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We know Bu$h will do anything to get reelected. And we know he desperately needs to do something that is positive and will make him look like a hero.
My guess is that in typical Rovian fashion, this July, Bu$h will bring the troops home. We will draw down our forces and leave the cities, withdraw to our bases and focus on protecting the oil fields and pipelines. The rest of the country will have to fend for themselves.
In America, Iraq will quickly fade from the evening news, to be replaced by big homecoming rallies at bases across the nation. Feel good stories about young families happy to be back together. Sprinkle in a few casualties that are returning to normal life, like the guy that went jogging with Bu$h last week.
Bu$h can attend a selection of these homecomings and give big speeches about how great things are, what a huge success their mission in Iraq turned out to be, and that we're beating the terrorists. Maybe even put on that old flight suit one more time.
Of course, these homecomings of US Troops will provide great pics for the campaign. There will be lot's of emotional young people hugging and kissing, little kid's running to into their parent's arms, all kinds of tug at the heart strings stuff, to stir up his patriotic, rah-rah, fundie base.
Of course, in the long term this won't work either but so what? All W cares about is getting reelected and the only way he even has a hope of winning is to bring the majority of the troops and declare that our successful mission in Iraq is done. We won.
Then after the reselection, all these troops will all get sent back to go after Syria and/or Iran.
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