Hypothetical Question about elections

[bluestateguy]

Let's say we have an election in an open seat US congressional distict. The district is a microcosm of America. It voted 49%-49% in the 2000 presidential race. Its racial makeup, union membership, income levels and religious orientation are identical to that of the nation.

The Republican candidate is a white, male Protestant, with a background in local politics and business. He runs a standard cookie cutter conservative campaign, though he avoids shrill and divisve rhetoric. He pledges his full support for all of the Bush/Cheney agenda, tax cuts, huge increases in funding for the Pentagon, CIA and FBI, restraints on social welfare spending, privatization of Social Security and Medicare and opposition to gun control. He opposes abortion and gay rights and supports school prayer. He supports all of the Bush foreign policy without hesitation. Bush, Cheney, and other Republican and conservative elites come to the district to campaign for him and campaign ads show him warmly embracing George W. Bush. He also carefully courts traditional Republican constituencies like the Christian Coalition, the NRA and business groups.

The Democratic candidate is also a white, male Protestant, with a background in local poltics and business equal to that of his opponent. His name is known equally as well as his opponent. He runs as a "conservative Democrat" and embraces the DLC. He openly repudiates core Democratic constituencies, refuses to speak at an NAACP meeting, openly criticizes the AFL-CIO, calls for a crackdown on illegal immigrants, advocates a wonkish privatization plan for Social Security and Medicare and calls for tax cuts only slightly smaller than his Republican opponent. He openly supports the Bush foreign policy and pledges that if elected he will "support President Bush most of the time". He repudiates Bill Clinton's offer to campaign for him in the district and instead invites senators Zell Miller, Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson to campaign for him. His campaign ads show him shaking hands with George W. Bush 2 1/2 years ago at a routine White House reception, as the narrator calls him a "new" and "different kind of Democrat."

Both candidates are equally funded and spend an equal amount of money. Both candidates are equally physically attractive and equally good public speakers. There are no 3rd party candidates.

Who wins this election?

And please don't waste my time with "it depends" or introduce some other variable that I did not think of. The purpose here is to hold all other variables equal except for the Republican being a typical Republican and the Democrat being a conservative Democrat.

[Ani Yun Wiya]

1. And the winner is...

The republican.

[dfong63]

2. given a choice

... between a real republican and an imitation republican, people will usually choose the real thing.

[Exultant Democracy]

3. Tada, the Repug,

because the core dems won't bother to even vote for the Faux Dem.

[tomp]

4. there are no winners in this scenario.

america loses all around.