Dubya in Trouble.......Dick Morris' take on the latest polls

[RedEarth]

I'm not a big fan of Dick Morris, but he offers an interesting opinion on the most recent polls.


April 20, 2004 -- BOTH of the polling organizations that track the presidential race in daily surveys have concluded that the contest has settled into a stalemate. Scott Rasmussen reports that for eight of the last nine days, President Bush has gotten 45 to 46 percent of the vote, while Sen. John Kerry ranged from 44 to 46 percent. John Zogby shows Kerry ahead by three and reports little movement either way.

This "tie" is terrible news for the Bush camp.

One of the (very few) immutable laws of politics is that the undecided vote almost always goes against the incumbent. Consider the past seven presidential elections in which an incumbent ran (1964, '72, '76, '80, '84, '92, and '96) - that is, look at the final vote versus the last Gallup or Harris polls. My analysis shows that the challengers (Goldwater, McGovern, Carter, Reagan, Mondale, Perot, Clinton, and Dole) got 85 percent of the undecided vote. Even incumbents who won got only 15 percent of those who reported that they were undecided in the final polls.

So . . . when Bush and Kerry are tied, the challenger really has the upper hand.

More bad news for Bush: Democrats usually grow 2-3 points right before Election Day as downscale voters who have not paid much attention to the election, suddenly tune in and "come home" to their traditional Democratic Party moorings. Remember, virtually every poll (except Zogby) showed Bush slightly ahead of Al Gore as the 2000 election approached - yet Gore outpolled Bush by 500,000 votes.

more.......

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/22968.htm

[VolcanoJen]

1. Morris, Schmorris.

Even if he's relaying good news for Dems, I doubt his intentions and motivations for announcing such "news."

[buddy22600]

2. he is just saying this to rile up repubs to get more votes for bush

[DeaconBlues]

3. the first and probably last time I will agree with the toe-sucker

I always doubt Morris' motives, but I believe what he says about undecideds is accurate. Definitely no reason to get complacent, though!

[Misunderestimator]

4. What an insightful point

"Remember, virtually every poll (except Zogby) showed Bush slightly ahead of Al Gore as the 2000 election approached - yet Gore outpolled Bush by 500,000 "

[Gman]

5. Can't say I disagree with Morris' analysis

Don't forget Morris got Clinton reelected in '96. He knows his stuff as well as, if not better than, anyone else.

The 30 point gender gap Bush has can't be easily closed either. The figurative "Oh baby, I'm sorry and I'm gonna do better." line Bush will no doubt try to use with women to close this gap will be seen for what it is by women.

I see a lot of the alcoholic Bush in this with the macho male talk at the expense of alienating women. (Remember Bush is a "dry alcoholic". He never went through a 12 step program to deal with being an alcoholic. Therefore he retains all the characteristics of an alcoholic.) This goes back to the days when Bush would disappear to Mexico on a binge for a few days leaving Laura to take care of the baby twins by herself not knowing where he was or if he was even alive. The alcoholic Bush would, again, show back up with some line of bull and swear he would never do it again. Its the West Texas way.

The vast majorty of women are not hopelessly codependent like Laura, and will see through Bush's crap in a heartbeat. This is why Bush has little chance of closing the gender gap.

Stick a fork in him.

[maxsolomon]

6. wish fufillment

bush will win.

one way or another. america IS that ignorant.

[DeaconBlues]

8. How is Morris' commentary wish-fulfillment?

I would think that he would like nothing better than to have Bush win in November

[robbedvoter]

7. Now I'm worried. This guy has been consistently wrong since

he stopped feeding on that toe...

[jeanmarc]

9. Morris is off his stupid pills

FedEx must have been late on his shipment.

[MidwestTransplant]

10. And for the bad news....

Morris' predictions are alwasy wrong it seems.