CA math as I see it CRUZ Should win the plurality.

[Perky]

As this unfolds somethings will emerge.

Those in the GOP to the right of Arnold will HAVE to attack him to have any chance of winning. He will have to be portrayed as not a true believer and thusif you are in the GOP a vote for arnold is a traitorous act.

Gray has to scare the Dem base to the Polls in order to win. He therefore has to attack Arnold on issues of competence, (Jesse Ventura without the politcal sensibilitity.

McClintock and Simon should split the Right Wing.

Ubberoth will pull some of Riordans support..but probably not so much from the GOP moderates because he has openly said that He will only serve out Davis's term.

Huffington might get 5% and the Green Party guy will get around 5% as well


On the Dem Side I wish Garimaldi would grow a clue....He can't win. But he will pull about 10%. He might however just be working the Party for some concession down the road. ANd is squeesing Hard to get what he wants.

That Leave Cruz with about 30% of the Democratic base.


So

Simon 10%
Uebberoth 10%
McClintock 10%
Schwarzenegger 20%

Bustamante 30%
Garimaldi 10%

Huffington 5%
Green Party 5%

This sort of explains why Issa dropped out or was told to sit it out by the White House.

Here is the thing that is troubling. Why would Bush pledge his support for Arnold, when He is such a social liberal? The election is pretty much a lock on the percentages if everyone I mentioned stays in. And Dubya's support of Arnold is sure to enflame the Right?
Even if McClintock bows out so that Simon pulls the Right Wing....Bush has not helped himself with the rank and file either in the short term or the long term.

And here is the twist. If the right wing is enflamed but Arnold polls in the 30s a week before the election....They might even vote for Davis on the Recall if it comes down to a choice between Arnold and Davis.

Thoughts

[Gman]

1. This scenario looked plausible until the last sentence

the right wing won't vote for Davis no matter what. They may hold their noses and vote for a puke. They may also just stay home which, to me, would be more likely.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

4. There is a group called the California Business Roundtable

which is against the recall. They certainly don't want to gamble on an outcome. They know what they have in Davis.

[Julien Sorel]

2. The Right in California is an afterthought.

Not many fundamentalists, not many gun nuts or any of the other core crazies. So Bush supports the moderate, because if to have any chance of carrying the state, he needs broad-based moderate support, and supporting Armold makes Bush, in turn, look more moderate.

And of the candidates announced, Arnold has the best chance to win among the Republicans.

Pissing off California wingers doesn't hurt Bush in the slightest, because they can't really help him on their own.

[Perky]

5. Its not the CA right wing that is the problem

Its the Southern Right Wing... who will howl at Bush supporting someone sho is openly pro-choice and openly pro-gay.



This does not help him...although the wing nuts do have short attention spans.

[ferg]

6. lots of freepers, though

The far right controls the California Republican party. The "moderates" are pretty much invisible. These are people who voted for Simon because Riordan was too moderate for them.

If they're selling Arnie as a social liberal, the right wingers will vote for someone like Simon again.

[Perky]

8. Right!

And Simon Has to go after Arnold on a "liberal" agenda. Which will only serve to scare the left into voting rather than allowing either Simon or Arnold to win with a Scant 30% of the vote.

So either the vote gets out , and defeats the recall or its a tight tough loss.....and Crus Cruises....I don't think we are in bad shape at all.

[tedoll78]

3. I'm calling it for Bustamante.

He has the Latino vote locked, and sensible liberals will realize that he's their best chance.

[rocktivity]

12. I agree that Bustimante is in the driver's seat

But only partly because of the Latino vote. I think it will have more to do with the public finally seeing this recall as the attempted political coup that it is.


rocknation

[Perky]

16. I would like to think that but

A coup by definition is a coordinated effort to seize power. There are 4 Republicans running and they are bound to beat each other up.... If for no other reason to be ther heir apparent 3 years hence.

Issa wanted a Coup no doubt... but now he is out of the race.

They might get Davis.... but the result will be a pyrric victory at best

[nbsmom]

15. Y'know, I like Bustamante

And I think it's great that he's on the ticket as an alternative in case the recall goes through.

But this sensible liberal is asking (for the dozenth time on this board) if it's going to be Bustamante anyway, why hold the recall at all? If Davis were to resign, wouldn't Bustamante be the appointed successor?

I've posted this elsewhere, but I'll say it again...this 'recall' only favors the Re:puke:s with high name recognition, like Ahnuld.



So I'm not sure why we need to spend $65 million and cross our fingers if there's a more direct way of achieving the same desired result. The other important thing to keep in mind is that if it actually goes to an election, the variables are almost too immense to contemplate and are totally stacked against a Dem win. (New systems/old systems/poor precincts/rushed ballot assembly, you name it.)

[jfxgillis]

7. Not bad .... but not perfect

I think Arianna and the Greens had an understanding, so bump her up some, knock the Green down a peg.

Also, you are VASTLY underestimating Ueberroth's appeal. He's a man of substance WIRED into the CA business establishment. Asuming Davis can't get the NO vote, it'll be a catfight between Bustamante, Ueberroth and McLintock by the end .... Bustamante probably prevails, but I repeat, don't underestimate Ueberroth.

[Perky]

10. Why would Moderate Dems vote for Ubberoth?

Is Cruz that objectionable?

Why would moderat republicans vote in Droves for a person who would have no coattails and no mandate. Would face a hostile Statehouse on both sides of the ailse. A Cabinet which is elected not appointed and all Democratic and a Lt. Gov, who he barely beats in the election.

The Righ wing will not gravitate towards him because he assuredly will come out pro-choice.

[jfxgillis]

14. Because

Ueberroth is a genuine old-school, establishment Republican.

With the established business community on his side (Chamber of Commerce/Rotarian types) but without all the lunatic-Right baggage, Ueberroth comes off as the perfect compromise.

[Perky]

17. So you suggest

That he will take the Riordan vote? yeah probably...but how big is that vote goinf to be? There guys sits on the sideline.

He does not strike me as someone who is going to push hard to get out the vote. Aand He has no organaization Hard as hell to do with a two month campaign.

[Perky]

18. and another thing

I have to wonder how much support the party will be to him? They have all the mailing lists.

[jfxgillis]

19. Uh-huh

Basically, Ueberroth is saying to Riordan, "If you don't have the balls to rally your own constituency, I'll take it, thank you very much."

I think Ueberroth can win a solid slice of the vote by adopting a dignified and serious mien while everyone else is going apeshit.

And look, he has a lifetime's worth of chits to call in, INCLUDING Geirge W. Bush his own self; Ueberroth had to personally okay GWB's unorthodox equity arrangements in the purchase of the Texas Rangers. He saved the LA Olympics.

He can maximum fundraise with minimum effort.

And the party lists don't belong to any of the candidates.

[Perky]

28. And he is running as an independent anyway

So he runs a media-only campaign. which might be effective. Still he is running as a consensus caretaker independent...mot going to excite diehards on either side.

So he splits the middle with Huffington and Arnold?

The repukes spit the right with two candidates

and Garimendi, Bustamante and I guess Camejo split the right.



THe math still favors Cruz

[ButterflyBlood]

9. Both Arianna and Camejo (Green Party) won't run

Camejo said he'd drop out if Arianna entered.

[Perky]

11. Funny???!!!???

He has said he was running today and Arianna announced yesterday.

[ButterflyBlood]

13. hmm

well he did say that before when it was unclear whether she'd run

[lcordero]

20. That is all garbage

The religious right is going to vote to put a Republican in California even if it's Arnold.

Don't buy into the bullshit propaganda.

Gray Davis can't even attack Arnold on issues of competence since he himself wouldn't make the hard decisions.

[okieinpain]

22. I agree with you. I think the repugs would vote for a dead man if he had

R beside his name. hell they might even vote for a man with a live boy. morals are only for dems.

[Perky]

23. Tou could not be more wrong!!!

I hang out with several of them...(Heck...Jesus Hang out with Tax Collectors..it is the least they could do)

THe right wing love Bill simon out here,,,,,,,, They are pretty incensed about the President supporting a pro-choice repblican.

[okieinpain]

34. but I bet they will vote for arnuld. and bush too.

.

[JackSwift]

21. Garamendi will get no future considerations and knows it

that is not how elective politics is played. You are owed nothing for your past obedience unless you are so powerful that you are given consideration under the fig leaf you were loyal in the past. That doesn't mean that if you are disloyal you will get things, again, you have to be powerful already. It's like a bank loan: you can only be lent money if you can prove you don't need it.

By the way, I think Garamendi is a great insurance commissioner who has a lot to clean up after Gillespie and QuackenShrub. I'd like him to be ins com for life. It is the only non-term limit state wide elective office (other than judges). I'd like to see him step aside for Cruz.

[Perky]

25. Jack Swift

You might be right about Garamendi..

What is your perception of the percentages. Cruz seems to be a lock at about 30-35% And the repukes split three ways

[Walt Starr]

24. Too much chaos to make any meaningful predictions

Seriously, there's a guy named Michael Jackson who has been certified on the ballot. If you don't think that won't have an effect I think you're fooling yourself.

If hundreds get certified, it will be such a mess that there will be no way to determine beforehand what will happen because the only effective poll will be the actual election. If there are more than 200 names on the ballot, you cannot produce a meaningful sample to determine who will win.

This chaos effect does play into your thoughts to a degree, but only if Davis supports the "No on Recall, Bustamante Cruz to replace" position. Clearly if 90% of those who vote for keeping Davis in office also vote to replace him with Cruz, Cruz will win hands down.

[AP]

26. The model for the Recall is LA Senate race '02

Because, in LA, you have to win with a majority of the vote, the Republicans kept throwing in candidates who chipped away at the Democratic support for Landrieu. None of the Republicans needed to get 50% plus one of the vote. They just needed to take away some small portion of voters to get Landrieu below 50%. (And then, if there was a run-off that mattered in terms of Senate control, they'd dump a ton of money into the race backing one Republican).

Here, however, it's a little different. The Republicans need to get Democrats (1) to stay away from the polls, and/or (2) give them a candidate which makes them think, maybe I'll vote yes to get this one guy out of 25 in office.

They're achieving the first aim by making it look like a circus. The point of AS announcing on Leno is because it makes it less dignified, and like a circus. If Dems think nothing is at stake, that it's a circus, they'll be less likely to vote. To achieve the second part by throwing in a dozen candidates who will appeal to small segments of the population -- the sportsman, the entertainment fan, the whatever. Each one is designed to get a small group of voters to vote yes on the recall who might have voted no. But you can be sure that there's one Republican they all want to win and who will stop the Enron investigation in its track and who will continue to turn over middle class savings and wealth to the big corporations and who will make sure every CA'ian votes on a paperless electronic voting machine in 2004.

[Democat]

27. Polls shows that Cruz is tied with Arnold without Garimaldi

Several polls taken this week have shown somewhat more than half the electorate supporting the recall and about four-in-ten supporting Davis. On the election of a potential successor, the poll showed that Schwarzenegger had support of about one-quarter of the electorate and that the margin by which Bustamante trailed him - several percentage points - was roughly equivalent to Garamendi’s support.

http://www.mercedsun-star.com/news/newsview.asp?c=69502

[Perky]

31. Its to chatoic right now to make polls valuable

Every ones numbers are soft. nd I don't know if this polling was with likely voters or not...

Likely voters are less likely to vote for Arnold at the end of the day.

[ewagner]

29. Interesting thread

Obviously you posters know a lot about the inside of CA politics and I yield to your judgement.

What I think I hear you saying is that coalitions and deals are going to be cut all over the place and in the end, it's still too chaotic to predict with any certainty.

Is that a good assessment?

[robbedvoter]

30. It's possible if people come to vote. Even defeat of recall is possible

As for Arianna 5 - Green 5 - these are the same 5 - they actually officially tag team.
As for the GOP field, I am expecting tearful withdrawals( horse heads in bed) from all but Ahnuld - because W said Ahnuld would be good and Rove has been in this (read MWO, Buzzflash). Nevertheless, if people do show up for vote, this can be solved well.

[Capn Sunshine]

32. You are making the leap that the recall will PASS

remember this is the first part of the ballot. It appears as of this writing that the recall passing is highly doubtful. Up to the minute polling this morning shows that it's 50-50 at this point , which means to me if we get out the overwhelming democratic majority in this state, the recall question goes down.

The rest is just what ifs.

It is important to defeat the recall on its face for a number of reasons. Most notably, if we demonstrate to the Financial community that our state government is so unstable as to be caught up in a whim by less than 10% of the states population at any moment,OUR BOND RATING WILL SUFFER PERMANENTLY
This will cost the people of California billions in extra interest payments, billions that should be spent elsewhere.

If you vote yes on the recall, you are making California as creditworthy as a Banana Republic.

Please email me at [e-mail] if you wish to join our internet action group to get out the vote against this republican generated plan to disable our future.

[Perky]

33. Yeah you know

The recall vote is increasing being overshadowed as is Gray himself.

I am not a fan of Gray but I am ambivalent about the recall vote I will vote for him and Cruz.

Can we assume that those who bote againts Gray will all vote for someone othere than Bustamante? I can see lots of Dems holding there nose and voting for Gray or voting no and voting for Cruz.

[GalleryGod]

35. Bustamante & Sanchez Sisters: Carpe Diem! Time in Cali!

My brother is inside the Bustamant effort....he says a Big Hispanic Summit this Weekend with the Sanchez Sisters and Bustamant seeing this as "their Moment" for 1st Hispanic Governor...and Why Not:shrug: They've waited long enough:loveya: would lock up Cali for Dems for the next 20 years.:kick: :kick: :kick: