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1. The pretentions of the conservative wing notwithstanding, PA will probably go Kerry this year. The only hope Bush has for putting PA into the GOP column is a large "safety" vote from the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and from a good number of union folks farther out. Spector is well-liked by the PA unions, especially in the Pittsburgh area, such that many union folks in PA don't even feel like they have to hold their nose to vote for him. He lends them an ear, in any case. many of these smae types of folks won't mind doing a GOP ticket vote if Spector is there and they are hohum about Bush. These same folks will be incensed if Toomey is running on a ticket with Bush, as will a host of urbanites and suburbanites who despise Toomey's socially conservative positions.
2. Democrats may take the Senate seat if up against Toomey. The GOpers are fond of saying that Toomey has consistently won large margins in his home district, "traditionally Dem," as they see it (in 2002 he trounced his dDem opponent by 25,000 votes of less than 175,000 total cast). This is half-true - it is in fact one of the most difficult to read districts in the country (it voted for Gore in 2000 at the same time that it elected Toomey to a second term). Toomey also has never run against an incumbent in that district, the previous 3-term Democrat Paul McHale (who won by only 400 votes in his 1994 re-election bid) having given up his seat. The conservative GOPers want to generalize Toomey's success in the 15th to all of PA, but this is a very strange operation indeed, given the strange make-up of his district (Allentown, etc.) - the tension between developing white-collar and traditional blue collar populations. The conservative s delusion that Toomey's 15th District success can be applied to the whole state is clearly viewed as a delusion by the Bush campaign.
Since they assume that the conservatives will vote for Bush anyway, the decision to back Spector is geared toward the moderates and sometime GOP voters (gun folks who are also union folks, really).
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