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Since June 30 happens to be my birthday, I may have a skewed perspective on the obvious, but largely unanswered question about what "the handover" set for that date really means. Nonetheless it strikes me as plain that the administration has simply drawn a line in the sand. If Rove's as smart as he's said to be, then he's planned for a well-televised occasion of pomp & circumstance where the admin can assert Iraq's reborn, and name the new team which will "stay the course". That's to say it'll be a non-event, of almost entirely symbolic value, if that.
Like most such lines though, I wouldn't expect it to last for very long. It depends on the bombs being kept from raining on their parade. It depends on the abuse/torture story going away. It depends on people behaving. Not very likely in other words. Lets review the variables.
Nobody knows who will actually get the symbolic ruling sceptor. Supposedly the ground-rules for the interrum gov have been established: a year to get an elected gov in place, as I understand it. The UN's Brahimi been tapped to name names, mostly to give the admin credibility (read plausible deniability) w/ what happens afterward. It's also perhaps a bait & switch on getting the UN to be left holding the bag on the enevitable fallout. During the interrum before elections, the real elbow jockeying among the various competing parties/interests begins.
There's no dearth of competitors among the current crop in the Iraqi counsel, and elsewhere in the political sphere. The oft mentioned Sunnis, Shiites, & Kurds top most lists. Each of these groups has internal factions, namely the various Shiite clerics, old and upstart alike; Baathists and non-Baathists, as well as their own muslim extremists among the Sunnis, and the two sometimes warring Kurdish parties, each w/ connections in a "greater Kurdistan". Each sub-group has pervasive tribal influences. That's not to mention bordering countries, notably the Iran w/ its extensive religious connections, or the US's and regional oil interests for that matter.
The fact that Chalabi's now having his home raided during the wee hours tells us that the power struggle among the "in crowd" is getting more intense. In such times we can predict that the players will switch horses, push the envelope, and/or do whatever they can to gain advantage during the time of flux. Maybe the admin hopes the hot Iraqi summer will keep a lid on things.
As many have pointed out around here, Fallujah demonstrated how effectively our leader is at being a "Uniter", though I doubt he had militant Iraqi factions in mind.
Surprise, surprise our country's invasion & occupation have overturned the status quo and caused a whole slew of unintended consequences. IMHO, the powers that be try to overlook these inconveneinces, and keep their eyes on the prize (as they see it) of long-term US military bases in the region which are outside of the even more inconvenient Saudi and Kuwaiti nations.
Apparently, they were too obsessed w/ their visions of geopolitcal manipulation that they forgot about the old Greek myths about what eventually happens to those w/ the hubris to imagine themselves gods. Assuming, of course that they ever paid attention to those stories in boarding school in the first place, which seems pretty damn dubious.
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