of a complaint with the rest of what you say, except perhaps to say it may be a bit too optimistic on the eventual end of slavery. It certainly would have occurred as mechanical devices began reducing the need for such manual labor, but what happens to the large population of enslaved people is something else to consider. I'm not sure how even to start addressing that.

And you're right, he wouldn't have become a Republican. :)

[Morning Dew]

57. I Love Turtledove's alternate histories...

Absolutely delicious what he does with Custer.

I did think the Worldwar series was better, though.

[Yupster]

60. Don't you love the character Avtar gdtr?

He's one of the nmost sympathetic characters I've ever read in a novel. Has there ever been anyone placed in such an impossible position? All that and having to be a lizard too.

[Morning Dew]

68. I liked Atvar

Very difficult situation with your enemy about 7 hundred years more advanced than you thought, ginger tasters in your ranks and more of the fleet on the way.

[VOX]

39. Confederate Secretary of State Judah P. Benjamin was a Jew...

Don't confuse the original Confederacy with the yahoos who've co-opted its history over the years.

To be sure, the Confederacy's economy was centered on the subjugation of a race, and it was, as author Shelby Foote calls it, "The greatest sin of this country." There is no way for the South to wiggle out of this fact.

However, the "second greatest sin of this country" (again, per Foote), was the way emancipation was carried out -- by the North, with Lincoln killed. An entire race was told in effect, "You're free, now hit the road." No reparations, no acreage, no schooling, no attempt made to weave them into society.

Remember, segregation initially was a *Northern* institution. African Americans were lynched during the New York Draft Riots in 1863.

IMO, no particular region of this country is any more or less to blame for holding down an entire race of people. And this is not to mention what the United States did to the American Indian (genocide).

[Media_Lies_Daily]

64. Tom, your post is full of crap. Period. Maybe you should take a....

...break from posting for a while.

[ThoughtCriminal]

8. Maybe Other

Somewhat impoverished Union, Extremely impoversished South.

One thing I wonder is how long the border Union states would have either given up slavery or forced to give up slavery or joined the Confederacy.

[Yupster]

43. A good question ThoughtC

The slave states were tired of being dominated by the greater populations of the north. Once the seven Confederate states left, the remaining eight US slave states would have had the choice of leaving too, giving up their lifestyle, or being completely totally dominated by the northern states.

I think that if given the free choice, most of them would have eventually left to join the Confederacy, assuming it looked like it was doing okay, which I think it would have.

[KamaAina]

9. Prosperous, UK-like USA, developing, Ireland-like CSA.

with apartheid, we assume, banished by now, just as it was in South Africa, which didn't even have a USA right next door.

Plus, I'm not sure even the "blue states" by themselves would ever attain Sweden-like-ness.

[booley]

11. remember, apartied did fall

..and I can see the American slaves putting up some fierce fighting. they already were outnumbering the whites and had support from abolitionists from the North. Meanwhile , the South would not have had the need for venegence becuase of all the stuff they suffered from the civil war (whether they deserved it or not, they did suffer)

In the long run, it might have worked out better.

But unless we figure out how to cross dimensional barriers, we will never know.

[kcwayne]

12. Jerry Falwell would wear really goofy hats

and there would be weekly executions of heretics on the Christian News Network. The South would look alot like Afghanistan under the Taliban. The South would have sided with Hitler in WWII, and the entire US would be a third world nation.

[QC]

17. This tired topic again?

Have we finally run out of things to talk about?

[RoyGBiv]

21. This poll is based on false assumptions...

It's meaningless without considering what the true nature of the original conflict was about. And I don't mean "causes" nor am I trying to deflect from the issue of slavery.

As I said in that other thread, had secession been allowed it sets a standard of unilateral secession being the solution to regional issues. Now consider the number of extremely difficult regional issues that have cropped up over the years. If you can't think of a least half a dozen that would have, with the precendent set, resulted in a further dissolution of the Union, you're just not trying.

Allowing secession means allowing the Northwest and the Southwest to go. It means parts of the MidWest get fed up with Northeastern influenced, the railroad power, etc., or it means the Northeast gets tired of chumming with a bunch of rabble.

OnEdit: It means we're the former Yugoslavia.

[Yupster]

54. Don't agree with you this time Roy

For the nation's first 70 years, there was always talk of one area or another seceeding, but it only happened once and only after a 20 year buildup. I think secession was not so frivolously attempted, and I don't think it would have been in the future either.

[RoyGBiv]

55. Interesting way to look at it...

I will grant that my view is certainly very speculative and is probably more representative of an extreme case scenario mode of thinking about it. Put another way, I'm probably reflecting a Unionist "fear" argument of some variety put forth prior to and during the war itself.

I do certainly agree that secession was not frivolously attempted. It was a deeply considered strategy, and even in the event, there were many who eventually acquiesced to it who did so with a much troubled conscience. As you say, when the subject did arise during the nation's earlier periods, it was not simply attempted. Also, and something I did not consider initially but have even argued on occasion in other forums, a successful secession actually had the potential of solidifying Unionist sentiment in the remaining Union since slavery would no longer have been such a divisive element that the government had previously had to cater to.

So, perhaps I should revise my opinion to say that I believe that is one potential outcome that should have been included in the original possibilities. I do think it is a possibility, and the reason is that a successful secession attempt does indeed set a precedent that might have been used should an equally divisive and compelling regional issue arise in the future.

[blindpig]

22. tough to track such a long period

unless you're a hack writer like Harry Turtledove. Two results that I see as possible: 1) the South would become an appendage of the British Empire. 2)the rise of the Robber Barons might not occur without the war.
Southern expansionism in Latin America would be a wild card, France had designs on Mexico as did some slave-imperialist. What would Britain and the US do? I dunno.

[Yupster]

45. South part of Britsh empire?

Where does that line of thinking come from?

They fought harder and took greater losses than any group of Americans who ever fought so they wouldn't be dominated by their northern neighbors. You think they would have allowed themselves to be dominated by a much smaller country thousands of miles away?

I don't get where that could even come from?

[blindpig]

76. economics

They had an economy totally dependent on exports, primarily to Britain. I'm not saying that they would surrender sovereignty, but they would have to dance to Britain's tune or learn to eat cotton. Public sentiment in Britain may well might force them to change slavery to apartheid and would certainly condition the Confederacy's foreign affairs.

[trof]

23. OK all uh y'all. Just for THAT...

Y'all ain't gittin' NO MORE:
fried chicken
turnip greens and pot likker
cornbread
boiled peanuts
barbecue
black-eyed peas
chitlins
Aunt Jewel's Seven Layer Lemon Cake
catfish fingers

And ever body goes to bed with NO dinner.
Next time y'all will get a switchin'.
Now y'all go out and play on the tire swing.
I swear.
Kids these days.
Work my fingers to the bone
mutter...mumble...

[AspenRose]

30. Grits!

What about the GRITS? And the Biscuits with cream gravy? And the moon pies and Nehi soda?

;)

[trof]

32. DAMN! GRITS!

I knew I'd left something out.
Thanks D.R.
Oh...and Goo-Goo Clusters.

[MAlibdem]

38. Ok, what I like to eat in that list...

I like...
fried chicken
cornbread
black-eyed peas

Never had...
boiled peanuts
Aunt Jewel's Seven Layer Lemon Cake
catfish fingers

Just gross...
barbecue (I'm talkin REAL barbecue...the heart stoppin salt & fat kind)
chitlins

[troublemaker]

28. State of constant war...

The simplest answer to the hypothetical is that the US wouldn't exist at all.

"What if the Confederacy had been allowed to remain separate?"

The least discussed (in public schools, at least) ugly but key fact about the Confederacy was that it was expansionist by design. They planed to reach an understanding with the north and then invade Mexico, and keep going straight down to Antarctica; a vast slave empire. For all the bullshit about heritage and chivalry the Confederacy was actually an early version of the Third Reich--an aggressive military exporter of demented racial ideology.

So if the question means we must assume that that the north NEVER militarily destroyed the south then the south would have eventually destroyed the north because the south was going to be militarily active no matter what.

If the questions means only what would have happened if the Union had just let the Confederacy go in 1860... probably the military elimination of the south, just in a different year. There was no long-term peaceful answer.

Canada exists today only because of Britain. Britain demonstrated throughout our Civil War that they would not side with a slave-holding nation, so I don't see she and the Confederacy ever forming a military alliance. The driving factors were moving in the other direction. Anti-slavery feeling stayed high in England and the ongoing colonization of India eventually made the American south expendable as a cotton producer.

[trof]

34. oooo. I need to borrow your crystal ball.

What's your take on Microsoft stock on tomorrow's opening bell?

[troublemaker]

44. Microsoft will invade Poland

(Safe answer... somebody always invades Poland)

[PATRICK]

31. The south would have been swallowed as it has been now

by the corporation dominant GOP of the industrialized north. After losing the war a fascist reaction sooner or later would have shredded the disemboweled Constitution. Slavery would have quickly melded into sharecropping and industrial worker slaves so the results would be nothing to cheer about.

Divided country would have played into the hands of the tyrants in both nations, but the South would basically be a stooge base as it is now, co-opted values and loyalties with neither country having the democratic unities needed to move reforms. Women would not have the right vote. No unions. Bitter and encouraged interracial strife over the competition for land and jobs with wounds of the Civil War aggravating everything if not exactly the same way as today.

That's for a start. Think of the failure of the League of nations, the fate of any country successfully divided by Civil War. Each individually sinks under its own defeat or ugly triumph. Divisions like this breed long term evils. Tyrannies multiplied, one step from chaos or conquest.

Happy, happy corporate GOP. The true success they pine for and are almost attaining with one keystone Cops administration.

And lots more dead heroes struggling heroically yet more fruitlessly against the system.

I don't even think this is being pessimistic, do you?

[trof]

33. Pomposity, thy name is...

well, there are just too many to choose from.
What we used to call a target rich environment.

Harumph...harumph...well of course the racist fascist misogynistic necrophiliac beastial homophobic incestuous devil-worshipping Christ killing Jew-baiting southerners would have slogged their impoverished ignorant benighted whiney bible thumping toothless deep-fried asses down the road to perdition and utter damnation.

I'm tryin' my ass off to follow the words of one of my heroes, William Jefferson Clinton.
"It ain't rocket science. If you like people, they will like you back."

I'm tryin' REAL hard to like you.

OK, here's the other cheek.
Whack away.
:evilgrin:

[troublemaker]

48. I'll take the bait

because I'm plenty pompous.

Isn't it a problem that this question is viewed differently in north and south? Germans today have a fairly unconflicted view of Hitler, yet even given an extra 80 years of distance many southerners (many, not ALL... I've never lived above the Mason Dixon line myself) have a gauzy or ambiguous view of the Confederacy, even though it was the most dire enemy we (that's WE, as in citizens of the United States) have ever had to face.

I'm not defending equating southerners with the Confederacy, but many southerners make it damn hard not to by talking about it like it was something cute. (Texans are even worse painting the Alamo as something other than a bunch of pro-slavery nuts trying to steal land from a country because that country recently outlawed slavery. What heroes!) The Confederacy was the first draft of Nazi-ism. That doesn't mean all southerners are fascists unless they want to say "I stand by the ideals of the confederacy!" Fascism is a disease of democracies and as the world's oldest and most stable post-enlightenment democracy it makes sense that we would have been the first to witness the type of pathology that arises when people 1) give up on existing democratic political institutions, 2) embrace militarism as the ultimate ideal of the state, and 3) turn to cultish and delusional poltical thinking... sometimes, but far from always, involving racial theories.

[Yupster]

58. Difference is

that almost all Germans today view the Nazis as terrors who started a World War, and deserved to lose it.

Many souterners today, and some northerners too, believe the south had a Constitutional right to secede, and therefore was in the right, yet was still beaten to a pulp. They lost 1/4 of their adult white men killed, another quarter injured, had their livestock killed, railroads burned, money made worthless, and factories destroyed. No matter how hard they fought, and even though they were in the right, they were still destroyed. It's not an easy thing to just get over.

Really no comparison to Nazi Germany at all.

[Bridget Burke]

52. They're just fantasizing about a Whiter USA.....

Those troublesome people of color would have remained where they belong. With the abandonment of abolition, the ideas born from the Transcendental movement (including Female Suffrage) would have been forgotten. The parsimonious & puritanical Yankee would continue as the American ideal. The smaller USA would have had little use for immigrants. The Irish could have remained the underclass; swarthy southern Europeans & Jews would have not come in such numbers. No Asians & no Latin Americans to speak of; what would draw them?

The USA would be a staid, hard-working country with one language & one church (well, a few Catholic churches for maid's-day-off). Everyone in their place and quiet, tasteful parlor music setting the tone.

[troublemaker]

53. BTW You have the easy social grace of the "better" southerners

I'm 'kidding on the square' You're as consistently pleasant as anyone I see on these boards.

[trof]

73. Oh, sir. I blush. Thank you.

I owe it all to mama.
She raised me right.
"A soft (or sometimes humorous) answer turneth away wrath."

[tom_paine]

83. trof, I repeat AGAIN...

NOTE: Once again, I'd like to add that this is not a slur against the Soputh or Souhtenrers. There are many fine people in the South today, and the Bushevik Confederacy isn't geographic anymore. My apologies to any Southerners who belive that I am making a blanket condemnantion of the South. I am not.

Take a deep breath. Relax. If you wish to believe I am insulting all Southerners, that is your right.

But you cannot know how I feel. I AM NOT insulting all Souhterners just because. If one day someone should bring to light an unpleasant truth or specvulation about my home, I should hope that I am big enough to accept the criticism without knee-jerk response.

[kymar57]

35. Mason Dixon Line dweller here

Every option offered here includes some form of apartheid/slavery. I really don't think either system would have survived this long even among us dumb rednecks. Just MODO

[carolinayellowdog]

36. Confederacy would never have been viable w/only 7 members

Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Arkansas would not have seceded without the demand to supply troops to the Union Army. The 7 original Confederate states would not have had sufficient industry to survive as a nation.

[Yupster]

49. A good point Carolina YD

Certainly Lincoln's demanding troops from the border states was one of the greatest political blunders of American history.

I believe if the 7 states were left free to go though, that at least some of the 8 border states would have joined the Confederacy since their political power in the union, which they already lamented, would have been even lower without the 14 senators from the deep south. Virginia had more slaves than any other state.

I think if given the choice of being one of the eight slave states left in the union or the most important state of the Confederacy, they'd have eventually gone south. Once Virginia left, North Carolina would probably follow. I think Arkansas would probably eventually leave too. Tennessee is a tough call. Before the call for troops they voted pretty much 50-50 to stay in the Union. If Tennessee left, I think Kentucky would go too. That's probably all though.

[kvnf]

37. wait a minute

Wait, I thought we were being ruled by Confederates right now...aren't we? I mean, what else do you call these evangelical, plantation-owning, minimum-wage abolishing, union-hating, minority fearing, white people besides Confederates?

My fellow Americans, it's time to take out the confederacy once again.
This time, lets do it right.

[EndElectoral]

46. The North would be on alternative energy by now

The South would be fighting a Crusade in Iraq with President Falwell speaking. General GW Bush would be comanding troops at Abu Gharib, and Vice President Robertson would be giving the comencement speech at the Yale of the South - Bob Jones University.

Soldiers would be no problem because slaves could be used.

[qwertyMike]

59. Prosperous South/ Poor North

America's wealth was based on slavery

[QC]

61. But the northeastern industrialists discovered that wage slavery

could be much, much more profitable than chattel slavery, an approach that the planters took up after the war, in the form of sharecropping and tenant farming.

So it's very likely that chattel slavery was one the way out by 1860, war or no war.

[Yupster]

65. Brazil was the last major nation to give up slavery

around 1880. It's hard for me to believe that either the US or Confederacy would have kept it going after that. I agree it was ending. The question was just how to best end it.

[Xithras]

81. Yes and no

America, as a whole, was neither wealthy or powerful before the civil war. The northern states had the natural resources to allow them to take advantage of the industrial revolution, but the markets were almost entirely domestic and relatively small, so wealth was only generated for a few. The south, while exporting far more raw materials (primarily cotton and tobacco), was still an agrarian economy which, by their very definition, are poor. Raw cotton simply wasn't worth much. The southern rich didn't have the big pretty mansions because they had the money to build them, they had the big pretty mansions because the labor was free and the construction costs were minimal. The vast majority of the population which did not own slaves often lived in conditions little improved over the ones the slaves themselves lived in.

The United States didn't really start becoming a wealthy nation until it coupled the assembly line with its production facilities and began mass producing goods for export in the early 20th century, and didn't really become a world power until the second world war. Admittedly, there were forays into expansionism following WWI and the US became a player in world politics following that war, but you didn't see the major and widespread global political and economic involvement from the US that you see today until the post WWII era.

[troublemaker]

89. Yes and No

I agree with much of what you say but I think you've shaded things a little. We Americans have long mythologized our early little-country status, but we weren't really very little.

When we coupled the assembly line with our production facilities and began mass producing goods for export in the early 20th century we did not "start becoming a wealthy nation" We cemented our position as easily the most economically powerful nation on Earth. We were already a very wealthy nation well before that and everybody in Europe owed us beaucoup bucks.

In terms of continental perceptions of American power, it was recognized early on that America was going to be the world's most powerful nation eventually. As Napoleon said to Talleyrand when he gave us the Louisiana territories (and 'gave' is the word; he surprised us when he threw in the entire territory for essentially what we had already agreed to pay just for New Orleans. We were glad for the gift.) Anyway, Napoleon said to Talleyrand that in one stroke he had made America a great nation and doomed the commercial dominance of the British Empire. (He was thinking in terms of generations--it was a big-picture assault on Britain, which he had already given up on defeating straight-up)

[Zomby Woof]

62. Virgil Caine is the name

...and I served on the Danville train,
'Til Stoneman's cavalry came and tore up the tracks again.
In the winter of '65, We were hungry, just barely alive.
By May the tenth, Richmond had fell, it's a time I remember, oh so well,

The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down, and the bells were ringing,
The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down, and the people were singin'. They went
La, La, La, La, La, La, La, La, La, La, La, La, La, La,

Back with my wife in Tennessee, When one day she called to me,
"Virgil, quick, come see, there goes Robert E. Lee!"
Now I don't mind choppin' wood, and I don't care if the money's no good.
Ya take what ya need and ya leave the rest,
But they should never have taken the very best.

Like my father before me, I will work the land,
Like my brother above me, who took a rebel stand.
He was just eighteen, proud and brave, But a Yankee laid him in his grave,
I swear by the mud below my feet,
You can't raise a Caine back up when he's in defeat...

[Zomby Woof]

63. Big wheels keep on turnin'

Carry me home to see my kin
Singin' songs about the southland
I miss 'ole' 'bamy once again
and I think it's a sin

Well I heard Mr. Young sing about her
Well I heard ole Neil put her down
Well, I hope Neil Young will remember
a southern man don't need him around anyhow

Sweet home Alabama
where the skies are so blue
Sweet home Alabama
Lord, I'm coming home to you

In Birmingham they love the Gov'nor - Boo Boo Boo
Now we all did what we could do
Now Watergate does not bother me
does your conscience bother you - tell the truth

Now Muscle Shoals has got the swampers
and they've been known to pick a tune or two - yes they do
Lord they get me off so much
they pick me up when I'm feeling blue - now how about you?

[GOPisEvil]

74. .

Ain't about my pistol
Ain't about my boots
Ain't about no northern drives
Ain't about my southern roots
Ain't about my guitars, ain't about my big old amps
"It ain't rained in weeks, but the weather sure feels damp"
Ain't about excuses or alibis
Ain't about no cotton fields or cotton picking lies
Ain't about the races, the crying shame
To the fucking rich man all poor people look the same

Don't get me wrong It just ain't right
May not look strong, but I ain't afraid to fight
If you want to live another day
Stay out the way of the southern thing

Ain't about no hatred better raise a glass
It's a little about some rebels but it ain't about the past
Ain't about no foolish pride, Ain't about no flag
Hate's the only thing that my truck would want to drag

You think I'm dumb, maybe not too bright
You wonder how I sleep at night
Proud of the glory, stare down the shame
Duality of the southern thing

My Great Great Granddad had a hole in his side
He used to tell the story to the family Christmas night
Got shot at Shiloh, thought he'd die alone
From a Yankee bullet, less than thirty miles from home
Ain't no plantations in my family tree
Did NOT believe in slavery, thought that all men should be free
"But, who are these soldiers marching through my land?"
His bride could hear the cannons and she worried about her man

I heard the story as it was passed down
About guts and glory and Rebel stands
Four generations, a whole lot has changed
Robert E. Lee
Martin Luther King
We've come a long way rising from the flame
Stay out the way of the southern thing

The Southern Thing
By Patterson Hood
Drive By Truckers

[Guaranteed]

69. I don't think they would have prospered.

The only thing that really keeps them afloat is the billions in subsidies they get from the feds.

[coda]

70. "Some of you laugh, to scorn the idea of bloodshed...

....as a result of secession, but let me tell you what is coming.

Your fathers and husbands, your sons and brothers, herded at the point of a bayonet. You may, after the sacrifice of countles millions in treasure and hundreds of thousands in precious lives, as a bare possibility, win Sounthern independence....but I doubt it.

The North is determined to preserve this Union. They are not a firey, impulsive people as you are, for they come from colder climes. But when they begin to move in a given direction, they move with the steady momentum and perseverence of a mighty avalanche...and what I fear is, they will overwhelm the South.

-- Sam Houston 1860-1861


Smartest man in Texas, maybe the South. He went around as Governor (and ex-Governor after the legislature dumped him) at great risk to his personal safety, giving great speeches, pleading with people to not vote for secession. I think aboout 25% listened.

[NuttyFluffers]

71. other. divided USA conquered and reverted back to colonies.

there were many european powers just itching to get their hands on america and that period of american history was one of the biggest opportunities. if they saw 2 divided powers to 'play politics' with we would have lost out big in that bargain and from our weakness we'd be reconquered.

[patricia92243]

72. I hope my ancestors would have had enough sense to move, or I'd be stuck

here and so poor that I couldn't move. I'm a Southerner to the bone, but I shudder to think where we would be now if we had succeeded at seceding.

[trof]

79. "That's What I Like About the South"

"That's What I Like About the South"

Let's go down to Alabamy, let's go see my dear old mammy,
Fried eggs and cookin' ham, and that's what I like about the South.
She's got baked ribs and candied yams, sugar cured Virginia ham,
Cellars full of those berry jams, and that's what I like about the South.

That's where your nerves are never shakin, where you're makin' no mistakin'
You should taste that layer cake, and that's what I like about the South.
Down where the trees grow tall, where everybody says "you all,"
You walk right in with a Southern drawl, and that's what I like about the South.

Here comes old parson with all the news, box-back shirt and button shoes,
All paid up with his union dues, and that's what I like about the South.
Tell me honey, tell me please, is this love or heart disease?
Got me shakin in my knees, and that's what I like about the South.

[JVS]

80. Confederacy splits over something or other, Balkanizes

Credibility of Northern government highly damaged. USA probably only extends as far west as Minnesota, and is in a tough position as the Southern states are in control of where most Union rivers meet the sea, thus giving them a strangle hold over midwestern commerce until the rail system is good enough to overcome that hinderace. Shipping on the great lakes would help.

"Let's say Lincoln had decided to allow the Southern states to exercise their right of secession in perpetuity"

What right?

[JHB]

86. Sounds Like time to plug:

Harry Turtledove:

Coming in August

Latest in his alternate history series:
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