What happens when Iraqis take over on June 30th ?

[kentuck]

The Bush self-imposed deadline is rapidly approaching. How will the Iraqis react to their newly found "freedom"?

[laura888]

1. According to Bill Kristol, the U.S. will definitely be around for a while.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46730-2004May21.html

<snip>

"If a provisional Iraqi sovereign government is to operate effectively from July until the elected government takes power in January, adequate security is necessary."

and

"...the immediate task is therefore the destruction of the armies and militias of the insurgency -- not taking and holding territory, not winning the hearts and minds of Iraqis, not conciliating opponents and critics, not gaining the approval of other nations. All of these can follow after victory over the violent insurrection."

</snip>

[kentuck]

3. Does that mean they have to take out al-Sadr ?

And who will take his place?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Other

2 and 6 for starters. Later, 3 and 5.

[Deja Q]

4. Become a country of several million mini-Saddams...

They'll still kill our troops, with a greater passion because of the torture, et al.

Bush* may have created a far worse situation. He* and his idiot ilk can croon "The world is safer without Saddam" but I still think that, in the process of removing one man (for Bush's* own personal reasons and hardly out of a genuine threat), we created several million mini-Saddams, all of which will want revenge against the US for what we have done to them. Indeed, has Bush* given the world more terrorists to fight? That's a scary thought, folks.

Bush and any supporters of this "war" are braindead imbeciles! They didn't bother to think ahead, much less think - their 'strategy' in this "war" has been practically non-existent. I won't repeat what I've said in 3 previous threads.

But are they braindead? Bush* said this war on terror would be long. By making more terrorists in a way that still has half the populace agreeing with him, Bush* could be assured years or decades of happy violence.

What's left to say? I think the world is boned at this point.

[bemildred]

5. Other

a.) A PR dog and pony show.
b.) Confusion as to who is in charge will increase.
c.) No change in military situation.

[kentuck]

9. I think there will be a change in the military situation....

Because Bush will wihdraw most of the troops from most of the villages in the Sunni Triangle. He would like to clean up most of the insurgents, like al-Sadr, before June 30th. However, they may keep their powder dry until after that date? I'm sure they are aware of June 30th....

[bemildred]

10. You may be right about the Sunni triangle.

They did seem to want to restrict the hot war to
al Sadr after the Faloojah debacle, but I think they
have accomplished nothing against al Sadr either.
The bullshit about al Sadr and his "army" is quite
deep, but if you dig up and read his statements he
has had one position right along and has not changed
it, despite all sorts of people kibtzing on his activities.
I am waiting to see what happens with the Karbala withdrawal,
but you can see that the fighting continues elsewhere.

I suppose what I am saying is that the military situation
will not change because the new set of stooges is installed.

[kentuck]

11. The US would like to see al-Sadr dead....

They do not need any troublemakers hanging around after June 30th...

[bemildred]

12. I imagine the US is not alone in that.

But so far they don't seem to be able to pull it off ...

[Jacobin]

6. All the new puppets will be targeted for attacks

and killed or wounded, one by one.

No one will believe that the Iraqis have any say in their own government.

Attacks on coalition forces will escalate even further.

The country will be in utter chaos as hundreds of thousands throng through the streets demanding that foreign forces leave their country.

The 'green zone' will begin to be effectively attacked, forcing U.S. troops to build bunkers in rural areas with multiple perimeters to keep out insurgents.

We will only be able to move about the country in tanks and helicopters.

(ok, most of this is already happening, but it will get worse)

[Sparkly]

7. Whatever messy scenario occurs, how will the Chimp avoid blame?

Will he blame it on the new Iraqi 'government'? Will he blame it on the Iraqi army? The Iraqi citizens? The "terrorists?" How will he continue to justify the invasion, and our continued mess there? I think this June 30th "transfer" is all about transferring blame.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

8. He probably will try to blame it on the "new leaders"

but that won't wash. This is bushies war and he will ultimately pay for it. Remember that saying "you go in there you own it".